Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms ongoing at issuance look to affect MAF within the
first couple of hours of the forecast period, with potential
MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain and blowing dust as well as
erratic, gusty winds and lightning. Other terminals do not look to
be impacted by storms, though outflow boundaries may result in
erratic winds between 00-03Z. Outside of storms, VFR conditions
will prevail, with southeasterly winds tonight veering around to
the south/southwest late Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends
southward into Texas. A dryline is expected to develop across West
Texas this afternoon with very moist air to the east of this
feature. The NAM12 is showing CAPE (Convective Available Potential
Energy) values of 2,000 to 4,000+ across West Texas and across
portions of Lea County in New Mexico. Bulk wind shear values will
get up to 30 to 40 knots across portions of the area. It appears
that the convection to the north of the area this morning left a
boundary in place that could be the focus for thunderstorms
developing this afternoon across the Permian Basin. Thunderstorms
are also expected to develop in/near the Davis Mountains and Lower
Trans Pecos. These storms have the potential to become severe given
the previously mentioned conditions. Temperatures today will be
similar to those yesterday with highs in the 90s and triple digits.

The upper trough axis will move east of the area on Sunday, and the
dryline will be pushed to the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Storms will continue to be possible across those areas,
and the threat for severe storms will still be present. Temperatures
on Sunday will heat up from today as westerly winds across much of
the area contribute to downslope warming. Similar conditions will be
present for Monday with temperatures heating up into the triple
digits across most of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. It looks
like Heat Advisories will likely be issued for Monday for portions
of the area. A cold front is expected to move into the area Tuesday
morning resulting in highs in the 90s for most of the County Warning
Area (CWA). Rain and storms will be possible along this front.
Rain and storm chances will increase on Wednesday from the
previous day and temperatures will be a little cooler.
Precipitation chances continue into Thursday with temperatures
warming up a little from Wednesday. Temperatures will warm up and
precipitation chances will diminish Friday and next Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72 102  74 105 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       66 105  70 108 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73 100  73 103 /  20  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  71 102  73 105 /  20  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  94  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66 102  67 105 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  97  62 100 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71 103  73 106 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         71 103  73 106 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           71 106  72 109 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

49/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-210745-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
236 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 /136 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances of severe weather will exist for west Texas this afternoon.
Large hail and damaging winds will remain the greatest threats.

Elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Southeast New Mexico
and the Guadalupe mountains this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances of severe weather will remain for west Texas on Sunday.
Large hail and damaging winds will remain the greatest threats.

High temperatures will reach into the upper 90s and topping the
triple digits on Sunday and Monday areawide. Some heat advisories are
increasingly likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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