Lake Wind Advisory 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong Cold Front To Sweep Across Central Florida Today...

...Increasing Winds and Building Seas Will Produce Very Dangerous
Conditions Over the Local Atlantic Through Sunday Morning...

Current...Stout SSW flow continues ahead of an approaching cold
front. Low clouds have developed over the SW-W peninsula starting a
little after 2 AM, but nil visibility reductions showing up in the
METARs there. A developing prefrontal convective band is showing up
on the state radar mosaic, but there isn't a while low of lightning
or very high DBZ echoes accompanying it thus far.

Today-tonight...SW flow will become breezy quickly after sunrise
with anticipated low cloud deck lifting/breaking up. Model guidance
indicates pre-frontal showers (with a very small chance for storms)
wont reach the NW CWA until about 10AM, and then quickly sweep SE
across the area during the day. Few lingering early evening showers
possible for an hour or two over the Lake O/Treasure Coast regions,
followed by wind shift to NW, and much cooler air overspreading the
area overnight. Max temps will reach the U70s this morning from I-4
NW before falling back through the 60s behind the FROPA. Areas to
the south will reach 80-85F before temps fall back through the 70s
in the afternoon.

Strong CAA will produce a steady temperature drop all night as mins
reach the L-M40s across all but the immediate Space/Treasure Coasts
(U40s-50F) by sunrise Sunday. Lowest WCIs in the U30s are expected
to be confined to areas NW of I-4.

Sunday-Monday...Thin, east-west oriented, band of vorticity across
the central FL peninsula early in the period will slide into the
southern peninsula by the end of the day. Flat ridging in the mid-
levels will slide across the GoM behind this feature and across the
southern peninsula during the day on Mon. At the surface, post-
frontal conditions with high pressure over the western GoM expanding
eastward across central FL through early next week. Northerly winds
Sun will weaken during the day and become light on Mon as the pgrad
relaxes. Conditions will remain dry.

A cool start to Sun with wind chill values in the U30s north of I-4
and L-M 40s south right around sunrise. Temperatures initially in
the 40s most everywhere except some L50s along the immediate
Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier islands. Max values will slowly
recover into the L-M60s areawide, except coastal Volusia struggling
to reach 60F. A cooler night in store Sun night with U30s to L40s
forecast. Normally cooler locations may realize M30s while closer
along the immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts may realize M-U 40s.
Winds will be light so wind chills will not be an issue. Some light,
patchy frost may be possible across cooler rural locations, but
overall moisture is fair at best. Will not initiate wording for this
in the zones, but something to potentially come back to for later
shifts.

Tuesday-Friday...A weakening upper trough remains poised to push
through a surface front across ECFL Tue night into early Wed
morning, but moisture remains scant. There should generally be a
20pct chance or less for light showers anywhere on Tue-Tue night.
Mostly dry for Wed-Thu, but models begin to bring deeper moisture
back into the region on Fri as winds veer SERLY. Again, a 20pct
chance or less for any light precip on Fri.

Temps near climo on Tue for highs in the L70s most areas, and then
cooler again for Wed (post-frontal) in the M-U 60s, though perhaps
only L60s north of I-4. Thu highs rebound again into the L-M70s with
deeper onshore flow returning. Fri will be warmer yet in the U70s,
but perhaps just M70s along the immediate Volusia/N. Brevard coasts.
Lows generally 40s Tue overnight and a bit milder each night Wed/Thu
overnight. Fri overnight into Sat morning will be in the 60s
areawide with some L70s possible near the south Brevard/Treasure
coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR stratus has started forming over the western peninsula a little
earlier than it did last night, but won't be as quick to impact the
NW aerodromes as shown in the TAFs issued since 12Z Fri morning.
Still, while onset will be delayed about 60-90 minutes, we should
see IFR OVC005-008 with embedded areas MVFR mist/BR begin to affect
LEE-ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB between 09Z-10Z and continue then lift and break
up around 14Z.

Mesomodel guidance does not look terribly impressive with convection
ahead of the front today, showing a pronounced weakening trend as it
moves into the CWA after 12Z. Will show some 3hr TEMPO groups for
the upcoming package starting at around 15Z or so at LEE, spreading
SE through the remainder of the CWA. However, confidence in neither
TS nor wind gusts is high enough to include in these groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Increasing winds/seas still on track, and there was
virtually no change to the forecast other than to nudge peak seas
for this event up by a foot toward the end (13ft). After coord with
the adjacent WFOs, the nearshore SCEC/offshore SCA continues today,
while a Gale Watch remains in effect for the 0-20nm legs starting
tonight at 00Z through 15Z Sun morning. The Gale Watch for the 20-
60nm legs has been upgraded to a Warning for that same time period.

Sun-Sun Night...Post-frontal conditions as high pressure builds in
from the west. The Gale Force warning continues until 15Z/10AM with
Small Craft Advisories (SCA) taking over afterward. The pressure
gradient relaxes through the day with NW/N winds diminishing into
the afternoon and further at night. Seas will be slower to respond
but do foresee a gradual cutting back (north to south) of the SCA
from afternoon-evening.

Mon-Wed...Generally favorable boating conditions thru the day Tue as
high pressure remains in control, but is abruptly shifted eastward
with the approach of another front Tue overnight. Cautionary
Statements for winds may be necessary Tue night offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet as NW/N winds increase to 15-20 kts and further
southward across the Gulf Stream during the day Wed with veering
toward the NNE/NE, then ERLY Wed night as speeds remain elevated.
Seas will remain favorable and approachable thru Tue evening, then
will build 3-5 ft near shore and 5-6 ft Gulf Stream thru the day
Wed, perhaps up to 7 ft over the Gulf Stream Wed overnight from
Sebastian Inlet southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday-Monday...Latest model guidance coming in drier for these two
days behind the most recent (strong) front from Sat. Expect min RH's
in the 30s across the interior both afternoons. We should see cool
wind chills early Sun morning, then perhaps some light, patchy frost
late Sun night into early Mon morning. Initial winds Sun morning may
approach 10-15 mph, but decrease thru the afternoon as the pressure
gradient relaxes. ERC values remain fairly low for this time of
year. Watch/Warning headlines not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  42  61  37 /  80  10   0   0
MCO  79  45  65  41 /  70  10   0   0
MLB  82  48  65  39 /  70  10   0   0
VRB  83  48  65  42 /  60  20   0   0
LEE  77  43  64  41 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  79  43  63  40 /  80  10   0   0
ORL  79  44  64  45 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  84  49  66  44 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Sedlock

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