Hurricane Watch 1019, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...A broad upper-level anticyclone
currently positioned over the northeastern Gulf moves little
through the near term. Meanwhile, a weak inverted surface trough
extending from the central Gulf northward into southeast Louisiana
shifts west, bringing much of the shower and thunderstorm activity
that lingered offshore last night with it. Redevelopment of
showers and storms over land areas is expected this afternoon and
evening, similar to yesterday although perhaps slightly lower
coverage based on the departing dynamics associated with the
aforementioned surface trough. Activity will dissipate after dark
with the loss of daytime heating, except some showers that could
linger right along the coast and over portions of the Florida
panhandle. High temps today reach the upper 80s to low 90s, which
combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s will produce heat indices
in the 99 to 103 degree range. Low temps tonight remain muggy and
mild in the low to mid 70s.

The feature of greater focus and importance at this time is
Tropical Depression 19 (hereafter TD 19), which is currently
located near the Florida Keys and drifting west-northwest into the
eastern Gulf. Current satellite imagery is rather impressive and,
given the more favorable environment for development over warm
Gulf waters, it would not be surprising to have Tropical Storm
Sally form over the eastern Gulf sometime later today or tonight.
This system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it
tracks west-northwest across open Gulf waters and towards our
general vicinity of the north-central coast, somewhere between
southeast Louisiana and the western Florida panhandle. Looking
specifically at the weather on Sunday, we're expecting a greater
coverage in showers and thunderstorms across our area as the deep
plume of tropical moisture associated with TD 19 approaches from
the southeast. Kept the highest rain chances along the coast and
east of Interstate 65, the first places to see said moisture
settle in. Obviously, beyond Sunday this system will bring with
it some level of additional impacts, the details of which are
difficult to nail down this far out. Some are more certain than
others, however, such as dangerous surf and rip currents. These
beach hazards ramp up well before the system makes it into our
neighborhood, so there is a HIGH RISK of rip currents starting
tonight and lasting through at least the middle part of this week
for all area beaches.

It is important to stay vigilant and have an action plan in place,
as the track and intensity forecasts for TD 19 (and associated
impacts to the local area) could continue to change as the system
evolves. Please check our page (www.weather.gov/mob) and the
National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) for the latest
information. /49

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Broken to overcast cu field with MVFR/VFR cigs is
ongoing across much of the area early this afternoon. Conditions
will continue to improve somewhat as the day progresses, with more
locations seeing VFR cigs by late afternoon and evening.
Expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during
afternoon and evening hours as well, which could bring locally
lower cigs/vis to area terminals in addition to heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty winds. Activity should taper after dark, with
VFR conditions expected early tonight before more MVFR/IFR clouds
settle back in by early Sunday morning. Winds remain generally
light and out of the east- northeast. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob