Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
702 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Hurricane Sally continues to move closer to the
Alabama coast at a slow pace, with landfall occurring late tonight
or early tomorrow morning. The thundery squalls will remain
affecting the terminals through most of the day tomorrow, with
conditions improving first at MOB. The squalls will bring very
heavy downpours and hurricane-force wind gusts, especially at BFM
and MOB tonight through tomorrow morning. Crosswind gusts will
fall below 35 knots tomorrow afternoon. Due to the slow and, at
times, erratic motion of Sally, expect frequent amendments. Heavy
rainfall will result in residual ponding or flooding along the
tarmac, even after the winds subside. /SDR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...Hurricane Sally is
currently located roughly 85 miles south of Mobile moving
north at 2 mph. Rain bands will continue to rotate inland as
Sally is forecast is make landfall near the eastern end of Dauphin
Island early Wednesday morning and track and slowly track
northeast from there. Considering this, hurricane force winds
remain likely late tonight into Wednesday for Mobile and Baldwin
counties. Sally's wind field is forecast to weaken/shrink rapidly
soon after landfall. Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm
Warnings have been expanded inland. As Sally nears today, storm
relative helicity values will ramp up across the area, setting the
stage for isolated tornadoes, especially near the coast. A slight
risk for severe storms is also in effect for coastal areas for
the possibility of tornadoes. The biggest story will likely be the
heavy rainfall as the system is expected to only be in western
Escambia County, Alabama by Wednesday evening. This will result
dangerous torrential rainfall across much of the region, which
will result in life threatening flash flooding across much of the
area. Dangerous river flooding is also expected as many rivers are
expected to go into moderate to major flooding with some near
record crests forecast. Residents should monitor the latest river
forecasts and be prepared to seek higher ground.

It is extremely important to stay vigilant and have an action plan
in place as short term adjustments to track and intensity can still
occur. Therefore, please make sure to continue to check our web-page
(weather.gov/mob) as well as the National Hurricane Center
(www.hurricanes.gov) for the latest updates and information on
Hurricane Sally. /13

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Sally will
continue to slowly move northeast and out of our area early
Thursday morning. Although Sally will be weakening, the risk of
additional heavy rain will continue through Thursday. The river
flood threat will continue as runoff continues. Sally will merge
with a frontal boundary on Friday as it pulls away to the
northeast. The front moves south across the area on Friday with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
front. Some drier and cooler air can be expected in the wake of
the front for the weekend. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Global spectral models
show mid-level trough from the Appalachians to the TX coast Saturday
slipping southward by the early half of next week. Rain chances
lower to 10% or less over the interior but will keep a small PoP
going over the coast. After Sally, will look forward to a more
settled/quieter pattern. The significant rainfall and runoff from
Sally in the near and short term periods will keep local river
stages high with moderate to major river flooding continuing over
many rivers in the local Hydrologic Service Area. A high risk of
rip currents will likely linger into the weekend. /10

MARINE...Dangerous conditions to continue over the marine area
with Hurricane Sally. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLOOD            PENSACOLA NAS           30.35N 87.32W
09/15/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            16.27IN OF RAIN MEASURED AT NAS PENSACOLA.
            REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E PENSACOLA BEACH     30.34N 87.12W
09/15/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING: VIA DE LUNA DR
            PENSACOLA BEACH, FL.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1051 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW GULF BREEZE       30.33N 87.19W
09/15/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   PUBLIC

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING: FORT PICKENS
            BEACH RD PENSACOLA BEACH, FL.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1054 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW JOHNSONS BEACH    30.31N 87.43W
09/15/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING: GONGORA DR.
            ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1057 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N GULF BREEZE         30.39N 87.18W
09/15/2020                   GMZ634             FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING: THREE MILE
            BRIDGE IN PENSACOLA, FL.

&&

SRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1059 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE PENSACOLA INTERNA 30.49N 87.18W
09/15/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING: CAPE TRAFALGAR
            CT. PENSACOLA, FL.

&&

SRM