Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
The dryline is beginning to strengthen and move east from the
western Permian Basin south to the eastern slopes of the Davis
Mountains. Some cumulus clouds and thunderstorms are forming just
northeast of Fort Davis. The dryline will move into the central
and eastern Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to
late afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues. A weak
disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with
help from the higher terrain, should break the cap and generate a
few late day thunderstorms just east of the Davis Mountains in the
lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible further northeast along the dryline across
the eastern Permian Basin toward evening, but the cap will be
harder to break in that region. Thunderstorms will have the
potential to become severe given wind shear of around 30 knots
combined with very steep lapse rates generating moderate to strong
instability. Any activity would dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating and as the disturbance moves east away from the
region.

Northwesterly flow aloft is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The
dryline should push even further east toward west central Texas
Tuesday, keeping the forecast area dry with near record to record
high temperatures in downslope flow. A dry cold front is forecast
to backdoor into the region Tuesday night with cooler temperatures
(but still near normal) and windy conditions early Wednesday.
There could be a brief period of advisory level winds across the
eastern Permian Basin early Wednesday with high gap winds through
Guadalupe Pass behind the front. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

Much above normal temperatures are expected to return by Thursday
and continue through next weekend. Mid level moisture combined
with very intense heating along the dryline could generate
some afternoon and early evening thunderstorms along the dryline
in west Texas this weekend but confidence was not high enough to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66 100  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  99  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67 102  65  86 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67 100  61  76 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  89  56  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  97  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  94  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           65 100  61  82 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         65 100  60  80 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           60 102  61  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

72/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-282030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
316 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 /216 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
the eastern Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos... and eastern
Brewster county. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Large
hail, damaging winds, and lightning are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon or evening
across the Lower Trans Pecos.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

TXZ075-082-279-272215-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Central Brewster County TX-
430 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PECOS...NORTHEASTERN
BREWSTER AND NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 25 miles west of Sheffield to 27 miles east of
Marathon. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3067 10187 3033 10197 3031 10198 3007 10245
      3025 10295 3045 10256 3048 10252 3068 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 285DEG 23KT 3062 10224 3042 10241 3043 10243
3025 10278

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
440 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

TXZ068-069-075-272230-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-
440 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles west of McCamey, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McCamey, Upton County Airport, Girvin and Cordona Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3113 10206 3108 10218 3109 10237 3105 10231
      3104 10229 3093 10254 3113 10271 3145 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 226DEG 19KT 3109 10257

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

TXZ075-082-279-282-272300-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Central Brewster County TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-
513 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS...EAST
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles southwest of Sheffield to 19 miles
north of Dryden to 8 miles northeast of Sanderson. Movement was east
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson, Terrell County Gas Plant and Terrell County Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3046 10170 3047 10173 3044 10172 3042 10174
      3040 10170 3037 10170 3024 10185 3019 10196
      2985 10241 3001 10298 3029 10251 3035 10235
      3047 10223 3057 10223 3058 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 280DEG 16KT 3056 10208 3044 10208 3031 10224
3026 10235 3012 10261

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

TXZ068-069-272300-
Crane TX-Upton TX-
513 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRANE AND NORTHERN
UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crane, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, King Mountain and Crane County Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3133 10189 3128 10229 3143 10250 3165 10217
      3165 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 255DEG 21KT 3138 10235