River Flood Warning 32, NWS Mobile, AL

401 
WGUS84 KMOB 040056
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
656 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-050056-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0032.200306T1617Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200306T1617Z.200308T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
656 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From late Friday morning until further notice.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Friday morning and continue to rise
  near 18.4 feet by early Sunday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 19.0 feet...Low lying pastures will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

229 
WGUS84 KMOB 041348
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
748 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-051347-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0032.200307T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200307T0900Z.200309T1100Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
748 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 7AM Wednesday the stage was 11.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise 
  to near 18.7 feet by Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 19 feet...Low lying pastures will flood. Cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

416 
WGUS84 KMOB 050125
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
725 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-060124-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0032.200309T1700Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200309T1700Z.200309T2300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
725 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From Monday early afternoon until further notice.
* At 7PM Wednesday the stage was 11.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Monday early afternoon and continue to 
  rise near 17.1 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 17 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

736 
WGUS84 KMOB 051309
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
709 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020
 
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County.
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-051339-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-200305T1309Z/
/CTYF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
709 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Escambia River Near Century.
* At 6AM Thursday the stage was 12.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river will rise to just under flood stage, 16 feet, by Sunday 
  afternoon then begin falling. 
* At 17 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

FLC091-051339-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200307T1200Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
709 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Shoal River Near Crestview.
* At 6AM Thursday the stage was 5.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* The river will rise to just under flood stage, 7 feet, by late  
  Friday night then begin falling. 
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Expect mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through
about 04.06z followed by mostly MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities
through 04.12z. Winds will be mostly south at 5 to 10 knots with
possible gusts to up to 20 knots in heavy showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through 04.12z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper low currently
located near the northern Baja area advances slowly eastward into
western Texas through tonight while an upper trof over the
northern and central Plains advances into the interior eastern
states. A frontal boundary which currently extends from near the
ArkLaTex to the Ohio River valley advances slowly southward into
central Mississippi and northern Alabama this morning. The
frontal boundary continues southward into the forecast area
this afternoon then gradually advances to near the coast by late
tonight. A series of shortwaves and a persistent warm, moist low
level southerly flow are expected to lead to two periods of
enhanced deep layer lift over the forecast area. The first of
these occurs this morning and mainly affects the interior portion
of the area. The second period develops after the late this
evening and continues Wed and will be enhanced by the frontal
boundary moving slowly through the area. Abundant deep layer
moisture remains in place over the area through the period with
precipitable water values near 1.5 inches. Will have mainly likely
pops well inland overnight tapering to slight chance pops near
the coast, then pops increase to likely to categorical over
interior areas this morning while lesser pops continue closer to
the coast. While a relative lull in the series of shortwaves
occurs this afternoon, some modest forcing will be present which
when combined with the frontal boundary slowly advancing into the
area will support likely to categorical pops over much of the
area. Pops then increase to categorical over essentially the
entire area later tonight as deep layer lift increases in response
to a stronger series of shortwaves set to move across the area.

MLCAPE values remain low through the remainder of tonight (200
J/kg or less) then increase to potentially around 500 J/kg by mid
afternoon. 0-1 km Helicity values increase to 200-300 m2/s2
overnight, but an examination of model soundings shows that the
meager instability is located mainly well aloft (above ~ 700 mb)
and it's also likely that the convection will not be surface
based. Based on this, the potential for strong or severe storm
development overnight continues to look low. Shear values trend
much lower during the day on today (0-1 km Helicity generally
less than 50 m2/s2) so the potential for strong to severe storm
development remains low. This is supported by Convective Allowing
Models (CAMs) although it should be noted that the CAMs show
potentially stronger convective activity further north, which is
due to more favorable mid level lapse rates. Indicated shear
values increase significantly tonight, but model soundings show
that convection will rather likely be elevated (and rooted near
900-800 mb), and becomes increasingly elevated as the frontal
boundary advances to near the coast late in the night. That said,
will need to continue to monitor this pattern. A moist southerly
flow continues during the period, which is favoring in fog
developing over the cool bays and near shore waters with
visibilities potentially dropping below 1 nm. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through this evening and may need to be
extended into Wed. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect
as a persistent onshore flow leads to a gradual increase in
onshore swell. /29

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...The
models have come into fairly decent agreement in regards to the
upper level pattern for the short term. Zonal flow aloft will give
way to an upper level low that will advance over the southeastern
CONUS through late week. At the surface, a low pressure system will
be centered over south Louisiana, with a stalled boundary over the
northern Gulf coast. This stalled front, associated with the low
pressure to the west, will advance back north as a warm front
through late Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, the low will
progress eastward over the northern Gulf coast and be centered over
the southern Alabama coast and the northwestern Florida panhandle.
By this time, the warm front will be located over south-central
Alabama, with a cold front moving over the Gulf waters. The low will
then quickly progress northeast over the Carolinas and towards the
Atlantic through Thursday.

The ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the QPF compared with the
GFS, but wet and unsettled weather will be the theme through early
Thursday. PWATs will range from 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the area
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, then begin to decrease
into Thursday morning. Anywhere between three quarters of an inch to
1.5 inches of rain are expected over the area Wednesday evening
through Thursday afternoon. That's after about 1.5 to 2 inches of
rain that is expected to fall Tuesday through Wednesday, with
locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding will be a primary
concern, with additional flooding concerns for our rivers
(particularly for those still in flood). In terms of thunderstorms,
MLCAPE ranges from 300 J/kg far inland to around 700 J/kg along the
coast overnight Wednesday into Thursday. As the low progresses
eastward through Thursday morning, CAPE will decrease. Also, SBCAPE
shown by the models will be generally be between 200 and 600 J/kg
along the coast and over the open Gulf waters overnight Wednesday.
Therefore, the greatest risk seems to be near the coast and over the
Gulf, but embedded thunderstorms will be possible over the inland
areas as well (mainly south of the warm front).

Another concern will be patchy to dense fog formation, particularly
near the coast and over the near shore Gulf waters through early
Thursday morning as seen from model probabilities. However, fog will
diminish by mid-morning Thursday with the eastward progression of
the surface low. A HIGH RISK of rip currents is also in effect
through Thursday afternoon.

Lows overnight Wednesday into early Thursday will generally be in
the lower to mid 50s over the inland areas and in the upper 50s to
lower 60s near the coast. Highs Thursday will then be in the mid 60s
to around 70 degrees along and north of I-65, with lower to mid 70s
expected south of I-65. Lows Thursday night will then be chillier,
in the mid to upper 40s inland to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees
along the coast. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...An upper ridge pushes east
over the region this weekend in the wake of the Wednesday/Thursday
system. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure builds from the
eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic. This pattern supports dry
conditions through the weekend, with winds gradually veering from
northerly on Friday to easterly Saturday and southerly by Sunday.
The southerly flow begins the slow process of transporting Gulf
moisture back into the region and cloud cover increases Sunday as
a result. Aloft, the flow pattern becomes more zonal and a jet
streak advances eastward across the south plains, leading to
increasing upper-level divergence overspreading the region. With
large scale forcing and deep-layer moisture both on the rise, rain
chances return to the area Monday.

High temps Friday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s and
lows Friday/Saturday nights will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. A
warming trend begins Sunday with the return of onshore flow.
Temperatures climb into the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday/Monday
afternoons and remain in the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday night.
/49

MARINE...Widespread fog, locally dense at times, is expected
tonight and may continue through Wednesday night. Southerly winds
and seas will slowly build through tonight becoming mostly east on
Wednesday ahead of a developing surface low approaching from the
west. A weak frontal boundary well north of the coast early today
will shift south towards the coast through early Wednesday as the
area of low pressure nears from the west. Widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms will develop late today and continue through
early Thursday with a few strong thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.
A moderate to strong northerly flow is expected late Thursday
through early Saturday as the front moves well offshore. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041230-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm development this
morning through early to mid afternoon generally over northern
sections of the forecast area or north of a line stretching from
Leakesville MS to Andalusia AL. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts, large hail and maybe an isolated tornado.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm development
generally south of a line stretching from Leakesville MS to
Andalusia AL late tonight. The main threat will be damaging wind
gusts, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Some flooding will also
be possible.

A high Risk for rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of
Al and northwest FL through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm development
generally south of a line stretching from Leakesville MS to
Andalusia AL Wednesday and Wednesday night. The main threat will
be damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Some
flooding will also be possible.

A high Risk for rip currents will continue along the Gulf beaches
of Al and northwest FL through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Monday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-041230-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread dense fog will be likely over the near shore waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida today and tonight. A dense fog
Advisory is in effect today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread dense fog will be likely over the near shore waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida on Wednesday. A dense fog
Advisory is in effect through Wednesday afternoon.

Hazardous wind and wave conditions for small craft will be
possible in the wake of a cold front Thursday through Saturday
morning.