Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
652 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over
southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through
north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward
through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms
have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central
and eastern Arkansas. So far, storms have remained mainly sub-
severe, as shear is likely overwhelming the thermodynamic
environment. However, the storms are moving into our area, which
is moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE available on
tap.

A tornado watch has been issued for the majority of Arkansas,
including all of eastern Arkansas until 7PM. The main risk with
these storms appears to be damaging winds and large hail attm,
with a low end tornado threat, as low level helicity is currently
below 100 m2/s2. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will
likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and
storms organize into quasi linear segments. Ample instability in
the 1500-2500 MLCAPE range combined with 0-6 km shear of 80kts,
and a coincident 100 kt 500mb jet streak, should be enough for a
strong line of storms to maintain through late this evening. The
primary risk still appears to be damaging winds with a secondary
threat of large hail and short-lived isolated tornadoes. The
threat will end after midnight as the front exits northeast
Mississippi. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible
overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area.

Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday,
leading to dry and pleasant conditions. Expect high temperatures
mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will quickly
slide by Monday as another system develops to our southwest. A
quick moving shortwave will eject across the Desert Southwest on
Monday and make its way into the Texas Panhandle late Monday
night. A surface low is expected to develop and track eastward
through northern Louisiana and Central Mississippi during the day
on Tuesday. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
across our area on Monday night and Tuesday. Due to the track of
the low, the severe threat will stay to our south and mainly along
the Gulf Coast. The system will likely be a heavy rainfall
producer for us and that's about it. The surface low is expected
to push southeast of the area by late Tuesday night, with Canadian
high pressure building into the Mid-South from the northwest.
This will lead to a few consecutive days of dry and near normal
temperatures. The next weather maker looks to arrive this weekend
as a cold front moves across the Mississippi Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Storms have been slower to translate east than earlier depicted by
the short range convection-allowing models. Other than TSRA timing
this evening, TAFs remain largely unchanged from the 18Z package.
VFR will prevail areawide on Sunday.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-292130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A tornado watch is in effect until 7PM CDT for all of eastern
Arkansas. Additional convective watches are possible downstream
later tonight.

Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are possible beginning early this
evening through approximately midnight for the entire Mid-South.
The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will exist mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRVIEW                35.77N  88.85W
03/28/2020                   MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN WITH ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
928 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNZ053-054-090>092-290300-
Hardeman TN-Henderson TN-Chester TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
928 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
South central Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Chester County in western Tennessee...
McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 928 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts of 50 to
55 mph was located near Masseyville, or 7 miles northwest of Selmer,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in east central Hardeman...south central Henderson...
Chester...McNairy and northwestern Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3512 8822 3503 8881 3543 8882 3545 8877
      3552 8835 3545 8825 3542 8825 3540 8821
      3538 8820 3539 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 241DEG 49KT 3523 8870

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
933 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW HENDERSON         35.41N  88.75W
03/28/2020                   CHESTER            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE FELL ON HOUSE ON PLEASANT SPRINGS ROAD NEAR
            CHICKASAW STATE PARK.

&&

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