Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong Cold Front Approaching Central Florida...

...Increasing Winds and Building Seas Will Produce Very Dangerous
Conditions Over the Local Atlantic Through Sunday Morning...

Squall line pushing thru the Nature/First Coasts this mrng should be
overtop the I-4 Corridor by midday. Morning RAOBs show a saturated
H100-H70 lyr at KJAX/KTAE assocd with the approaching cold front...
PWat values btwn 1.50"-1.75". Decreasing low lvl moisture southward
with KTBW/KXMR/KMFL soundings showing a noteworthy dry slot...PWat
values btwn 1.25"-1.50"...KMFL arnd 1.25". Brisk S/SW flow prevails
acrs central FL while low clouds  Stout SSW flow continues ahead of
an approaching cold front. Low stratus clouds linger acrs the area
but no vsby reductions in the sfc obs.

Winds at Buoy009 have been sustained arnd 20kts with gusts 25-30kts.
Sfc obs showing sustained winds arnd 15mph, gusting to 20-25mph near
the coast. Lcl wind profilers 25-30KTS just off the deck. Conditions
only expected to worsen with the approaching front and prefrontal
squall line. With this in mind, updated fcst to raise a Lake Wind
Advisory areawide, though conditions may be marginal over the
Treasure Coast/Lake-O region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lingering IFR stratus through late morning. Prefrontal squall line
approaching the I-4 Corridor should push through the northern sites
by midday, southern sites by late aftn. Wind shift to west with the
passage of the squall line...northwest with the fropa...sfc G18-
23KTS through 05/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Dangerous conditions dvlpg areawide this aftn as a prefrontal squall
line pushes acrs the lcl Atlc. Buoy009 measuring sustained winds
arnd 20kts with gusts 25-30kts. Upgraded fcst to include nearshore
leg under the SCA...will hold off on upgrading nearshore gale watch
until the 12Z guidance package comes in.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Sunday morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Negron

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
927 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-050000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
927 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph and higher gusts will reach east
central Florida late this morning as a cold front approaches from
the northwest. After the passage of a line of showers and
thunderstorms, winds will become west this afternoon and early
evening.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southwest winds up to 20 to 25 knots and building seas will
precede a strong cold front today. The front will pass through the
local Atlantic waters this afternoon, followed by winds shifting
to northwest and increasing further to between 25 and 30 knots
tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds will gust to gale force,
especially beyond 20 nautical miles, where these gusts will be
more frequent, as seas build as high as 10 to 13 feet. Conditions
will be very dangerous for boating, and small craft operators are
advised to remain in port until these hazardous conditions start
to abate late Sunday.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Fast moving showers from late morning through this afternoon may
produce a few lightning strikes and brief gusty winds as they move
east at 45 to 55 mph.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts to around 35 knots will also be possible on area lakes,
the Intracoastal Waterway, and local Atlantic waters in any heavy
showers, or possibly an isolated lightning storm, as they move
quickly eastward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Behind today's front, much colder air will push into east central
Florida tonight through Sunday night. Wind chills are expected to
reach the upper 30s northwest of Interstate 4 by sunrise Sunday,
as temperatures reach the lower 40s there. Lows will even be colder
by sunrise Monday, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s across a
large part of east central Florida. The cold air combined with
light winds could lead to patchy frost development.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Negron/Cristaldi

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
234 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND GST     MELBOURNE AIRPORT       28.10N 80.64W
01/04/2020  M41 MPH          BREVARD            FL   ASOS

            THE ASOS AT THE MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED
            A PEAK WIND GUST FOF 36 KNOTS OR 41 MPH FROM THE WEST.

&&

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

FLZ058-042030-
Okeechobee FL-
301 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EST...

At 259 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brighton Seminole Reservation, or 9 miles west of Buckhead Ridge,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Okeechobee, Four Seasons Estates, Taylor Creek and
Okee Tantie Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake Okeechobee, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10
miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do
not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2716 8071 2721 8079 2720 8083 2714 8087
      2717 8088 2717 8091 2719 8091 2720 8094
      2722 8095 2722 8097 2723 8099 2725 8098
      2726 8100 2730 8100 2731 8103 2740 8068
      2712 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 246DEG 40KT 2715 8104

Rodriguez