Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Memphis, TN

809 
WGUS74 KMEG 121856
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
156 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

MSC093-TNC047-122000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200912T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marshall MS-Fayette TN-
156 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE 
COUNTIES...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Byhalia, Mt Pleasant, Slayden, Red Banks, Piperton, Rossville, 
  Moscow, Taska, Cayce, Victoria, Hays Crossing and Coal Oil Corner.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8956 3512 8945 3504 8939 3488 8947
      3479 8960 3478 8962 3478 8966 3487 8971
      3495 8967

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

875 
WGUS74 KMEG 122005
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

MSC093-TNC047-122015-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200912T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marshall MS-Fayette TN-
305 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND 
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3510 8956 3512 8945 3504 8939 3488 8947
      3479 8960 3478 8962 3478 8966 3487 8971
      3495 8967

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/

UPDATE...
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The deep, closed upper low over the Northern Plains will continue
to move slowly east today as the Southeast ridge gradually weakens
and shifts off the Carolina coast. Tropical Depression 19 near the
tip of south FL will continue to trek to the WNW on the southern
periphery of the ridge and a weaker disturbance is currently
located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Moisture
associated with this wave is streaming north into the Mid-South
per GOES water vapor, independent of the subtropical moisture tap
emanating from the eastern Pacific across Mexico and into the
Great Lakes. The Blended Total Precipitable Water (PWAT) indicates
PWATs already exceeding 2" across much of the Mid-South, compared
to 1.25" at this time yesterday.

Falling geopotential heights associated with the retreating ridge
and approaching trough will continue to cool mid-level temps,
increasing instability across the region today. Scattered showers
are expected to develop this morning, with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There is some indication
that convection may try to line up along a surface trough today
from SW to NE, resulting in some training. High PWATs and a high
melting level suggest a potential for locally heavy rainfall.
This is captured by the 90th percentile QPF from WPC, where some
areas could see 1-2" with localized higher amounts. Most areas
will likely see much less, but will mention the potential for
locally heavy rainfall into today's Hazardous Weather Outlook
(HWO) as there is a Marginal Risk in the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO).

Convection will gradually dissipate this evening with scattered
showers possible overnight. However, a cold front will move
through the CWA on Sunday, serving as a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Rain chances on
Sunday will be greatest across north MS and portions of west TN.
The Day 2 ERO continues to highlight the possibility for locally
heavy rainfall Sunday, mainly south of I-40. Expect a pleasant
Sunday night as rain ends and slightly cooler air moves into the
Mid-South.

Despite the frontal passage, moisture will remain above
climatology early in the week with PWATs greater than 1.6" south
of I-40. This will keep showers and thunderstorms, primarily
diurnally driven, in the forecast Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will top out in the 80s with overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

The track of TD 19 will come into play by midweek. The current
NHC forecast brings the relatively small (areal extent) Tropical
Storm toward New Orleans by Tuesday evening, eventually drifting
into southwest MS by Wednesday. It's difficult to say how this
will impact the Mid-South. One one hand, being on the northern
side of this system could result in subsidence which may limit the
potential for significant rainfall. But we could also see the
deep, tropical moisture wrap around the decaying cyclone,
increasing the rainfall potential. The EPS/GEFS mean PWAT
indicates a slight drying early in the week, with a surge of
deeper moisture Wednesday into Thursday, with PWATs again
approaching 2". Will continue to watch how this system evolves
before introducing heavy rainfall to the HWO for midweek.

The global models are in general agreement that a trough will dig
over the eastern CONUS late in the week, pushing another weak cold
front into the Mid-South late Thursday or Friday. The wind shift
may be masked by the northeasterly flow around the remnants of TD
19, but it should bring some drier air back into the region. The
ensembles do offer a little hope for a slightly cooler period next
weekend, but we don't want to get too far ahead this far out.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

As of 18Z, a cold front is located west of the MS River with
showers and some thunderstorms continuing to develop across areas
along and east of the MS River. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through the afternoon with some showers into the
evening. VFR/MVFR conditions expected to become more persistent
MVFR conditions late tonight into Sunday morning. Potential exists
for some IFR conditions at MEM,MKL,TUP during this period but
confidence isn't high enough in this TAF set to include at this
time but will continue to monitor for inclusion in future sets.
Winds will remain relatively light through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
438 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
438 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the Mid-South today. This may result in minor
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The potential for locally heavy rainfall will continue along and
ahead of a cold front, mainly affecting areas south of Interstate
40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.