Alert archive / Alabama / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 16, NWS Mobile, AL

February 4, 2020Covington County, Escambia County, Alabama; Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Feb 4, 2020, 9:52 PM CST for Covington County, Escambia County, Alabama; Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It took effect at Feb 6, 2020, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 4, 2020, 9:52 PM CST (03:52 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 6, 2020, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Feb 6, 2020, 8:55 PM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Blackwater River (AL) near Baker (BAKF1).

Action stage
6 ft
Minor stage
11 ft
Moderate stage
16 ft
Major stage
24 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02370000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

902 
WGUS44 KMOB 050352
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

...The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a flood warning for the 
following rivers in Alabama...Florida... 

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington
  Counties.
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties.
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and 
  Santa Rosa Counties.
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties.
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County.

.Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over the next 24 hours. As a result...river
levels are forecast to rise and a flood warning is now in effect. It is 
emphasized that the following forecast is based on the expected rainfall during 
the next 24 hours. If less rainfall occurs...it may be necessary to revise this 
stage forecast downward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-060351-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0014.200208T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.200208T1400Z.200210T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Saturday morning until further notice
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was...13.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 31.0 feet by Sunday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-060351-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0015.200208T0508Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.200208T0508Z.200210T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Friday evening until further notice
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was...11.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday before midnight and continue to 
  rise near 25.4 feet by Sunday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-060351-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200207T1108Z-200208T1708Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200207T1108Z.200208T0000Z.200208T1108Z.UU/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Blackwater River Near Baker
* From late Thursday night until Saturday morning
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was...2.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to rise near
  11.9 feet by Friday evening. 
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of secondary roads and lowlands from around 
  Baker to downstream of Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-113-060351-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0017.200208T0600Z-200208T1800Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.200208T0600Z.200208T0600Z.200208T1200Z.NO/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* From late Friday night until Saturday afternoon
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was...3.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise near 10.0 feet by early Saturday morning.
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$

FLC091-060351-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200207T1824Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200207T1824Z.200208T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Shoal River Near Crestview
* From Friday afternoon until further notice
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was...4.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early Friday afternoon and continue to 
  rise near 10.5 feet by late Friday night.
* At 11.0 feet...Flooding becomes a threat to the Trevor Court and Rattlesnake 
  Bluff areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$
8 follow-up statements
362 
WGUS84 KMOB 051637
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties. 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0014.200208T1424Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.200208T1424Z.200210T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 9AM Wednesday the stage was 13.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 32.6 feet by Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.200208T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.200208T1200Z.200210T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 11.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 25.8 feet by Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC053-FLC033-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0013.200207T1014Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200207T1014Z.200209T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 9.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* At 19.0 feet...Low lying pastures will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200207T0237Z-200208T2324Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200207T0237Z.200207T1800Z.200208T1724Z.UU/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From tomorrow evening until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 2.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue to rise 
  near 13.2 feet by Friday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by .
* At 14.0 feet...Flooding of East Park in Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-113-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.200207T0600Z-200209T1000Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.200207T0600Z.200208T0000Z.200209T0400Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Saturday night...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* From early Friday morning until late Saturday night.
* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 3.2 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and continue to 
  rise near 11.5 feet by Friday evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by .
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$

FLC091-061636-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200207T1012Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200207T1012Z.200208T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 4.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to rise near
  11.2 feet by Saturday morning.
* At 11.0 feet...Flooding becomes a threat to the Trevor Court and Rattlesnake 
  Bluff areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$
032 
WGUS84 KMOB 052319
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
519 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties. 
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-062319-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0022.200208T0900Z-200210T1912Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.200208T0900Z.200209T0600Z.200210T1312Z.NO/
519 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From Saturday morning until Monday afternoon.
* At 4 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 27.8 feet by early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by Monday.
* At 27.0 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-062319-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T1730Z-200207T2242Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T1730Z.200207T0600Z.200207T1642Z.UU/
519 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From tomorrow late morning until Friday afternoon.
* At 05PM Wednesday the stage was 5.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 12.7 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by .
* At 14.0 feet...Flooding of East Park in Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-113-062319-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.200206T0840Z-200207T2136Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.200206T0840Z.200207T0000Z.200207T1536Z.NO/
519 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* From after midnight tomorrow until Friday afternoon.
* At 5 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise near 11.1 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage
  by Friday.
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$

