Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS St. Louis, MO

443 
WWUS53 KLSX 192257
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
557 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

MOC027-051-151-192307-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-200719T2300Z/
Cole MO-Callaway MO-Osage MO-
557 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COLE...SOUTHWESTERN CALLAWAY
AND WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
St Louis.

LAT...LON 3863 9242 3867 9229 3865 9226 3865 9222
      3869 9222 3872 9211 3863 9195 3841 9195
      3845 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 235DEG 5KT 3858 9212 

$$

TES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Cold front has now moved to near Springfield Illinois to Columbia
line. Satellite imagery is showing a well developed CU field
along and south of this front in an area where the SPC
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPES of 2500-3500+ J/kg with little CINH.
The HRRR has been consistent in developing thunderstorms along the
front between 21-23Z, so kept likely PoPs for late this afternoon
into this evening. There remains the possibility of one or two
severe thunderstorms given the amount of instability, with a wet
microburst and hail up to the size of quarters being the main
concerns.

Thunderstorms will continue through at least mid evening before they
begin to weaken with the loss of daytime heating and passage of weak
mid level vort max that is currently over eastern Kansas. Then
focus for convection will shift for additional storms developing
across western Missouri later tonight as a broad 25kt low level
jet sets up. These storms will move east into the CWA tomorrow
morning as the jet veers to the northeast. There will be some
threat for locally heavy rainfall given the PWATS around 2" and
deep warm cloud layers, particularly if any storms train.
Additional storm development is possible tomorrow afternoon along
the front in the unstable atmosphere. On late Monday night, there
will be another weak shortwave move along the front as a low level
jet sets up bringing another MCS potential.

Even though it will be humid tomorrow, expect highs to be mainly in
the 80s tomorrow with the clouds and rain potential so will not
extend the heat advisory. Lows the next two nights will be around
70.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

There remains relatively good agreement between the EPS and GEFS
means Tuesday into this weekend. The front will still likely be
stalled across Missouri and Illinois Tuesday into Thursday. The
front will lie beneath zonal flow with several low amplitude
shortwave troughs moving through the region. CIPS severe analogs
suggest that there will at least some chance for severe weather
during this time period given the very unstable atmosphere on the
southern edge of the westerlies. In addition, still expect the
threat of MCSs in a high PWAT atmosphere which will bring the
threat for locally heavy rainfall. By Friday, the front will move
north of the area as both the ensembles are still showing a 594dm
high building over the central CONUS next weekend. Forecast
guidance by next weekend suggest highs will be in the mid 90s.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this afternoon along a
cold front that is moving south and will affect KCOU and the St.
Louis area terminals between 21-03Z. These storms will have the
potential to bring to cause MVFR/possible IFR visibilities or
ceilings in heavy rain and possible wind gusts over 35KTS. There
should be a lull in the showers and thunderstorms later this
evening into the overnight hours before there will before more
storms more into the area from the west after 12Z on Monday
morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this point.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
235 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
235 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening, particularly along an front
near Interstate 70. A few of them could become severe, with hail up
to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible late tonight across
parts of central Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of thunderstorms are now likely Monday through Wednesday as
the cold front stalls across the region. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight.

Britt