Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.MARINE UPDATE...Cameras and few reporting stations along Mobile
Bay and the Mississippi Sound show that visibilities have dropped
significantly. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for said areas
into Thursday morning.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/...First batch of
thunderstorms has developed over northern Gulf waters and is
currently moving onshore across the local area. These storms will
bring gusty winds and heavy rain over the next few hours, but the
severe threat remains limited at this time.

The greater potential for severe weather continues to be focused
into two waves, one this afternoon/evening and another Thursday morning.
While this morning convection will likely work over any
instability that has developed thus far, recovery is expected by
this afternoon and evening as daytime heating leads to ~1000 J/kg
MLCAPE across much of the area. This, coupled with a strengthening
low-level jet (850 mb winds increasing to around 50 knots), will
produce an environment capable of supporting organized convection,
including supercells, by late afternoon hours. Storms will be
capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and possibly a
few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight
Risk over our entire area in their latest 1630Z update.

Instability wanes during overnight hours (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and
wind shear becomes more unidirectional as the surface low passes
to our north. These factors will lead to a decreasing tornado
threat as we head into tonight and Thursday morning. However,
despite low-level shear becoming unidirectional, the LLJ itself
continues to strengthen to around 60 knots by early Thursday
morning. This will maintain the damaging straight-line wind threat
as storms should be able to mix some of that energy down to the
surface. This will especially be the case for a squall line that
is progged to develop along the cold front and push through the
area Thursday morning and afternoon. This second pulse of
convection will also introduce a greater threat for flooding as
more widespread heavy rain moves into the area. Currently
expecting widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with local
amounts up to 8 inches possible. The greatest flooding threat
will exist along the coast and over southwest and south-central
Alabama counties, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through Thursday afternoon. With the strong onshore flow, we have
opted to issue a Wind Advisory for our coastal counties on
Thursday. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect along the beaches
of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle this evening through
early Friday morning as well, and we will also have to monitor
for the potential of coastal flooding, but as of now all guidance
shows water levels along the coast remaining below minor flood
criteria as the peak time of strongest onshore flow Thursday
morning coincides with astronomical low tides across the region.

The cold front and associated squall line push out of the area by
late Thursday evening, with a cooler and drier west to northwest
flow setting up in its wake Thursday night. Temperatures will be
warm today (low 70s) and mild tonight (upper 50s and low 60s) due
to the onshore flow and cloud cover. Temps on Thursday begin to
drop over the western half of the area due to early FROPA timing,
with highs ranging from low 70s east of I-65 to low 60s west of
I-65. Lows Thursday night will be much colder in the wake of the
FROPA, dipping to the mid 30s and low 40s. /49

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Generally dry
conditions Friday and Friday night as a surface high pressure
ridge drifts east across the area, but will reintroduce isolated
to scattered showers Saturday and Saturday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance moves east across the area. By late Saturday
night high pressure will begin to rebuild into the area from the
west. /12

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...A surface high
pressure ridge over the area early Sunday will be weakening
through Wednesday as a short wave trough digs from the southern
California coastal area to southwestern Texas by early Wednesday.
With this, a frontal boundary over the plains states early Sunday
will moving into western Tennessee and southwest into Louisiana by
early Monday. This boundary will then remain quasi-stationary over
the Tennessee Valley through early Wednesday. By late Wednesday,
the aforementioned shortwave will have weakened and be moving into
the Tennessee Valley region as well, and begin moving a cold front
toward our forecast area from the west. Generally dry conditions
Sunday and Sunday night, but chance for showers and thunderstorms
increases Monday through Wednesday as the forecast area will be in
the warm, moist and somewhat unstable airmass near and south of
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier in the extended time frame.
/12

MARINE...Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected over area
waters into Thursday as a strong cold front approaches from the
west. Another round of rain is expected to develop tonight, and with
warm Gulf flow over cool waters over area bays and near shore
waters, fog, some locally dense, mixing in with the rain is expected
through tonight. After the front passes Thursday, strong to very
strong westerly flow will follow. Have upgraded the Gale Watch to a
Gale Warning for open Gulf waters, with frequent gusts above 34
knots expected.

A surface ridge will move quickly east over area waters Friday into
Friday night, with onshore flow returning by Saturday. Flow will
initially be light, but is expected to become more moderate as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. With the front stalling
north of area waters, flow will remain onshore into the coming week,
with a shift in direction to east to southeast as the surface ridge
settles over the Eastern Seaboard.
/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ALZ052>060-
     261>266.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
508 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061115-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
508 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for coastal portions of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
Mississippi, portions of southwest Alabama, south central
Alabama, the western Florida panhandle beginning 3:00 PM CST
Wednesday until 6:00 PM CST Thursday.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal portions of Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle beginning 9:00 PM CST Wednesday
until 6:00 AM CST Friday.

Heavy rainfall is likely Wednesday and Thursday, with several rounds
of training showers and thunderstorms expected to bring rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches area-wide, with local amounts of 6 inches
or more possible. Severe storms with damaging winds are also expected,
along with the potential for tornadoes, mainly from late Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning.

Areas of dense fog will be possible tonight, especially along the
coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for coastal portions of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle until 12:00 AM CST
Saturday.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
Mississippi, portions of southwest Alabama, south central
Alabama, the western Florida panhandle beginning 3:00 PM CST
Wednesday until 6:00 PM CST Thursday.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal portions of Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle beginning 9:00 PM CST Wednesday
until 6:00 AM CST Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please go to weather.gov/mob for additional information.

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks may be required
through Tuesday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-061115-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
508 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters from
Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM, the coastal waters from
the Okaloosa/Walton county line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM,
Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound and western Florida bay waters.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Mobile Bay, Mississippi
Sound and western Florida bay waters beginning 6:00 PM CST
Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Alabama and western
Florida waters out 60 nm beginning 6:00 PM CST Wednesday.

A Gale Watch is in effect for the Alabama and western Florida
waters out 60 nm beginning 3:00 PM CST Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters from
Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM, the coastal waters from
the Okaloosa/Walton county line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM,
Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound and western Florida bay waters
until 12:00 PM CST Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Mobile Bay, Mississippi
Sound and western Florida bay waters beginning 6:00 PM CST
Wednesday until 6:00 AM CST Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Alabama and western
Florida waters out 60 nm beginning 6:00 PM CST Wednesday until
3:00 PM CST Thursday.

A Gale Watch is in effect for the Alabama and western Florida
waters out 60 nm beginning 3:00 PM CST Thursday until 6:00 AM CST
Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
127 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

FLZ205-052015-
Okaloosa Inland FL-
127 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CST...

At 127 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located near Baker, or 5
miles west of Crestview, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview and Baker.

LAT...LON 3066 8679 3089 8679 3094 8639 3065 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 263DEG 35KT 3074 8667

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
323 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-052215-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
323 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
MOBILE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 323 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located near Tanner
Williams, or 15 miles north of Grand Bay, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Chickasaw,
Satsuma, Creola, Chunchula, Axis, Semmes, Tanner Williams, I65 And
I165, Mobile Regional Airport, Wilmer, I65 And AL 158 and I10 And
I65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8841 3074 8851 3082 8851 3111 8790
      3103 8796 3102 8795 3102 8790 3110 8789
      3095 8787 3088 8799 3083 8794 3076 8802
      3069 8801 3074 8803 3068 8802 3068 8800
      3062 8806 3055 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 244DEG 36KT 3069 8842

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N PACE                30.66N 87.17W
02/05/2020                   SANTA ROSA         FL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED ON LUTHER FOWLER ROAD IN
            PACE, FL.

&&

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE PACE              30.61N 87.15W
02/05/2020                   SANTA ROSA         FL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED AT PACE HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW GONZALEZ          30.56N 87.32W
02/05/2020  M7.03 INCH       ESCAMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7.03 INCHES OF RAIN, SPOTTER REPORTED, 2
            MILES WSW OF GONZALES, FL NEAR PENSACOLA.

&&

SRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
555 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ALZ051-060030-
Choctaw AL-
555 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CST...

At 555 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Lisman, or 10 miles northwest of Butler, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman and Pennington.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for southwestern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3228 8794 3230 8794
      3230 8800 3228 8801 3228 8802 3226 8801
      3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804 3211 8805
      3209 8804 3207 8806 3207 8810 3205 8812
      3192 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 239DEG 49KT 3219 8837

JLH