Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Memphis, TN

321 
WGUS74 KMEG 122355
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

MSC003-TNC109-130005-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200913T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcorn MS-McNairy TN-
655 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN ALCORN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3504 8851 3506 8847 3507 8851 3505 8838
      3504 8838 3500 8838 3500 8837 3497 8837
      3491 8845 3484 8859 3488 8865 3492 8864
      3495 8862

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
313 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical moisture connection will continue into the Midsouth on
Sunday, around the western periphery of a ridge axis along the
Carolina coast. This moisture axis will drop south slightly
relative to today, in response to height falls and a weak
frontal/dry air intrusion to areas north of I-40.

Attention then turns to Tropical Storm Sally, which is forecast to
reach hurricane strength off the LA/MS coast Monday evening.
Sally will have limited impacts on the Midsouth early in the week,
other than backed northeast surface flow and outer rain bands
possibly affecting north MS. Too early to say with confidence,
but Sally's remnant low will most likely track NNE east of the MS
River, ahead of an upstream trof over the southern plains. Again,
too early to pin down a post-landfall track. Current reasoning
based on the ECMWF which has been the most consistent of the
medium range models over the past few runs.

Sally's eventual track aside, northwest flow aloft and cold
frontal passage appear probably over the Midsouth late Thursday
into Friday. Operational GFS remains an outlier depicting a 589 dm
500mb ridge center over Memphis, but the GFS ensemble average
was in relatively tight agreement with the ECMWF. With Sally out
of the picture, cooler dewpoints and nighttime lows may provide an
early taste of autumn for the Midsouth next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

As of 18Z, a cold front is located west of the MS River with
showers and some thunderstorms continuing to develop across areas
along and east of the MS River. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through the afternoon with some showers into the
evening. VFR/MVFR conditions expected to become more persistent
MVFR conditions late tonight into Sunday morning. Potential exists
for some IFR conditions at MEM,MKL,TUP during this period but
confidence isn't high enough in this TAF set to include at this
time but will continue to monitor for inclusion in future sets.
Winds will remain relatively light through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-132230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
319 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall
through late evening. This may result in minor flooding of low-
lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The potential for locally heavy rainfall will continue along and
ahead of a cold front, mainly affecting areas south of Interstate
40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB