Alert archive / Alabama / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 31, NWS Mobile, AL

March 3, 2020Dallas County, Monroe County, Wilcox County, Alabama

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Mar 3, 2020, 10:09 AM CST for Dallas County, Monroe County, Wilcox County, Alabama. It took effect at Mar 5, 2020, 12:00 AM CST. It was in force for 19 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 3, 2020, 10:09 AM CST (16:09 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 5, 2020, 12:00 AM CST
Expired
Mar 24, 2020, 11:09 AM CDT
In force
19 days
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Dallas County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Wilcox County, AL

The radar

The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Alabama River near Miller's Ferry (MRFA1). The gauge peaked at 77.48 ft at Mar 9, 2020, 3:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderate5060708003/0303/0403/0503/0603/0703/0803/0903/1003/1103/1203/1303/1403/1503/1603/1703/1803/1903/2003/2103/2203/2303/2403/25
Action stage
61 ft
Minor stage
66 ft
Moderate stage
80 ft
Major stage
83 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02427506, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

068 
WGUS44 KMOB 031609
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1009 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020



...The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a flood warning for the 
following river in Alabama... 

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties.

.Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over the next 24 hours. As a result...river
levels are forecast to rise and a flood warning is now in effect. It is 
emphasized that the following forecast is based on the expected rainfall during 
the next 24 hours. If less rainfall occurs...it may be necessary to revise this 
stage forecast downward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-041608-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0031.200306T1040Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200306T1040Z.200308T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1009 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From late Thursday night until further notice
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was...55 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 66 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to rise near
  68.3 feet by early Sunday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 66 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
21 follow-up statements
273 
WGUS84 KMOB 040112
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
712 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-050112-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.200305T2242Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T2242Z.200308T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
712 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From Thursday afternoon until further notice.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was 55.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 70.6 feet by early Sunday morning.
* At 66.0 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
236 
WGUS84 KMOB 041636
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1036 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-051635-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.200305T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0900Z.200309T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From early tomorrow until further notice.
* At 9AM Wednesday the stage was 58.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  73.8 feet by early Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 66 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should be
  moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-051635-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.3.ER.200209T1517Z.200214T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 5AM Wednesday the stage was 40.3 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 48.6 feet by Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 49 feet...Recreational areas around the Lock and Dam begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$
748 
WGUS84 KMOB 050102
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
702 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-060101-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.200305T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0600Z.200309T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
702 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* From after midnight tomorrow until further notice.
* At 6PM Wednesday the stage was 63.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage after midnight and continue to 
  rise near 77.7 feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 80 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps and a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-060101-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.3.ER.200209T1517Z.200214T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
702 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* From tonight until further notice.
* At 5PM Wednesday the stage was 41.1 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise near 50.3 
  feet by Monday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 50 feet...Roads in the Mabien Lake area begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$
945 
WGUS84 KMOB 051606
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1006 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-061607-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 68.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.7 feet by Monday early afternoon.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
114 
WGUS84 KMOB 060143
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
743 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-070142-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
743 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 6 PM Thursday the stage was 70.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.7 feet by Monday early afternoon.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 80 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
056 
WGUS84 KMOB 061620
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1020 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-071620-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Friday the stage was 72.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.7 feet by Monday early afternoon.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
403 
WGUS84 KMOB 070140
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
740 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-080139-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200311T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
740 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 6 PM Friday the stage was 74.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.9 feet by early Wednesday morning.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
056 
WGUS84 KMOB 071619
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1019 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-081618-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 75.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 78.0 feet by early Monday afternoon 
  then begin a slow fall the middle to latter half of the week. 
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
096 
WGUS84 KMOB 080138
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
738 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-090138-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
738 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 6 PM Saturday the stage was 76.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 78.0 feet by Monday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps occurs as well as a few secondary roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
037 
WGUS84 KMOB 081325
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
825 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-091324-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 7 AM Sunday the stage was 76.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 78.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
103 
WGUS84 KMOB 090126
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
826 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-100125-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200310T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 7 PM Sunday the stage was 77.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.8 feet by tomorrow evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
077 
WGUS84 KMOB 091327
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
827 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-101327-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200310T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
827 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 7 AM Monday the stage was 77.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.7 feet by after midnight tomorrow 
  then begin falling.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
965 
WGUS84 KMOB 100056
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
756 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-110056-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0035.200312T1200Z-200313T0600Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.200312T1200Z.200312T1200Z.200313T0000Z.NO/
756 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From Thursday morning until late Thursday night.
* At 07PM Monday the stage was 21.0 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday morning, then will fall below 
  flood stage by Thursday night.
* At 22.0 feet...Flood Stage. Water approaches homes in west Merrill.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$
136 
WGUS84 KMOB 101319
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
819 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-111318-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1332Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0732Z.NO/
819 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7 AM Tuesday the stage was 77.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Saturday 
  morning.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
279 
WGUS84 KMOB 110138
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
838 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-120138-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1440Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0840Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was 77.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
274 
WGUS84 KMOB 111523
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1023 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-121523-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1906Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T1306Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 76.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 80.0 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
554 
WGUS84 KMOB 120201
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
901 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-130159-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1800Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T1200Z.NO/
901 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 75.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 80 feet...Flooding of some fishing camps as well as a few secondary roads
  will occur at these stages.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
895 
WGUS84 KMOB 121447
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties.
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
Mississippi...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox Counties.
  
