Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A tornado watch remains in effect for North Mississippi. The last
few HRRR runs backed off of the 2nd round of thunderstorms this
evening, but has now increased coverage once again. However, the
surface low that was once well defined, tracking just South of
Memphis is much more diffuse as it tracks into West TN. The warm
front remains to our South but should begin to surge North over
the next few hours ushering in mid-60 degree dew points into
portions of North Mississippi. As this deeper moisture arrives, a
shortwave trough and 70kt mid level jet will shift across the
area. Low level shear remains impressive, 0-1km SRH in excess of
400 m2/s2 should be more than sufficient to support supercellular
storms capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind. The main limiting factor will be surface based instability,
which will remain limited until the warm front surges North. The
highest potential for a strong long tracked tornado will likely be
right along or just North of the warm front before sunset.

It is highly uncertain if additional storms will develop along the
cold front but if they do, conditions will be favorable for fast
moving short lived tornadoes as well as damaging wind. By
Midnight, the threat of any severe weather should be over.

Cooler conditions will arrive tomorrow.  Expect temperatures
around 15 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the 50s followed by a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. By
Thursday we should see highs in the middle to upper 60s across
most of the Midsouth. There could be frost across portions of West
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings.

A broad trough will deepen over much of the Eastern US Early in
the work week, a weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough
could result in a few light showers Tuesday, but otherwise dry
conditions are expected through Friday.

Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures Friday into the
weekend. No organized storm systems are expected though it looks
like a few additional showers are possible Friday night.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

Current -SHRA and -TSRA will continue to move east through the
day, with more scattered TSRA this afternoon. Models indicate a
line moving through buy 20Z then quickly moving towards the MS/AL
line by tonight. A second wave will approach the area but short
range models indicate it dissipating by the time it reaches the
MEM area. Strong gradient winds and LLWS can be expected through
the end of the period, with a wind shift to the northwest after
09Z.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

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