Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Chicago, IL

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
1144 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-241645-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
1144 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 /1244 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Significant Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Significant Tornado risk.
     Elevated hail risk...up to ping pong ball size.
     Limited damaging wind risk...up to 60 mph.
  Limited Flooding Risk.

DISCUSSION...

A strong disturbance and an unstable air mass will yield a risk
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The
most intense thunderstorms will be capable of producing large
hail and potentially isolated very large hail. In addition, a
few to several tornadoes are possible. The most favored portion
of the area looks to be generally along and northwest of the
Interstate 55 corridor, though severe thunderstorms are
possible area wide.

The favored time range for the severe threat is approximately 200
PM to 800 PM CDT. Furthermore, given the wet conditions of late
and elevated river levels, very heavy downpours from thunderstorms
will be capable of producing isolated to instances of flash
flooding, along with renewed river and stream rises. After the
primary severe and flooding threat ends, the potential exists for
thunderstorms to focus east of I-57 into the early overnight,
which could prolong the flooding risk for those areas, especially
in northwest Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Sunday through Tuesday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Wednesday...
  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday and Friday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION:

There will be daily scattered thunderstorm chances amidst very
warm and humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday, with possibly
higher coverage of thunderstorms by mid week. Any thunderstorms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours and possibly an
isolated flooding risk. Thunderstorm chances may be limited to
areas south of I-80 or south of there by Thursday and especially
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotters will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

  Moving toward the east northeast at 35 mph.

LMZ740>745-241645-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
1144 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Significant Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Elevated Waterspout Risk.
     Elevated hail risk...up to ping pong ball size.
     Limited thunderstorm wind gust risk...up to 40 kt.
  Elevated Fog Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Sunday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Fog Risk.
Monday and Tuesday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Wednesday...
  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday and Friday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

KJB

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