Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
The dryline is beginning to strengthen and move east from the
western Permian Basin south to the eastern slopes of the Davis
Mountains. Some cumulus clouds and thunderstorms are forming just
northeast of Fort Davis. The dryline will move into the central
and eastern Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to
late afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues. A weak
disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with
help from the higher terrain, should break the cap and generate a
few late day thunderstorms just east of the Davis Mountains in the
lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible further northeast along the dryline across
the eastern Permian Basin toward evening, but the cap will be
harder to break in that region. Thunderstorms will have the
potential to become severe given wind shear of around 30 knots
combined with very steep lapse rates generating moderate to strong
instability. Any activity would dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating and as the disturbance moves east away from the
region.

Northwesterly flow aloft is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The
dryline should push even further east toward west central Texas
Tuesday, keeping the forecast area dry with near record to record
high temperatures in downslope flow. A dry cold front is forecast
to backdoor into the region Tuesday night with cooler temperatures
(but still near normal) and windy conditions early Wednesday.
There could be a brief period of advisory level winds across the
eastern Permian Basin early Wednesday with high gap winds through
Guadalupe Pass behind the front. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

Much above normal temperatures are expected to return by Thursday
and continue through next weekend. Mid level moisture combined
with very intense heating along the dryline could generate
some afternoon and early evening thunderstorms along the dryline
in west Texas this weekend but confidence was not high enough to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66 100  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  99  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67 102  65  86 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67 100  61  76 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  89  56  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  97  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  94  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           65 100  61  82 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         65 100  60  80 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           60 102  61  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

72/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-282030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
316 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 /216 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
the eastern Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos... and eastern
Brewster county. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Large
hail, damaging winds, and lightning are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon or evening
across the Lower Trans Pecos.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>