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Bayou Sara At Saraland affecting Mobile County. 
  Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant affecting Baldwin and Mobile Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-131446-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T0621Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0021Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until late Friday night.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 73.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow evening.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-131446-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200317T1200Z/
/CLBA1.3.ER.200209T1517Z.200214T1600Z.200317T0600Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 52.8 feet. 
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
* At 50.0 feet...Roads in the Mabien Lake area begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC097-131446-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.200314T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.200314T0000Z.200316T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Bayou Sara At Saraland
* From tomorrow evening until further notice.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* At 5.0 feet...Street flooding east of the railroad becomes widespread.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8808 3083 8804 3082 8805 3082 8808


$$

ALC003-097-131446-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCKA1.1.ER.200310T0945Z.200314T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant
* until further notice.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.7 feet by tomorrow evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 12.0 feet...Considerable overflow of lowlands in the area. A few county 
  roads become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8797 3114 8792 3099 8792 3068 8796
 3067 8806 3102 8803                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-131446-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.3.ER.200207T1935Z.200222T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until further notice.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 38.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 37.2 feet by .
* At 40.0 feet...Widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. Portions of 
  State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by water. Cabins on Old 
  Ferry Road flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-131446-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.2.ER.200208T0932Z.200223T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 28.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 28.7 feet by .
* At 30.0 feet...Roads along the east side of the river near Jackson begin to 
  flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC053-FLC033-131000-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200313T1000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.200311T0645Z.200312T1800Z.200313T0400Z.UU/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until late tonight.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage  tonight.
* At 17.0 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-131446-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200306T0133Z.200313T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 25.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.0 feet by this evening then begin 
  falling.
* At 26.0 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

MSC039-041-059-121517-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200313T1200Z/
/MRRM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Friday morning.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 21.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* At 22.0 feet...Flood Stage. Water approaches homes in west Merrill.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$
875 
WGUS84 KMOB 130055
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
755 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-140054-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T0920Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0320Z.NO/
755 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until late Friday night.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 71.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* At 66 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$
750 
WGUS84 KMOB 131520
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox Counties.
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Bayou Sara At Saraland affecting Mobile County. 
  Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant affecting Baldwin and Mobile Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-141200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1200Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0600Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday morning.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 69.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* At 66.0 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-141519-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200317T1338Z/
/CLBA1.3.ER.200209T1517Z.200214T1600Z.200317T0738Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 9AM Friday the stage was 51.8 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
* At 50.0 feet...Roads in the Mabien Lake area begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC097-141519-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200316T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Bayou Sara At Saraland
* until further notice.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* At 5.0 feet...Street flooding east of the railroad becomes widespread.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8808 3083 8804 3082 8805 3082 8808


$$

ALC003-097-141519-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCKA1.1.ER.200310T0945Z.200314T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mobile River At Barry Steam Plant
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Friday the stage was 13.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.8 feet by this evening then begin 
  falling.
* At 12.0 feet...Considerable overflow of lowlands in the area. A few county 
  roads become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8797 3114 8792 3099 8792 3068 8796
 3067 8806 3102 8803                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-141519-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.3.ER.200207T1935Z.200222T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Friday the stage was 37.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 35.9 feet by .
* At 40.0 feet...Widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. Portions of 
  State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by water. Cabins on Old 
  Ferry Road flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-141519-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.2.ER.200208T0932Z.200223T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 28.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 28.6 feet by this afternoon then begin 
  falling.
* At 30.0 feet...Roads along the east side of the river near Jackson begin to 
  flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC053-FLC033-140600-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0040.200313T1519Z-200314T0600Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200313T1220Z.200314T0000Z.UU/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

