Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS St. Louis, MO

003 
WWUS53 KLSX 280437
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1137 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

MOC139-219-280446-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-200328T0500Z/
Montgomery MO-Warren MO-
1137 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND
CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Illinois...and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3902 9058 3886 9058 3886 9085 3887 9096
      3887 9110 3888 9111 3892 9111 3893 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 257DEG 49KT 3890 9096 

$$

ILC013-MOC113-183-280500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-200328T0500Z/
Calhoun IL-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-
1137 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 1136 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Moscow Mills,
moving east at 55 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This storm has a long history of 
         very large hail to 3 inches in diameter.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, St. Paul, Moscow Mills, Winfield, Fountain N' Lakes, Chain of
Rocks, Flint Hill, Old Monroe, Brussels, Meppen, Beechville and
Golden Eagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9058 3886 9058 3886 9085 3887 9096
      3887 9110 3888 9111 3892 9111 3893 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 257DEG 49KT 3890 9096 

HAIL...3.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Glass

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
918 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Strong to severe storms have developed over central Missouri
along the quasi-stationary front. Latest objective analysis is
showing that the MUCAPES have increased into the 1000-2000+ J/kg
range with deep layer shear of 70-80KTS. This latest development
is occurring as a 35kt low level jet has intersected the front.
Expect these storms to continue to develop and move quickly
northeast across central and east central Missouri into southwest
Illinois. RAP mass fields and CAMS still support thunderstorms
becoming more numerous late this evening into the overnight across
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois as the front begins
to lift north. Still expect the rain to decrease in areal extent
late tonight as the low level jet veers.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Quasi-stationary has moved very little today and was located
roughly along I-70 late this afternoon. Latest objective analysis
was showing MLCAPES of 1000-2000 J/kg with deep layer shear values of
70kts. Forecast from the RAP are depicting that these values will
develop across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois by early evening. Severe thunderstorms have
developed over southwest Missouri in this unstable airmass. The
CAMS have been fairly consistent today in developing thunderstorms
along the front by early-mid evening. This will occur as the RAP
is showing a 35 kt low level jet intersecting the front. Given the
amount of shear/instability available in addition to the
700-500mb lapse rates in the 7-8C/km range, expect the primary
threat to be large hail, with damaging winds and a tornado or two
also possible in the vicinity of the front. These storms will
spread across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
overnight before chances decrease by 12Z as the low level jet
veers. A few storms tonight may also produce locally heavy
rainfall, particularly where any storms can train.

Focus then switches to tomorrow when an upper low moves across the
Plains which will bring large scale ascent to Missouri and
Illinois during the afternoon and early evening. It will also
cause an attendant front to move east across the CWA during the
late afternoon and evening. Forecast MLCAPES ahead of the front
will be around 2000 J/kg with deep layer shear around 80kts which
be favorable for supercells. Greatest threat will be over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois which will be closest
to the retreating warm front and CAMS is showing the most
discrete cells, particularly given the orientation of the deep shear
vector to the front. Will continue to message all severe hazards
tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

Will continue to mention that straight line wind gusts outside of
thunderstorms will be in the 35-45 mph range given the tight
pressure gradient associated with the deep surface low that will
move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Winds will continue
to be breezy Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday night.
Expect the warm front to move north of the area on Saturday, so
with sun during the afternoon, still expect highs in the mid 70s-
low 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Sunday into Monday continues to look mainly dry as both the GEFS
and EPS show a upper ridge/surface high moving across the area.
The next chance for showers will be on Monday into Tuesday as a
upper trough moves out of the western CONUS and across Missouri
and Illinois.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
across the area this evening into the overnight hours. This
activity is expected to affect all of the terminals mid-late
evening, with showers persisting into the overnight hours. These
showers and storms will bring MVFR/possible IFR conditions with
possible hail and wind gusts over 35KTS.  Storms will move out of the
area after 12Z with low chances for showers and possible MVFR
conditions through 18Z. There will be another chance of
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will gust to 30KTS ahead of this front on Saturday afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Thunderstorms are expected to develop at or near the terminal by
01Z and persist through 06Z with lesser chances between 06-12Z.
The strongest storms may produce hail and wind gusts in excess of
35KTS. Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected tomorrow
morning, though there is another chance of thunderstorms after 21Z
on Saturday. Wind gusts will be near 30KTS on Saturday afternoon.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected after 00Z.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-282030-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
328 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely across tonight, mainly across parts of
central, east central, and northeast Missouri as well as west central
and southwest Illinois. A few severe storms of these storms could be
severe with the main threat being large hail, with damaging winds and
a tornado or two also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon into the early evening
with the greatest threat across northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. These storms may contain very large hail, tornadoes, and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Spotters are encouraged to
report any severe weather, if observed, to the National Weather
Service.

Britt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             1 NE JEFFERSON CITY     38.58N 92.18W
03/27/2020  M3.00 INCH       COLE               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE DENTS IN VEHICLES, WINDSHIELDS
            BUSTED OUT.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1056 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     HAIL             2 W HOLTS SUMMIT        38.64N 92.16W
03/27/2020  M1.75 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1058 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HAIL             2 NE GUTHRIE            38.78N 92.08W
03/27/2020  E0.50 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.) TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1108 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             4 WNW JEFFERSON CITY    38.58N 92.26W
03/27/2020  E1.50 INCH       COLE               MO   PUBLIC

            LARGEST HAIL WAS 1.5 INCHES, TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N 92.19W
03/27/2020  M2.50 INCH       COLE               MO   PUBLIC

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1117 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             CHAMOIS                 38.67N 91.77W
03/27/2020  M2.75 INCH       OSAGE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY