Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Storm Chances Remain High for the Start of the Work Week...

Rest of afternoon-Tonight...Another active afternoon
across east central FL. Showers and thunderstorms developed and
moved from the southwest, producing moderate to localized heavy
rain and gusty winds of near 40 mph. This activity will continue
through the afternoon, weakening/dissipating from the east and
continuing over the coastal counties and Atlantic waters in the
late afternoon. By early evening, coverage will be minimal but a
shower/thunderstorm or two can remain possible. After midnight,
most of the activity should have dissipated, leaving partly to
mostly cloudy skies and clearing through the overnight hours. Lows
will drop to the lower-mid 70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion (modified)...

Monday-Wednesday...Mid-level trough will develop an area of low
pressure across the southeast U.S. along a nearly stationary frontal
trough through mid-week. While the subtropical ridge will try to
lift back northward during this time, the ridge axis will remain
near to south of Lake Okeechobee with a low level offshore flow
generally prevailing across east central Florida. This flow pattern
combined with PW values around 2" will continue to keep rain chances
above normal early this week, with PoPs around 60-80 percent on
Monday and 60-70 percent on Tuesday. Rain chances may then decrease
toward mid-week as slightly drier air moves in from the west, and
will maintain PoPs around 50 percent for Wednesday.

However, pattern will remain generally the same with scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing and pushing eastward across
east central Florida each afternoon and offshore by late afternoon
through early evening. A few stronger storms will be possible each
day, especially toward the coast with any interactions that occur
with the east coast sea breeze and lingering outflow boundaries.
Main threats will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Highs will reach the
low 90s for most locations with overnight lows in the 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...Latest model guidance has a low pressure across
the southeast U.S. strengthening and lifting northward along the
eastern seaboard into late week through early next weekend. This
will keep a trailing front/trough just north of the state with a
potentially stronger offshore flow developing across central
Florida. Deeper moisture builds back across the region, which will
maintain higher coverage of afternoon showers and storms through
this timeframe. PoPs continue to range from 60-70 percent each
day, with highs reaching the low 90s for much of the area with mid
90s possible, especially should low level westerly flow be strong
enough to prevent east coast sea breeze development.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions were included in TEMPO groups due to reduced
visibilities and lowering cigs as SHRA/TSRA will continue to
affect most of the terminals. SHRA/TSRA are expected to dissipate
after sunset. SW winds 5-10 kt through this evening. Tomorrow
variable winds to start off with, then becoming SW at 5-10 kt in
the late morning. Included VCSH starting at 15Z for KLEE, KMCO,
KISM, and KSFB.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of afternoon-tonight...Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to reach the Atlantic coastal waters from the west
through the evening, causing localized strong gusty winds and
higher seas. Otherwise, variable winds tonight at 10-15 kt will
become south to southwest after midnight as a ridge stays to our
south and a low pressure area to the northeast.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Monday-Thursday...No significant changes in the forecast into this
week, with ridge axis remaining south of the coastal waters through
the period. W/SW winds in the morning will become S/SE in the
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds will remain below 15 knots and seas will continue to range
from 1-3 feet. Main threat to boaters will be scattered to numerous
thunderstorms producing gusty winds, mainly from mid afternoon
through early evening each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  74  91 /  40  80  30  60
MCO  74  92  75  93 /  30  80  20  60
MLB  75  90  75  91 /  40  80  30  60
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  40  80  30  60
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  30  80  20  60
SFB  74  92  75  93 /  30  80  20  70
ORL  75  92  76  93 /  30  80  20  60
FPR  74  91  74  92 /  30  80  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Combs/Watson/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1108 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-060300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1108 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
interior into early to mid afternoon and then move toward the
coastal areas of east central Florida into the late afternoon
hours. Storms will move east-northeast at 20 mph with some storms
expected to become strong as they interact with the east coast
sea breeze over the coastal counties during the late afternoon.
Some of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds to 45 to 55
mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. Some locations may
receive two to three inches that could produce minor flooding of
urban areas and low lying spots. Scattered storms will continue
across east central Florida this evening and then diminish into
the late evening hours.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms developing over the interior by early afternoon will move
toward the Atlantic coast by mid afternoon into early evening. A
few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds in excess of 35
knots. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor as storms
approach the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
An east swell and a larger than normal tidal range will contribute
to a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at east central
Florida beaches. Remember to swim within sight of a lifeguard.

Also, be sure to check with local officials regarding any beach
closures that might be in effect for your county or community.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
through the upcoming week. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds will be the main
threats with any strong storms that develop.

A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected to
continue at the east central Florida Atlantic beaches through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Negron/Volkmer

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