FLC091-062319-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200207T1012Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200207T1012Z.200208T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
519 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* At 3 PM Wednesday the stage was 4.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to rise near
  11.2 feet by Saturday morning.
* At 11.0 feet...Flooding becomes a threat to the Trevor Court and Rattlesnake 
  Bluff areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$
518 
WGUS84 KMOB 060112
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater affecting Clarke...Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties. 
  
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties. 
  
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

  Murder Creek At Brewton affecting Escambia County. 
  
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-070112-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0019.200207T0340Z-200208T1108Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.200207T0340Z.200207T1200Z.200208T0508Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Murder Creek At Brewton
* From tomorrow late evening until late Friday night.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 23.3 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Friday night .
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of Highway 29 begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC023-025-129-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0014.200209T0712Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.200209T0712Z.200211T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From early Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and continue to 
  rise near 32.3 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 29.0 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock should be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-070112-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.200208T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.200208T1200Z.200211T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 26.3 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC047-099-131-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.200209T0540Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200209T0540Z.200210T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From Saturday before midnight until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 40.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday before midnight and continue to
  rise near 67.2 feet by Sunday evening.
* At 66.0 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.200210T0645Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.200210T0645Z.200211T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater
* From early Monday morning until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.9 feet. 
* Forecast is to rise above flood stage Sunday night. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* At 43.0 feet...Access to Eureka Landing community stops, with access cut off.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC039-053-070112-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0022.200208T0900Z-200210T1912Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.200208T0900Z.200209T0600Z.200210T1312Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From Saturday morning until Monday afternoon.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 27.8 feet by early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Monday.
* At 27.0 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0013.200207T1130Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200207T1130Z.200209T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to rise near
  19.8 feet by early Sunday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...Low lying pastures will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T1541Z-200208T0640Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T1541Z.200207T0600Z.200208T0040Z.UU/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From tomorrow late morning until late Friday night.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 12.4 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage Friday evening.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of secondary roads and lowlands from around 
  Baker to downstream of Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-113-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.200206T1240Z-200208T1900Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.200206T1240Z.200207T1200Z.200208T1300Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* From tomorrow morning until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 11.7 feet Thursday night. The river will fall below flood stage Friday night .
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$

FLC091-070112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200206T2230Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200206T2230Z.200208T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 6 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.2 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 11.8 feet by Saturday morning.
* At 12.0 feet...Residential areas on the south bank of river near Crestview 
  become isolated. Rattlesnake Bluff Road closed.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$
698 
WGUS84 KMOB 060308
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
908 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070307-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T0940Z-200208T1130Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T0940Z.200207T0600Z.200208T0530Z.UU/
908 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From early tomorrow until late Friday night.
* At 8PM Wednesday the stage was 8.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  14.3 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by .
* At 14.5 feet...Flooding of West Park in Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$
890 
WGUS84 KMOB 060310
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
910 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070310-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T0940Z-200208T1130Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T0940Z.200207T0600Z.200208T0530Z.UU/
910 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From early tomorrow until late Friday night.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  14.3 feet by early Friday morning. 
* At 14.0 feet...Flooding of East Park in Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$
907 
WGUS84 KMOB 060926
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Murder Creek At Brewton affecting Escambia County.
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties. 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-070926-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0022.200209T1800Z-200210T1200Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.200209T1800Z.200209T1800Z.200210T0600Z.NO/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From Sunday early afternoon until Monday morning.
* At 2AM Thursday the stage was 16.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday early afternoon and continue to 
  rise near 27.0 feet by Sunday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood
  stage by .
* At 27.0 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-070926-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0013.200207T2230Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200207T2230Z.200210T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 3AM Thursday the stage was 11.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 18.8 feet by early Monday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...Low lying pastures will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070926-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T1630Z-200207T2120Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T1630Z.200207T0600Z.200207T1520Z.UU/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From late this morning until Friday afternoon.
* At 3AM Thursday the stage was 10.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise 
  near 12.1 feet by after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by .
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of secondary roads and lowlands from around 
  Baker to downstream of Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-113-070926-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.200207T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.200207T0000Z.200207T1800Z.200208T0900Z.NO/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* From this evening until Saturday morning.
* At 3AM Thursday the stage was 8.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to rise near 
  10.5 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by .
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$

FLC091-070926-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200206T1948Z-200210T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200206T1948Z.200208T0000Z.200210T1500Z.NO/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From this afternoon until Monday afternoon.
* At 2AM Thursday the stage was 6.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise near
  10.4 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage by .
* At 10.0 feet...Some flooding of trailers north of the Okaloosa Correctional 
  Institue. Water surrounds home on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

ALC053-060956-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200208T1108Z/
/BWMA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
326 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Murder Creek At Brewton
* until late Friday night.
* At 2AM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of Persimmon and Ann Streets will begin.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$
407 
WGUS84 KMOB 061544
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties.
  Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton affecting Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties.
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
Mississippi...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater affecting Clarke...Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties. 
  
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 
  
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-071545-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.200208T1251Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.200208T1251Z.200211T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  near 34.3 feet by early Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-071545-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.200208T1545Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.200208T1545Z.200211T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From late Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 11.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise near 26.8 feet by early Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC047-099-131-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.200209T0243Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200209T0243Z.200210T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From Saturday evening until further notice.
* At 8 AM Thursday the stage was 41.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday evening and continue to rise 
  near 69.1 feet by Monday morning.
* At 66.0 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.200210T0224Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.200210T0224Z.200211T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam - Tailwater
* From Sunday evening until further notice.
* At 5 AM Thursday the stage was 22.2 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday evening and continue to rise near
  45.7 feet by Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 43.0 feet...Access to Eureka Landing community stops, with access cut off.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC053-FLC033-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0013.200207T2248Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200207T2248Z.200209T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 12.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 17.8 feet by Saturday evening.
* At 17.0 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.200206T1800Z-200207T2040Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.200206T1800Z.200207T0600Z.200207T1440Z.UU/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From this afternoon until Friday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise near
  12.0 feet by after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage by
  Friday morning.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding of secondary roads and lowlands from around 
  Baker to downstream of Baker.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.200206T2040Z-200210T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.200206T2040Z.200208T0000Z.200210T1500Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From this afternoon until Monday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise near
  10.4 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage by Mnday 
  morning.
* At 10.0 feet...Some flooding of trailers north of the Okaloosa Correctional 
  Institue. Water surrounds home on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-071545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.200208T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200208T0800Z.200213T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* From early Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 15.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise near 25.5 feet by Thursday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 26.0 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

ALC039-053-061614-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-200210T1200Z/
/BWTA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Conecuh River At Brewton
* until Monday morning.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 16.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* At 27.0 feet...Flooding of farmland. Cattle should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

FLC091-113-061614-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
/MLNF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Coldwater Creek Near Milton
* until Saturday morning.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands and some fish camps will occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8696 3088 8694 3081 8700 3068 8696
 3068 8697 3080 8704                  

$$
258 
WGUS84 KMOB 070255
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
855 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and 
  Santa Rosa Counties.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070325-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200207T2040Z/
/BAKF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
855 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Blackwater River Near Baker
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 08PM Thursday the stage was 9.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* At 9.5 feet...Kennedy and Peaden Bridges are flooded upstream.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 4, 5:58 PM CST, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 5:58 PM CST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

.NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Upper level
ridging will begin to break down today as a deep, positively-
tilted upper level trough centered over the desert southwest
begins to shift eastward. An 850mb low-level jet will intensify
over our area to be between 45 and 60 knots by Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Strong mid and upper level jets will become
coincident with this LLJ during this time as well. As the trough
passes the central CONUS and moves over the southeast, it will
become more neutral and the stronger dynamics will shift to our
east. Expecting this to occur by Thursday evening, with zonal flow
taking hold as the trough exits our area completely by Friday.
The models have come into better agreement in recent runs;
although the GFS remains a touch more progressive with the system
compared to the ECMWF. With the structure and likely progression
of the upper level trough, not expecting a quick progression of
this system as the GFS has suggested.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift east over
the Atlantic today. Meanwhile, a cold front stretched over the
lower Ohio Valley will mingle with a low pressure system slowly
moving northeast over the ARKLATEX region. The front to the north
will slowly make its way southeast into tonight. The low pressure
system will eventually begin to advance eastward by Wednesday
evening, with a warm front forming along the border between
Tennessee and Kentucky and a cold front along the western edge of
Mississippi down into Louisiana. This will put most of
Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee in the warm sector Wednesday
evening and night. The cold front will begin to march across the
southeast through the night Wednesday and be partially through our
area by Thursday morning.

With the pattern described above, we are expecting rain and
thunderstorms to persist from late Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning, with two rounds of severe weather expected
during this time. The Storm Prediction Center also has our entire
area in a Slight Risk for severe storms in effect from Wednesday
morning through Thursday morning. The first round will be
Wednesday afternoon/evening (west of I-65), where the severe
weather potential is greatest due to our area being in the warm
sector as previously discussed. Models show SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values near 1000 J/kg around noon Wednesday, with bulk shear
values around 35 to 45 knots. By late afternoon and into the
evening, model soundings show quite an increase in shear. 0-1km
shear is between 35 and 40 knots, with 0-3km shear between 45 and
50 knots, and 0-1km SRH around 300 m2/s2. CAPE values will also be
between 500 and 1000 J/kg; although, 700-500mb lapse rates are
not super impressive through the evening, being generally around 6
C/km. Furthermore, high temperatures are forecast to reach the
mid-70s Wednesday afternoon, with dew points in the mid to upper
60s due to strengthening southerly flow ahead of the front. The
CAMs do suggest discrete cell formation late Wednesday
afternoon/evening before the main line moves through Thursday
morning. Overall, the main threats will be damaging winds and
heavy rain; although, tornadoes are also a possibility (especially
given the latest runs of the CAMs), along with some hail.
However, it will remain to be seen whether enough heating is
achieved to realize discrete severe storms ahead of the cold
front.

The second round of severe weather will be from late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning during cold FROPA. During this time,
model soundings show winds becoming more unidirectional for areas
west of I-65. CAPE values also decrease to be around 500 J/kg
around midnight Wednesday and continue to decrease through the
night. 0-1km SRH follows a similar pattern, being below 150 m2/s2
by midnight. However, surface and MUCAPE values do not decrease in
the east (southeast of I-65). In fact, CAPE increases from around
700-900 J/kg to around 1000 J/kg overnight Wednesday and into
Thursday morning. 0-1km shear is also around 35 to 40 knots, with
0-1km SRH around 250 m2/s2 during this time. Furthermore, the GFS
shows a significant increase of lift along the cold front Thursday
morning as the upper level dynamics coincide. So, there is a good
chance for deep convection/severe storms southeast of I-65,
particularly over the NW FL panhandle late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy
rain with this round of convection, but tornadoes are also
possible.

Furthermore, heavy rain will be likely throughout this event as
PWATs approach and or exceed record values. PWATs from model
soundings show around 1.9 inches Wednesday evening (in the west),
1.6 inches northwest of I-65 and 1.8 inches southeast of I-65
Thursday morning, and then around 1.6 inches by mid-day Thursday
in the east. At this time, total rainfall between 2-4 inches is
expected with locally higher amounts possible from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. The GFS also indicates increased
moisture up from the Gulf, Caribbean, and the Pacific, which would
point to a classic atmospheric river scenario for our area with
training storms likely (particularly with prolonged synoptic
forcing along with instability/deep convection). This scenario
could even double our rainfall totals, particularly near the Gulf
coast and over the NW FL panhandle; so, this will continue to be
monitored. The Weather Prediction Center does have all of our area
in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from Wednesday morning
through Thursday morning. Given all this, a Flash Flood Watch is
now in effect for the counties generally along and southeast of
I-65, including Stone and George counties in MS through late
Thursday afternoon.

