Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Memphis, TN

042 
WGUS74 KMEG 242033
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

MSC013-017-057-081-095-242043-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200624T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-Itawamba MS-Lee MS-Monroe MS-
333 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN CALHOUN, CHICKASAW, 
SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA, SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND MONROE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3388 8951 3394 8933 3398 8905 3410 8874
      3422 8821 3416 8819 3374 8825 3375 8832
      3369 8837 3365 8851 3367 8849 3368 8872
      3381 8873 3381 8893 3375 8893 3374 8903
      3372 8951

$$

SGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures in the 70s. One area of thunderstorms is exiting
northeast Mississippi with another area moving across north
Mississippi. Frontal boundary remains over north Mississippi at
this time. More thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
south of the boundary this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms
will produce locally heavy rainfall. Will update forecast to
remove morning wording.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...

The latest surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary
across north Mississippi near the Tennessee border. Aloft, GOES
east Water Vapor Imagery shows a large upper low over Quebec with
a open shortwave over east Texas. Temperatures across the area
range from the mid 60s in near the Tennessee River to lower 70s
across the rest of the area. KNQA radar was picking up a few
transiting showers across west Tennessee and north Mississippi at
this hour.

Short term...Today through Friday...
The aforementioned boundary will remain nearly stationary over
north Mississippi over the next 72 hours or so. Expect mainly
diurnal convection near this boundary each day. With weak steering
flow and high PWAT values in place, there is some concern that
training of showers and thunderstorms may create a variety of
flooding issues this afternoon. In addition, antecedent
conditions are depicted quite well. MRMS precipitation data shows
that a large swath of 1-3 inches of rainfall occurred over north
Mississippi in the past 24 hours. We also had a couple reports of
flash flooding and water rescues yesterday. Will add the threat
for additional flooding to the HWO for at least today.

North of the boundary, lower humidity and sunny skies can be
expected. Highs will remain slightly below normal with readings
mainly in the mid to upper 80s through Friday.

Long term...This weekend through early next week...
Zonal flow aloft will allow multiple low amplitude shortwaves
to rotate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Saturday looks to
stay mostly dry, although an MCS may clip the northern portions
of the Mid-South overnight into Sunday. A more pronounced
shortwave is expected to rotate through the region Sunday
afternoon with pretty good coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the area.

By early next week, an Omega Blocking Pattern looks to establish
itself over the CONUS. The Mid-South will remain on the
southwestern flank of the east coast low, which will setup northwest
flow over the area. This will likely result in an MCS-type
pattern each day through the middle of next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Showers should persist over northern Mississippi for most for the
day, likely not affecting the other sites. There could be a stray
shower that moves into MEM but confidence is low at this time.
Ceilings will drop over night with BR affecting MKL, MEM and TUP
over night. Ceilings should improve by tomorrow morning at MKL and
MEM. Winds will be SW for most of the TAF period.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
449 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-251200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
449 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over north
Mississippi this afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall is possible, which could result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

MSZ006-241445-
Tishomingo MS-
921 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 921 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Tishomingo State Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Tishomingo County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3446 8816 3447 8833 3463 8833 3475 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 244DEG 28KT 3457 8823

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
127 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

MSZ017-023-024-241915-
Itawamba MS-Monroe MS-Chickasaw MS-
127 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 127 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Prairie, or 9 miles south of Okolona, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Itawamba...northern Monroe and southeastern
Chickasaw Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 8872 3381 8887 3393 8894 3420 8819
      3393 8823 3377 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 244DEG 48KT 3387 8871

SGW