Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
529 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The latest surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary
across north Mississippi near the Tennessee border. Aloft, GOES
east Water Vapor Imagery shows a large upper low over Quebec with
a open shortwave over east Texas. Temperatures across the area
range from the mid 60s in near the Tennessee River to lower 70s
across the rest of the area. KNQA radar was picking up a few
transiting showers across west Tennessee and north Mississippi at
this hour.

Short term...Today through Friday...
The aforementioned boundary will remain nearly stationary over
north Mississippi over the next 72 hours or so. Expect mainly
diurnal convection near this boundary each day. With weak steering
flow and high PWAT values in place, there is some concern that
training of showers and thunderstorms may create a variety of
flooding issues this afternoon. In addition, antecedent
conditions are depicted quite well. MRMS precipitation data shows
that a large swath of 1-3 inches of rainfall occurred over north
Mississippi in the past 24 hours. We also had a couple reports of
flash flooding and water rescues yesterday. Will add the threat
for additional flooding to the HWO for at least today.

North of the boundary, lower humidity and sunny skies can be
expected. Highs will remain slightly below normal with readings
mainly in the mid to upper 80s through Friday.

Long term...This weekend through early next week...
Zonal flow aloft will allow multiple low amplitude shortwaves
to rotate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Saturday looks to
stay mostly dry, although an MCS may clip the northern portions
of the Mid-South overnight into Sunday. A more pronounced
shortwave is expected to rotate through the region Sunday
afternoon with pretty good coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the area.

By early next week, an Omega Blocking Pattern looks to establish
itself over the CONUS. The Mid-South will remain on the
southwestern flank of the east coast low, which will setup northwest
flow over the area. This will likely result in an MCS-type
pattern each day through the middle of next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak, diffuse cold front is entering the area with a mild,
humid airmass in place across much of the Mid-South. Dewpoint
depressions are 1F or less along and south of I-40. Becoming more
confident in IFR cigs or dense fog along and south of I-40
including KMEM, KMKL and KTUP. Conds will improve back to VFR
Wednesday morning with isolated to scattered TSRAs across north MS
as the front stalls across that area. Added a VCTS at KTUP. Wind
will be light overnight shifting to light north...except KTUP
where front in the area will result in variable winds.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
449 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-251200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
449 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over north
Mississippi this afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall is possible, which could result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
210 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HELENA                  34.53N  90.60W
06/23/2020                   PHILLIPS           AR   LOCAL OFFICIAL

            VEHICLES STRANDED, WATER RESCUES

&&

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
214 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HELENA                  34.53N  90.60W
06/23/2020                   PHILLIPS           AR   LOCAL OFFICIAL

            TRESS DOWN, POWERLINES DOWN ON SPRINGDALE ROAD

&&

PWB