Model probabilities indicate high likelihood of fog development
tonight through tomorrow as well. Therefore, another concern will
be patchy/dense fog, particularly near the coast, through at least
tomorrow morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for our
coastal marine areas in effect from 9PM this evening through noon
tomorrow, but this may need to be expanded to the land areas along
the coast. Fog is expected to persist through Thursday afternoon
along the coast according to model probabilities, which may lead
to an extension of the marine Dense Fog Advisory; however, this
will continue to be monitored. As the front progresses over our
area Thursday and exits to the east, the probability of fog will
dwindle.

Temperatures will run well above normal tonight and tomorrow,
with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s and highs tomorrow in
the mid 70s. With cold FROPA late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, temperatures will begin to decrease. Lows during this
time are expected to be in the lower to upper 50s northwest of
I-65 and in the lower to mid 60s southeast of I-65. Highs Thursday
are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s northwest of
I-65 and in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees southeast. A much
colder airmass is then expected behind the front, with lows
Thursday night in the mid to upper 30s inland and around 40
degrees along the coast. /26

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Radar shows a band of shra streaming northeastward
over the I-65 corridor. Vsby not being impacted in these areas as
of yet as precipitation is light. MVFR cigs to begin the forecast
are forecast to lower to IFR/perhaps LIFR categories through the
course of the night with indications that fog will increase in
coverage as well. Fog could become locally dense over the Gulf
coast portions with vsby lowering to a quarter mile or less.
Component of southerly flow increases during the day Wednesday
with winds gusting to between 20 and 25 kts at times. An increase
in convective coverage expected Wednesday as well. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for ALZ054>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 4, 4:00 PM CST, 5 hours 52 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
400 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-052200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
400 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Areas of dense fog will be possible tonight, especially along the
coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Heavy rainfall is likely Wednesday and Thursday, with several rounds
of training showers and thunderstorms expected to bring rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches area-wide, with local amounts of 6 inches
or more possible. Severe storms with damaging winds are also expected,
along with the potential for tornadoes, mainly from late Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather activation may be required Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-052200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
400 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Areas of dense fog are expected tonight in the nearshore waters,
bays and sounds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.
   Small Craft Advisory.

Patchy, dense fog is possible over the nearshore waters,
bays and sounds Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Hazardous wind and wave conditions for small craft will be possible
over coastal waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida Wednesday
through early Friday. Strong storms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 4, 9:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBChoctaw, Clarke, Washington41 days
Feb 4, 9:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBChoctaw, Clarke, Washington42 days
Feb 5, 4:35 AM CSTGale WatchMOB11 hr
Feb 5, 5:19 AM CSTHigh Surf AdvisoryMOBBaldwin, Mobile49 hr
Feb 5, 9:53 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB82 min
Feb 5, 10:29 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB61 min
Feb 5, 10:57 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB93 min
Feb 5, 11:15 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB38 min
Feb 5, 11:59 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB64 min
Feb 5, 12:21 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBWashington39 min
Feb 5, 12:47 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBBaldwin3 hr
Feb 5, 12:51 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBMobile39 min
Feb 5, 1:22 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBEscambia3 hr
Feb 5, 1:29 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMOBBaldwin3 hr
Feb 5, 3:06 PM CSTGale WarningMOB42 hr
Feb 5, 3:19 PM CSTWind AdvisoryMOBBaldwin, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia and 2 more19 hr
Feb 5, 3:23 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBMobile52 min
Feb 5, 4:37 PM CSTMarine Dense Fog AdvisoryMOB14 hr
Feb 5, 5:14 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBEscambia60 hr
Feb 5, 5:14 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBDallas, Monroe, Wilcox25 days
Feb 5, 5:14 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBClarke, Monroe, Wilcox40 days
Feb 5, 5:14 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBCovington, Escambia5 days
Feb 5, 5:55 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBChoctaw35 min
Feb 4, 9:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa4 days
Feb 4, 9:52 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa21 days
Feb 5, 1:27 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBOkaloosa48 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Alabama, 2020River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.