Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
722 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Hurricane Sally centered just to the west of PNS
will continue slowly to the northeast this morning. Near hurricane
force wind gusts continue at BFM and MOB, although these gusts
should abate over the next several hours. The LIX and EVX radars
reveal an eroding precipitation field across the western half of
Sally, and these improving conditions are advertised in the BFM
and MOB TAFs. Both of these terminals should be gusting below 35
knots by 18Z. The PNS TAF will continue to rely on NPA, and
hurricane conditions are expected through at least 15Z this
morning. Gusts at PNS should fall below 35 knots after 21Z. /CLR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/

UPDATE...Tornado watch #491 has been issued by the Storm
Prediction Center until 6 PM for south central AL, all of the
northwest FL panhandle extending south out across the FL coastal
waters. Zones and marine forecast products have been updated to
include the new headlines. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/

.NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE SALLY LASHING THE
GULF COAST...

.CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING UNFOLDING...

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...The center of
Hurricane Sally was about 14 miles south southwest of Orange Beach.
The northern eye-wall of Hurricane Sally is pounding coastal Baldwin
county and southern Mobile Bay and portions of the northwest FL
panhandle with intense wind early this morning. There have been
reports of dangerous flash flooding where citizens have been rescued
from high water in coastal Baldwin Co. Many area roads have become
inundated and impassable. This continues to be a very dangerous and
evolving flash flood situation by the hour, especially at night when
flooded roadways are difficult to see. We look to be well on the way
to a historic flooding rain event which could total upwards of
around 30" or even perhaps higher in some areas before all is said
and done. Surge will be greatest along and east of where Sally
crosses the coast this morning and large, dangerous breakers will
likely result in coastal erosion along area beaches. Forecasters are
also concerned about the development of tornadoes in outer-bands
that pivot inland today. In these bands, tornadic signatures can
develop quickly and move rapidly from the southeast to northwest in
Sally's eastern quadrant.

Sally is finally expected to move ashore near Orange Beach around
7 AM this morning. Thereafter, the wind field is forecast to
begin gradually weakening/shrinking as Sally lifts northeast.
Sally tracks northeast to the east of I-65 tonight and moves out
of the forecast area by Thursday AM. Although Sally's wind field
will begin to wind down as it moves inland, dangerous torrential
rainfall will still occur and result in life threatening,
catastrophic flash flooding across many areas. Dangerous river
flooding is also expected as many rivers are expected to go into
moderate to major flooding with some near record crests forecast.
Residents should monitor the latest river forecasts and be
prepared to seek higher ground.

As Sally moves away, coverage of rains will begin to lower over the
southwest zones late Wednesday night but remain likely over the
eastern zones perhaps into Thursday.

It is extremely important to stay vigilant and have an action plan
in place as short term adjustments to track and intensity can still
occur. Therefore, please make sure to continue to check our web-page
(weather.gov/mob) as well as the National Hurricane Center
(www.hurricanes.gov) for the latest updates and information on
Hurricane Sally.

Given the track of Sally, forecasters have lowered some of the
tropical warnings over the western zones. All other warnings
remain unchanged. See below for the latest updated listing on all
watch/warning/advisories that are in effect. Stay safe. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Remnants of
Sally are progged to move northeast over the southeast US Thursday
night into Friday. Remnants of Sally will merge with a frontal
boundary on Friday. The front moves south across the area on Friday
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
front. A broad upper level trof looks to remain aligned from the
southeast US to the western Gulf low intersecting a narrow zone of
deep moisture. The passage of subtle impulses in the mean
southwest flow aloft along with lingering moisture supports
mentioning a small chance of showers and storms along and east of
the I-65 corridor through Saturday. PoPs become suppressed to the
south over the coastal waters Saturday night. The big impacts will
focus on river flooding which continues into the weekend. /10

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The medium range looks
to be fairly benign from a sensible weather standpoint. The global
spectral models show a southward push of drier air in the wake of an
upper trof pushing off the east coast and large surface high
pressure centered over the OH River Valley. Front that comes through
in the short term, stalls over the central Gulf. A small chance of
showers generally over the coastal waters.

Not too bad for daytime highs. Mid to upper 70s Sunday moderate
gradually by the first of next week into the upper 70s/lower 80s.
A slight touch of fall in the air for much of the area with
overnight lows possibly dipping into the mid to upper 50s interior.
Mid to upper 60s coast. /10

MARINE...Dangerous conditions to continue over the marine area
with Hurricane Sally. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
826 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     HURRICANE        2 ESE MEDAL OF HONOR PA 30.65N 88.16W
09/16/2020                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOUSE FROM DOWNED TREE
            ON HOME NEAR COTTAGE HILL RD. IN MOBILE, AL.
            REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
829 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PACE                    30.60N 87.16W
09/16/2020  E10.90 INCH      SANTA ROSA         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10.90IN OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT MEASURED IN
            PACE, FL FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
844 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 AM     HURRICANE        2 SE MAGNOLIA SPRINGS   30.38N 87.75W
09/16/2020                   BALDWIN            AL   PUBLIC

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOME, RV TRAILER, AND YARD:
            REPORTED AT LAURENT RD. MAGNOLIA, AL.
            REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     HURRICANE        DAUPHIN ISLAND          30.26N 88.11W
09/16/2020                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO BOATS, DOCKS, AND CONDOS ON
            DAUPHIN ISLAND, AL. REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
850 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PACE                    30.60N 87.16W
09/16/2020                   SANTA ROSA         FL   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF A CAR SUBMERGED IN WATER UP TO THE
            TOP OF THE TIRES IN DRIVEWAY OF A HOME IN
            PACE, FL.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
854 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     HURRICANE        2 S I10 AND I65         30.59N 88.12W
09/16/2020                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND FLOODING AT A HOME
            ON DOG RIVER IN MOBILE, AL. REPORTED ON
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SRM