Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

With no real change in the stagnant air mass sitting over our
region, we can expect another warm and muggy night tonight. While
the majority of the afternoon convection will dwindle with the
setting of the sun, remaining instability, numerous left-over
boundaries, plenty of moisture, and a possible slight uptick in
850mb winds suggest holding on to a small chance of storms through
the night. This is supported by RAP and NAM guidance.

Tomorrow we'll once again see scattered afternoon storms in the
humid, unstable atmosphere. The strongest instability should be west
of I-65, but all areas are fair game for convection. There will be
very little shear once again. A cold front will approach from the
west late in the day, but its influence should hold off until after
the short term.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

The long term is going to see some change in overall flow as an
upper trough begins stretching from Iowa southeast towards North
Carolina. This will cover the Ohio Valley, but major changes won't
be felt at the ground. Highs in the 90s with chances for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain.

On Friday, a quick moving cold front will move through central
Kentucky. This feature is extending from a low pressure system over
the Great Lakes, but due to the timing of the front, believe chances
of thunderstorms will increase from western Kentucky earlier in the
day to eastern Kentucky later in the day. Following the front, high
pressure will fill in over the area. Believe this will keep things
mostly dry on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave embedded in the northwest
flow will strengthen a surface low over northern Indiana and drag a
cold front through the Lower Ohio Valley. Expect this to elevate
chances for thunderstorms to move across region during the day.

Monday, surface high pressure behind the front will help to lower
rain chances and precede a surging upper ridge that continues moving
eastward for the next couple of days. Currently, it looks like this
ridge and high pressure at the surface could hold on through at
least the end of next week. This would drive conditions drier and
warmer.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

No significant changes in the air mass so no significant changes in
the forecast for this TAF package. Another hot and muggy afternoon
today with scattered storms. Coverage will be a little better today
than yesterday but many locations will still stay dry. Spots that do
receive a storm may experience gusty winds and very heavy downpours.
Also bear in mind that gusty winds will extend outward from the main
cell on radar.

Tonight will be muggy and still. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible, similar to last night, but coverage and confidence are too
low for anything in the TAFs at this point. Went with persistence
for the early morning visibility forecast.

Another hot and muggy day tomorrow with scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...13
Long Term...KDW
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
334 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 /234 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this evening, with
isolated storms possible overnight. Storms will be capable of
frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. The strongest
storms may produce localized flash flooding and isolated instances of
damaging wind. A few instances of hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Thursday, with a better
storm chance Friday as weak low pressure affects the lower Ohio
Valley. Another weather system will cause another round of scattered
thunderstorms on Sunday. Expect heavy rainfall that could lead to
localized flooding, as well as brief strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning.

Maximum heat indices will reach around 100 for many locations
Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding or wind damage
to the National Weather Service throughout the week.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ077-078-081945-
Washington-Scott-
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 308 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Scottsburg and was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsburg, Austin, Little York and Leota.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3876 8576 3863 8583 3868 8609 3878 8607
      3876 8603 3877 8602 3876 8601 3877 8598
      3875 8598 3876 8596 3875 8595 3876 8594
      3875 8592 3875 8590 3873 8589 3873 8588
      3874 8584 3879 8581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 197DEG 7KT 3873 8595

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

KYZ070-081930-
Logan-
211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY...

At 211 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dunmor and was
nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lewisburg, Cooperstown, Insco, Lost City, Agnes, Spa, Jerico,
Edwards, Epleys and Diamond Springs.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8698 3707 8694 3702 8680
      3691 8689 3696 8705 3703 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 197DEG 7KT 3701 8696

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TASWELL                 38.34N 86.56W
07/08/2020                   CRAWFORD           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEXINGTON           38.06N 84.51W
07/08/2020                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES AND PARKED VEHICLE
            ON WHITNEY AVE.

&&

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ083-082000-
Dubois-
324 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DUBOIS COUNTY...

At 324 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Jasper, moving
south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Saint Marks, Huntingburg Airport,
Saint Anthony, Bretzville, Maltersville, Saint Henry and Johnsburg.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3821 8701 3837 8697 3835 8678 3820 8684
      3820 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 217DEG 11KT 3830 8693

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ089-KYZ024-025-082000-
Perry-Meade-Breckinridge-
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PERRY...WEST
CENTRAL MEADE AND NORTH CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES...

At 330 PM EDT/230 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles
west of Brandenburg and nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sirocco, Concordia, Lodale, Mooleyville, Raymond, Frymire, Derby,
Manning Crossing, Payneville and Rhodelia.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3806 8657 3809 8646 3805 8631 3803 8622
      3802 8621 3795 8624 3793 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 217DEG 11KT 3800 8633

DM