Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday...
We are facing a high CAPE / weak shear type of thunderstorm
environment this evening. Strong H5 low is off the southern CA
coast, and has been ejecting some weak shortwaves to the east.
Subtropical jet is streaming across Baja Ca, over TX, and across AR,
while the polar jet is digging south out of Canada, dropping a trof
over the Great Lakes region. Both jets are essentially converging on
the midsection of the country, creating a somewhat unfavorable upper
level environment for thunderstorm development.

At the surface, a cold front is diving southward across the Plains,
and will be pushing into Arkansas tonight.

The front will be pushing it's way into a very warm, humid and
unstable airmass. Model soundings have been indicating maximum
MLCAPE values between 2500-5000 j/kg across the eastern half of the
state this afternoon into this evening. While some of this may a bit
overdone, an 18Z sounding here at LZK has indicated a MLCAPE value
of 3300 j/kg, so values upward of 4000 j/kg to the east do not seem
unrealistic. There is not an excessive amount of CIN to overcome, so
with the front pushing into the area, there would appear to be
little to hold back thunderstorm development.

The limiting factor, of course, will be the weakly sheared
environment, in addition to the lack of upper level support - which
may even contribute negatively to the environment.

Midlevel lapse rates are very steep, and if any large storms are
able to develop, there will be a risk for substantially large hail.
My confidence in this scenario is only moderate at the moment, but
the potential for large hail - larger than 2" probably - is
certainly there.

If a QLCS does develop, the inflow environment will also support the
development of shorter-lived tornadoes along the line. It's possible
this may not happen in the LZK CWA, but again, the potential is
certainly there.

The NAM Nest and WRF NMM models have been more forthright in
developing a QLCS after 00Z and bringing it down into the eastern
half of the CWA, with the line moving down into SE Arkansas well
after 06Z. The HRRR has been much more conservative, generally
keeping most of the activity well to the east. However, the ESRL
HRRR and more recent runs of the HRRR are trending more toward the
NAM/WRF solution. They are certainly not in agreement, but this does
add confidence to the forecast of strong thunderstorms tonight.

Putting it all together, we are probably not looking at a high-
impact widespread severe weather event. Most of the event will
probably occur east of the LZK forecast area. However, there could
certainly be areas of wind damage, large hail, and even a few
tornadoes depending upon what sets up across the area tonight. The
most likely scenario brings a QLCS thru the eastern CWA, which may
not even be a continuous line. We also have to watch for any cells
that develop ahead of the line, especially in this high-CAPE
environment.

With all that said, the cold front should sweep thru the area
tonight and bring dry weather to the area for the remainder of the
short term.

&&

.Extended Term...Friday Night thru Wednesday...
The extended period will remain unsettled through the extended
period. Rain chances will begin to increase across the area on
Saturday as an upper level low across the Four Corner's Region and
attendant cold front move eastward. Chances for rain will linger
through the weekend and into early portions of next week as the low
strengthens over the Natural State. Thunderstorms will be possible,
some of which could become severe, especially across the southern
portions of the state where the instability is more favorable for
convection.

Slight rain chances will linger through early portions of next week
as mean troughing overcomes much of the CONUS, and small
perturbations in the flow intermittently swing through the state.
Temperatures will be much cooler through the extended, especially
after the aforementioned cold front moves through on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  68  39  60 /  40   0  10   0
Camden AR         62  73  50  67 /  20   0  10   0
Harrison AR       48  64  35  59 /  20  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    59  71  47  64 /  30   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  57  71  46  62 /  50   0  10   0
Monticello AR     61  71  48  63 /  30   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      57  71  45  64 /  20   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  48  65  35  60 /  30  10  10   0
Newport AR        52  67  41  56 /  40   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     59  70  47  61 /  40   0  10   0
Russellville AR   54  71  42  63 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         54  69  42  60 /  60   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  69  45  60 /  50   0  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

Short Term...53 / Extended Term...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the state
today and tonight. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats, however a tornado or two can not be ruled out
across the northeastern portions of the state.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Storms will shift southeast of Arkansas on Thursday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread by Saturday
and Saturday Night, as a stronger storm system affects the state.
There could be a few strong storms on Saturday Night and Sunday,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary concern. The system
will exit the state on Sunday Night or early Monday, with colder air
moving in behind it. By Tuesday morning, some locations over
northwest Arkansas could see temperatures close to freezing.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidance.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
437 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARZ004-005-082215-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-
437 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARION AND NORTHERN
BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arkawana, or near Bull Shoals, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Arkawana...
Ozark Regional Airport...         Gamaliel Landing...
Fawn Park...                      Bull Shoals State Park...
Midway in Baxter County...        Clarkridge...
Gamaliel...                       Three Brothers...
Robinson Point Landing...         Henderson...
Norfork Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3649 9221 3633 9222 3632 9255 3635 9260
      3642 9260 3650 9240 3650 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 245DEG 21KT 3639 9249

Cooper

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