Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Continuing to monitor a region of excessive rainfall over parts of
Wrn AR this early AM. Efficient rainfall from nearly stationary
storms earlier Fri evening and continuous training storms will
continue to require diligent monitoring for flash flooding as well
as river flooding over the next few days. Short term CAM guidance
has struggled to depict the evolution of convection Fri night, with
a broken line of convection which has remained outflow dominant for
a few hours is beginning to translate towards the S/E. Efficient
rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will remain possible as
these storms continue to move S/Ewrd in the presence of rich PWATs
of 1.5-2 inches and a 30-40 kt LLJ. Heavy rainfall and accumulations
will continue across much of Cntrl and Srn AR through this morning
with precipitation dissipating after sunrise Sat morning.

For the rest of Sat, relatively "dry" conditions will resume, with a
few scattered showers possible, and a stagnant pattern setting up.
Srly flow will continue to advect rich gulf moisture into the state,
with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s/lower 70s by Sat evening.
Through the remainder of the period, upper ridging will settle
across the Cntrl/Srn US, leaving the fcst area devoid of large scale
forcing for any kind of pattern change. However, abundant low-level
moisture in the presence of WAA/isentropic ascent will allow for
PoPs to increase in coverage and magnitude by Sun morning, with
scattered precipitation and a few rumbles of thunder possible over
much of the fcst area.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Friday

An upper level trough will be in place over the Rockies into the
High Plains at the start of the long term period...with a ridge over
the SERN CONUS. Flow over AR will be mainly from the south and SW
starting Mon...with moisture levels remaining high over the region.
A shortwave trough will lift NE over TX into OK...but looks to then
become enveloped into the larger scale upper trough as the larger
trough drifts east into the Plains. As this happens...expect a
closed upper low to develop as a result...rotating just west of AR
over OK and TX. This upper low looks to then slowly meander over
this general area for several days next week.

The aforementioned pattern doesn't bode well for any extended dry
periods in the coming week. In fact...much of the area will see rain
chances remaining fairly high for much of the upcoming week. Given
the already saturated soils across much of the state...any areas of
excessive rainfall may create flash flooding...as well as keep
already high river levels up...or allow them to rise further. The
question however will be where the exact areas of heavy rainfall
will occur. Given the upper low situated to the west of AR...do
think the heavier rainfall will be for the WRN half of the area.
Even so...any part of the CWA will see at least some potential for
heavy rain through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  70  87  68 /  40  10  40  30
Camden AR         90  71  88  69 /  50  10  40  30
Harrison AR       83  67  84  65 /  30  10  30  30
Hot Springs AR    85  71  86  68 /  80  10  40  40
Little Rock   AR  88  71  88  68 /  80  10  30  30
Monticello AR     90  72  89  71 /  40  10  30  30
Mount Ida AR      84  71  85  67 /  80  10  40  40
Mountain Home AR  84  67  86  66 /  30  10  30  30
Newport AR        85  70  87  70 /  40  10  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     90  71  89  69 /  70  10  30  30
Russellville AR   86  70  87  68 /  40  10  40  40
Searcy AR         87  70  88  69 /  80  10  30  30
Stuttgart AR      88  71  89  71 /  70  10  30  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...GREEN / Long Term...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
417 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
417 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
the late morning. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but
some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail. The
largest concern from these storms will locally heavy rainfall
especially on areas that have already seen considerable rain
Friday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again
this afternoon and evening with some of the stronger storms still
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and storms will be possible virtually every day through
next week with the most widespread activity expected late Sunday
and into next week. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible.

While all storms are accompanied by a lightning threat, some of
the stronger storms may produce locally strong wind gusts and
small hail. A few severe storms are possible, but at this time,
the timing and certainty of any severe threat remains unclear.

With several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through
the week, heavy rainfall could allow for rises on area lakes and
rivers.

Your best bet is to continue to monitor the latest forecasts and
outlooks from your National Weather Service as updates will be
made in the coming days.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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