Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.Short Term...Tonight thru Saturday...
We are setting up for another possible severe weather event tonight
across the area. Last night I had expected the warm front to push
all the way northward to the AR/MO border, but that did not
happen...the front stalled out over central AR. Thru the day the
front has moved more to the north, but quite frankly it is a bit
diffuse and hard to pinpoint exactly. Regardless, a cold front will
be sweeping down into the state tonight, and convection is expected
to fire up along and ahead of the front.

Models are a mixed bag, with some showing more of a QLCS situation,
with some favoring supercells ahead of a line. There is a fair
amount of directional and speed shear present, albeit less than I
anticipated yesterday. Even so, I anticipate that any larger storms
should be capble of forming mesocyclones and rotating.

Skies cleared quite a bit today across northern AR and the river
valley, with partial clearing across much of the rest of the state.
This has allowed temperatures to rise above forecat values, and
presumably CAPE values will be higher for convection this afternoon
and evening. I am thinking that many areas across the northern half
of the state have mixed layer 1000-1500j/kg CAPE values, with some
higher pockets likely. Forecast BRN values are in the teens to the
30's, and this strongly favors the development of supercells.

One caveat is that forecast soundings show a fair amount of capping,
but this could be beneficial to any stronger storms that break thru
the cap. We have a 21Z sounding going up today, and hopefully this
will give us a better picture of how the atmosphere has evolved
during the day.

Putting it all together, I think we could see some cells develop out
ahead of the front, with some possibly becoming supercells, followed
by a broken squall line behind it. SPC may be issuing a tornado
watch for part of the area soon, and this certainly seems
justified.

After tonight, I haven't made any large scale changes to the
existing forecast. The upper low across the southwest will move
quickly toward the area and will exhibit considerable
deamplification. There should be enough energy with this shortwaveto
keep chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast
thru Saturday.

&&

.Extended Term...Saturday Night Through Wednesday...
Not many changes to the long term portion of the forecast this
afternoon, with most eyes still focused on short term severe
weather impacts.

Cooler temperatures than what have been observed recently will be in
place across the area this weekend into early next week. Throughout
the week, temperatures will begin to moderate. A surface boundary
will remain in the vicinity of the state through the long term
portion of the forecast, acting as a focusing mechanism for precip.

A few H500 lows will meander their way eastward from the western US,
while encountering ridging across the Gulf of Mexico into the
southern US. Across the state, persistent energy will overspread the
area in the SW flow aloft. With abundant moisture in place near the
surface, persistent and widespread rainfall is expected across the
forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     49  55  42  48 /  60  30  80  80
Camden AR         58  58  51  70 / 100 100  60  50
Harrison AR       44  53  39  48 /  10  30  90  90
Hot Springs AR    54  56  47  61 / 100  80  70  80
Little Rock   AR  53  56  46  58 / 100  70  70  70
Monticello AR     57  59  52  70 / 100  90  50  50
Mount Ida AR      52  55  46  61 /  90  90  80  80
Mountain Home AR  45  55  39  46 /  10  20  80  90
Newport AR        50  55  44  49 /  80  20  80  80
Pine Bluff AR     54  55  49  65 / 100  80  60  60
Russellville AR   52  56  45  55 /  40  60  80  80
Searcy AR         52  54  44  54 /  90  50  80  80
Stuttgart AR      54  55  47  60 / 100  70  70  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...53 / Extended Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
453 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
453 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms are expected. Large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected through most of the long
term period. Locally heavy rainfall may be a concern toward the end
of the week and into the weekend. Currently...flash flooding
potential remains low...but some localized high water issues may
occur.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
358 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ003-004-012-013-122145-
Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-
358 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEARCY...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN MARION AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pruitt, or 8 miles northeast of Jasper, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yellville...                      Western Grove...
Valley Springs...                 Dugger...
Olvey...                          Pruitt...
Crawford...                       Maumee...
Summit...                         Bellefonte...
Everton...                        St. Joe...
Pindall...                        Marble Falls...
Yardelle...                       Ralph...
Mull...                           Gaither...
Maumee Crossing...                Eros...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3601 9317 3618 9320 3626 9262 3603 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 261DEG 37KT 3611 9310

Cross

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
419 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             FAWN PARK               36.39N  92.36W
03/12/2020  E1.25 INCH       BAXTER             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2000154

JHOOD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
448 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ004-005-013>016-023-024-122230-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Stone AR-Independence AR-Van Buren AR-
Izard AR-Cleburne AR-
448 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONE...WEST CENTRAL
INDEPENDENCE...SOUTHWESTERN IZARD...EASTERN SEARCY...SOUTHEASTERN
MARION...NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...NORTHWESTERN CLEBURNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maumee, or 8 miles northeast of Marshall, moving southeast at 60 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Fairfield Bay...
Marshall...                       Calico Rock...
Greers Ferry...                   Norfork...
Salesville...                     Shirley...
Briarcliff...                     Higden...
Duff...                           Herron...
Maumee...                         Herpel...
Advance...                        Cartney...
Sugar Loaf Recreation Area...     Culp...
Elberta...                        Blanchard Springs Campground...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3602 9281 3628 9228 3574 9172 3552 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 301DEG 54KT 3601 9254

Cross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
452 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ030-038-122230-
Logan AR-Yell AR-
452 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN YELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ratcliff, or near Paris, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Booneville...                     Paris...
Danville...                       Magazine...
Subiaco...                        Ratcliff...
Blue Mountain...                  Mount Magazine...
Midway in Logan County...         Lake Dardanelle...
Belleville...                     Havana...
Caulksville...                    Corinth...
Waveland...                       Chismville...
Wilkins...                        Carbon City...
Driggs...                         New Blaine...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for western and
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3523 9395 3523 9392 3532 9392 3531 9381
      3538 9381 3538 9376 3536 9375 3537 9372
      3534 9342 3533 9342 3533 9331 3503 9343
      3517 9397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 276DEG 27KT 3525 9382

Cross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

ARZ030-037-122230-
Scott AR-Logan AR-
455 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Huntington to near Heavener Runestone State
Park. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Booneville...                     Waldron...
Mansfield...                      Magazine...
Echo...                           Oliver...
Morgan Springs...                 Bates...
Barber...                         Cauthron...
Winfield...                       Hon...
Lucas...                          Carolan...
Glendale in Logan County...       Ione...
Elm Park...                       Liberty...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for western
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3493 9443 3495 9441 3494 9439
      3496 9437 3495 9434 3496 9426 3497 9423
      3506 9423 3506 9425 3510 9414 3514 9414
      3514 9403 3519 9403 3514 9378 3485 9421
      3487 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 256DEG 29KT 3509 9425 3494 9451

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W VIOLA               36.40N  92.13W
03/12/2020                   FULTON             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES BLOWN OVER 8 MILES WEST OF VIOLA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2000155

GOUDSWARD