Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A tornado watch remains in effect for North Mississippi. The last
few HRRR runs backed off of the 2nd round of thunderstorms this
evening, but has now increased coverage once again. However, the
surface low that was once well defined, tracking just South of
Memphis is much more diffuse as it tracks into West TN. The warm
front remains to our South but should begin to surge North over
the next few hours ushering in mid-60 degree dew points into
portions of North Mississippi. As this deeper moisture arrives, a
shortwave trough and 70kt mid level jet will shift across the
area. Low level shear remains impressive, 0-1km SRH in excess of
400 m2/s2 should be more than sufficient to support supercellular
storms capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind. The main limiting factor will be surface based instability,
which will remain limited until the warm front surges North. The
highest potential for a strong long tracked tornado will likely be
right along or just North of the warm front before sunset.

It is highly uncertain if additional storms will develop along the
cold front but if they do, conditions will be favorable for fast
moving short lived tornadoes as well as damaging wind. By
Midnight, the threat of any severe weather should be over.

Cooler conditions will arrive tomorrow.  Expect temperatures
around 15 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the 50s followed by a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. By
Thursday we should see highs in the middle to upper 60s across
most of the Midsouth. There could be frost across portions of West
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings.

A broad trough will deepen over much of the Eastern US Early in
the work week, a weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough
could result in a few light showers Tuesday, but otherwise dry
conditions are expected through Friday.

Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures Friday into the
weekend. No organized storm systems are expected though it looks
like a few additional showers are possible Friday night.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

Current -SHRA and -TSRA will continue to move east through the
day, with more scattered TSRA this afternoon. Models indicate a
line moving through buy 20Z then quickly moving towards the MS/AL
line by tonight. A second wave will approach the area but short
range models indicate it dissipating by the time it reaches the
MEM area. Strong gradient winds and LLWS can be expected through
the end of the period, with a wind shift to the northwest after
09Z.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
936 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131645-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
936 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms along and south
of a line from Tupelo to Clarksdale Mississippi, and an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms across the remainder of the
Mid-South. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible
with thunderstorms that become severe. The time of greatest
threat for severe thunderstorms will be between 1 PM CDT and
midnight. A strong tornado or two are also possible over North
Mississippi.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of the Midsouth as in
excess of 5 inches of rainfall is possible now through midnight.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire Mid-South this
afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Frost is possible in portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and Northwest TN Wednesday morning and possibly again
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon into
evening in support of severe weather operations. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
910 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

MSZ006-121430-
Tishomingo MS-
910 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 910 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny size hailand
winds to 40 mph was located near Tishomingo State Park, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

People in southeastern Tishomingo County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3455 8814 3454 8815 3449 8825 3474 8823
      3480 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 234DEG 40KT 3467 8811

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
917 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

MSZ007-010>012-121445-
Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
917 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
East central Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 917 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 45 to 55 mph was located near Belen, or 16 miles
northeast of Clarksdale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

People in southeastern Tunica...east central Coahoma...northwestern
Panola and Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3435 9050 3462 9024 3460 9023 3460 9024
      3457 9021 3456 9021 3456 9020 3455 9017
      3436 8997 3412 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 235DEG 32KT 3432 9033

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