Lake Wind Advisory 26, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Threat for Coastal Flooding Continues Through  Afternoon...

...Dangerous Rip Currents and Rough Surf Will Continue For Much of
the Upcoming Week.

Current...Strong high pressure ridge both surface and aloft remains
anchored well to the NE of Florida, producing ENE boundary layer
flow of near 20kt across the area. Surface METARs/mesonet obs show
winds still blowing at 15-20 mph near the coast, with gusts up to 30
mph. KMLB 88D shows that showers have diminished in coverage quite a
bit since midnight, however a few heavy downpours have recently been
moved onshore and across the Treasure Coast. the stout onshore flow
has been keeping temps up, with readings in the L80s along the coast
and U80s elsewhere.

Today-tonight...While the deep layer ridge remains stationary along/
offshore the eastern U.S. seaboard, a mid level inverted trough will
move W-WNW along the S-SW flank of the ridge across south FL and the
Straits. An attendant weak area of low pressure will develop over
the NW Caribbean Sea and drift NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula and
Channel. An surface inverted trough axis will extend NE from this
area, coincident with mid level feature. Another breezy day is on
tap, especially for coastal areas, with sustained winds near 20 mph
and gusty.

Northern extent of a slug of higher PWAT air will cross the southern
third to half of the FL peninsula, which should result in slightly
higher diurnal POPs (50) there, compared to 40 farther north for all
but northern Lake/Volusia (30). TS chances remain isolated at best.
Lingering (mainly isolated) coastal shower threat again tonight.
Max temps similar to Sun, around 85F along the coast, U80s inland.
Conversely, mins in the L-M70s inland, U70s along the coast.

Hazardous surf conditions continue with rough choppy surf, a High
risk of rip currents, and a continued threat for minor coastal
flooding and beach erosion around the times of the next high tide,
which will occur later this morning from 1030 to 1100 AM.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Middle of the week will see a rise in rain
chances as an inverted trough over the western Caribbean drifts
northward along the spine of the FL peninsula through Wednesday.
Forecast PW values will rise well above 2.00" on Tuesday, leading to
rain chances above 50%, with the most favorable locations to be the
Treasure Coast through the period. Strong onshore flow from the
tight pressure gradient will hold steady, with surface winds of 15-
20 mph and higher gusts lasting through Wednesday. This will steer
showers and isolated storms quickly towards towards the interior,
similar to the setup witnessed yesterday. Occasional lightning
strikes will be possible, with an enhanced threat for gusty winds in
showers and storms due to the stout gradient flow. Heavy downpours
cannot be ruled out, however low-topped quick moving showers will
lessen the likelihood of flooding through mid week.

Temperatures will continue to run near to slightly above normal in
the mid to upper 80s ("cooler" readings at the coast), with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Monday...The enlongated mid level ridge draped along the
Gulf Coast to coastal Carolinas will begin to erode later this week
as another trough digs through the Plains towards the Midwest. At
the same time, the GFS & ECM are in surprisingly good agreement on a
tropical cyclone (likely development of Invest 94L) swinging
northwestward, approaching very close to Bermuda this weekend.
Locally, this will simply keep a tight pressure gradient in place at
the surface, maintaining breezy easterly flow into the weekend. On
Sat/Sun, the ECM still picks up on a baroclinic low developing in
the northern GOMEX, on the tail end of an approaching cold front. On
the opposite side of the spectrum, the GFS has finally become
consistent on run-to-run, with no evidence of a Caribbean-developing
tropical cyclone, but also not reflecting this same feature as the
ECM.

As a result of all the mentioned factors, no noteworthy changes in
guidance through the end of the week and into early next, with deep
moisture still residing over the southern two thirds of the
peninsula. PoPs Thu-Sat in the 40-50% range due to this higher
moisture and potential of the ECM low solution into the weekend.
Next week, will carry 20-30% PoPs (near climo for late October),
with onshore flow holding steady. Each day, anticipate scattered
showers with the potential for isolated storms pushing westward
towards the interior. Temperatures will continue to run slightly
above normal values, in the mid 80s at the coast to upper 80s over
the interior in the afternoon, with nighttime lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered diurnal showers will redevelop around 15Z for
the coastal aerodromes, spreading quickly inland, and continuing on
and off through sunset. Gusts ENE winds from 060-080 continue along
the coast and will redevelop inland from mid-late morning through
this sunset. Speeds averaging 15-17KT, gusting to around 25kt along
the coast, a couple kt lower inland. 06Z TAF package kept mention of
VCSH for all aerodromes, but no TEMPO groups for now.

&&

.MARINE...Today-tonight...ENE winds near 20KT with seas 6-9ft,
temporarily subsiding to 6-8ft. Winds/seas are forecast to drop
below SCA criteria for the nearshore Volusia waters this afternoon
through tonight, but will need to monitor buoy obs to ensure this
actually takes place. SCA continues elsewhere.

Tuesday-Friday...Hazardous conditions will continue over the local
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Tight pressure gradient
will maintain onshore winds over 15 knots through mid week,
resulting in seas building to 7-9 ft. Late Thursday into Friday, the
gradient does begin to weaken slightly, with east winds diminishing
to less than 15 knots, however, a long period swell is anticipated
to arrive from a developing tropical system near Bermuda, which will
maintain seas up to 9 ft locally. As a result, the Small Craft
Advisory will likely be extended in time through the coming days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood
Stage, just below Moderate Flood, this week. Elsewhere, the Saint
Johns River at Sanford and above Lake Harney, is forecast to stay
within Action Stage, while at DeLand the river is forecast to remain
just below Action Stage. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS
Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  74  85  74 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  86  75  86  74 /  40  30  40  30
MLB  85  77  85  77 /  50  30  50  50
VRB  86  76  85  76 /  50  40  50  50
LEE  86  73  86  73 /  30  10  30  20
SFB  86  74  86  74 /  40  30  30  30
ORL  87  75  87  75 /  40  30  40  30
FPR  84  75  85  76 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern
     Brevard-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Smith
AVIATION...Cristaldi

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