* until late tonight.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 17.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this evening.
* At 17.0 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-141519-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200306T0133Z.200312T1630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Friday the stage was 25.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 24.3 feet by .
* At 26.0 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
969 
WGUS84 KMOB 140115
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
815 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-141440-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200314T1440Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.200305T0612Z.200309T2000Z.200314T0840Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 66.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue to fall and will fall below flood stage by early 
  tomorrow morning.
* At 66 feet...Farm and pasturelands in the area will flood and cattle should 
  be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 3, 6:38 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 6:38 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Expect mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through
about 04.06z followed by mostly MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities
through 04.12z. Winds will be mostly south at 5 to 10 knots with
possible gusts to up to 20 knots in heavy showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through 04.12z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper low currently
located near the northern Baja area advances slowly eastward into
western Texas through tonight while an upper trof over the
northern and central Plains advances into the interior eastern
states. A frontal boundary which currently extends from near the
ArkLaTex to the Ohio River valley advances slowly southward into
central Mississippi and northern Alabama this morning. The
frontal boundary continues southward into the forecast area
this afternoon then gradually advances to near the coast by late
tonight. A series of shortwaves and a persistent warm, moist low
level southerly flow are expected to lead to two periods of
enhanced deep layer lift over the forecast area. The first of
these occurs this morning and mainly affects the interior portion
of the area. The second period develops after the late this
evening and continues Wed and will be enhanced by the frontal
boundary moving slowly through the area. Abundant deep layer
moisture remains in place over the area through the period with
precipitable water values near 1.5 inches. Will have mainly likely
pops well inland overnight tapering to slight chance pops near
the coast, then pops increase to likely to categorical over
interior areas this morning while lesser pops continue closer to
the coast. While a relative lull in the series of shortwaves
occurs this afternoon, some modest forcing will be present which
when combined with the frontal boundary slowly advancing into the
area will support likely to categorical pops over much of the
area. Pops then increase to categorical over essentially the
entire area later tonight as deep layer lift increases in response
to a stronger series of shortwaves set to move across the area.

MLCAPE values remain low through the remainder of tonight (200
J/kg or less) then increase to potentially around 500 J/kg by mid
afternoon. 0-1 km Helicity values increase to 200-300 m2/s2
overnight, but an examination of model soundings shows that the
meager instability is located mainly well aloft (above ~ 700 mb)
and it's also likely that the convection will not be surface
based. Based on this, the potential for strong or severe storm
development overnight continues to look low. Shear values trend
much lower during the day on today (0-1 km Helicity generally
less than 50 m2/s2) so the potential for strong to severe storm
development remains low. This is supported by Convective Allowing
Models (CAMs) although it should be noted that the CAMs show
potentially stronger convective activity further north, which is
due to more favorable mid level lapse rates. Indicated shear
values increase significantly tonight, but model soundings show
that convection will rather likely be elevated (and rooted near
900-800 mb), and becomes increasingly elevated as the frontal
boundary advances to near the coast late in the night. That said,
will need to continue to monitor this pattern. A moist southerly
flow continues during the period, which is favoring in fog
developing over the cool bays and near shore waters with
visibilities potentially dropping below 1 nm. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through this evening and may need to be
extended into Wed. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect
as a persistent onshore flow leads to a gradual increase in
onshore swell. /29

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...The
models have come into fairly decent agreement in regards to the
upper level pattern for the short term. Zonal flow aloft will give
way to an upper level low that will advance over the southeastern
CONUS through late week. At the surface, a low pressure system will
be centered over south Louisiana, with a stalled boundary over the
northern Gulf coast. This stalled front, associated with the low
pressure to the west, will advance back north as a warm front
through late Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, the low will
progress eastward over the northern Gulf coast and be centered over
the southern Alabama coast and the northwestern Florida panhandle.
By this time, the warm front will be located over south-central
Alabama, with a cold front moving over the Gulf waters. The low will
then quickly progress northeast over the Carolinas and towards the
Atlantic through Thursday.

The ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the QPF compared with the
GFS, but wet and unsettled weather will be the theme through early
Thursday. PWATs will range from 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the area
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, then begin to decrease
into Thursday morning. Anywhere between three quarters of an inch to
1.5 inches of rain are expected over the area Wednesday evening
through Thursday afternoon. That's after about 1.5 to 2 inches of
rain that is expected to fall Tuesday through Wednesday, with
locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding will be a primary
concern, with additional flooding concerns for our rivers
(particularly for those still in flood). In terms of thunderstorms,
MLCAPE ranges from 300 J/kg far inland to around 700 J/kg along the
coast overnight Wednesday into Thursday. As the low progresses
eastward through Thursday morning, CAPE will decrease. Also, SBCAPE
shown by the models will be generally be between 200 and 600 J/kg
along the coast and over the open Gulf waters overnight Wednesday.
Therefore, the greatest risk seems to be near the coast and over the
Gulf, but embedded thunderstorms will be possible over the inland
areas as well (mainly south of the warm front).

Another concern will be patchy to dense fog formation, particularly
near the coast and over the near shore Gulf waters through early
Thursday morning as seen from model probabilities. However, fog will
diminish by mid-morning Thursday with the eastward progression of
the surface low. A HIGH RISK of rip currents is also in effect
through Thursday afternoon.

Lows overnight Wednesday into early Thursday will generally be in
the lower to mid 50s over the inland areas and in the upper 50s to
lower 60s near the coast. Highs Thursday will then be in the mid 60s
to around 70 degrees along and north of I-65, with lower to mid 70s
expected south of I-65. Lows Thursday night will then be chillier,
in the mid to upper 40s inland to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees
along the coast. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...An upper ridge pushes east
over the region this weekend in the wake of the Wednesday/Thursday
system. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure builds from the
eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic. This pattern supports dry
conditions through the weekend, with winds gradually veering from
northerly on Friday to easterly Saturday and southerly by Sunday.
The southerly flow begins the slow process of transporting Gulf
moisture back into the region and cloud cover increases Sunday as
a result. Aloft, the flow pattern becomes more zonal and a jet
streak advances eastward across the south plains, leading to
increasing upper-level divergence overspreading the region. With
large scale forcing and deep-layer moisture both on the rise, rain
chances return to the area Monday.

High temps Friday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s and
lows Friday/Saturday nights will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. A
warming trend begins Sunday with the return of onshore flow.
Temperatures climb into the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday/Monday
afternoons and remain in the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday night.
/49

MARINE...Widespread fog, locally dense at times, is expected
tonight and may continue through Wednesday night. Southerly winds
and seas will slowly build through tonight becoming mostly east on
Wednesday ahead of a developing surface low approaching from the
west. A weak frontal boundary well north of the coast early today
will shift south towards the coast through early Wednesday as the
area of low pressure nears from the west. Widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms will develop late today and continue through
early Thursday with a few strong thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.
A moderate to strong northerly flow is expected late Thursday
through early Saturday as the front moves well offshore. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 6:23 AM CST, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041230-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm development this
morning through early to mid afternoon generally over northern
sections of the forecast area or north of a line stretching from
Leakesville MS to Andalusia AL. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts, large hail and maybe an isolated tornado.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm development
generally south of a line stretching from Leakesville MS to
Andalusia AL late tonight. The main threat will be damaging wind
gusts, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Some flooding will also
be possible.

A high Risk for rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of
Al and northwest FL through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm development
generally south of a line stretching from Leakesville MS to
Andalusia AL Wednesday and Wednesday night. The main threat will
be damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Some
flooding will also be possible.

A high Risk for rip currents will continue along the Gulf beaches
of Al and northwest FL through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Monday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-041230-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
623 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread dense fog will be likely over the near shore waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida today and tonight. A dense fog
Advisory is in effect today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread dense fog will be likely over the near shore waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida on Wednesday. A dense fog
Advisory is in effect through Wednesday afternoon.

Hazardous wind and wave conditions for small craft will be
possible in the wake of a cold front Thursday through Saturday
morning.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 3, 10:10 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBEscambia21 days
Mar 3, 12:31 PM CSTFlash Flood WatchMOBBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington and 6 more45 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Alabama, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.