Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
511 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)...

Large, potent and slow moving mid/upper trough and associated cold
front will move east through the central Gulf coast region tonight
and Thursday. Sufficient instability and shear will remain in
place to support both strong to severe thunderstorms and very
heavy rainfall due to high precipitable water content that remains
in place. One impulse in the broad southwest flow aloft appears to
be moving through the northern/eastern portion of the forecast
area late this afternoon, and additional, hard to time
disturbances will continue to move northeast through the region
tonight and in areas closer to the coast and east of our area on
Thursday. Regardless of any individual disturbances, the large
scale lifting from the right entrance region of the upper jet that
shifts from west to east across the region tonight and Thursday
morning will cause the low level wind response and help ignite
areas of deep convection. Seriously considered expanded the Flash
Flood Watch into more of the forecast area, but decided to hold
off given the lull in activity that is occurring late this
afternoon.

Surface to near surface based storms will occur in advance of the
cold front tonight and Thursday morning, then additional showers
and some elevated thunderstorms will continue on the cool side of
the cold front late tonight into Thursday before rain diminishes
from the west and northwest on Thursday. Much cooler/colder air
will then move into the region as surface high pressure builds.
Lows Thursday night are expected to remain above freezing under
clearing skies, but in the mid to upper 30s across most areas
except the immediate southeast Louisiana coastal areas that should
remain in the lower 40s.

High pressure will continue to dominate with clear or mostly
clear/sunny skies expected Friday through Saturday. Friday will be
a bit below normal for temperatures, but then warmer than normal
temperatures will quickly return for Saturday and beyond as more
zonal (west to east) flow sets up over the U.S. A weak shortwave
trough may brush the area Saturday, so have some low rain chances
back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...

Broad southwest flow will set up again over Mexico and the
southern U.S. Sunday into early next week as a large upper
low/trough develops near the west coast and a mid/upper high/ridge
extends from the Atlantic to the east Gulf of Mexico. There should
be a lull in any rain in the forecast Saturday night into Sunday,
then rain chances increase again Sunday night into Monday and
remain in the forecast through Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to be mild to warm through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Conditions should trend from MVFR currently back down to
IFR to LIFR again tonight into Thursday morning. SHRA/TSRA will
continue to bring much lower VSBY and lower CIGS at times through
the forecast period, except for an evening lull at many airports.
Southerly winds will also remain moderate with gusts near 20
knots or higher at times through tonight before the cold front
shifts the winds to west to northwest during the 06z-15z time
period.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through Thursday as
the next strong cold front moves near and through the coastal
waters. This front should move through Thursday morning. Strong
northwest winds of 25 to 35 kt with higher gusts are expected
behind the front for much of Thu night and a Gale Watch remains in
effect for that time frame. Winds will ease back to west to
southwest at around 10 knots or less Friday afternoon and
southerly around 10 knots or less on Saturday. A tighter pressure
gradient between high pressure moving east and lower pressure to
the west will result in southeast winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday
night into Sunday and possibly up to 15 to 20 knots Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  57  35  57 /  90  60   0   0
BTR  50  53  35  60 /  90  60   0   0
ASD  54  60  36  58 / 100  80  10   0
MSY  55  58  39  59 / 100  80  10   0
GPT  57  62  38  56 / 100  90  10   0
PQL  58  65  36  58 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ530-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ080>082.

GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ534.

&&

TD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1122 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ036-037-048-050-071-060545-
Livingston-St. Helena-Northern Tangipahoa-East Feliciana-East Baton
Rouge-
1122 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ST. HELENA...NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON...EAST CENTRAL EAST FELICIANA...WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA
AND NORTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 1122 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Livingston, or
10 miles northeast of Denham Springs, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Denham Springs, Greensburg, Amite, Walker, Amite City, Livingston,
Roseland, Montpelier, Watson, Darlington and Greenwell Spring.

LAT...LON 3069 9035 3069 9036 3065 9057 3057 9057
      3037 9083 3051 9105 3095 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 220DEG 55KT 3057 9081

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1137 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ046-048>050-060615-
Iberville-Livingston-Ascension-East Baton Rouge-
1137 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION...WEST
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL EAST
BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 1137 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over St. Gabriel,
or near Oak Hills Place, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Denham Springs, Oak Hills Place, St. Gabriel, Walker,
French Settlement, Port Vincent, Old Jefferson, Geismar, Inniswold,
Prairieville, Village St. George, Shenandoah, Carville, Westminster
and Gardere.

LAT...LON 3055 9096 3040 9074 3015 9105 3026 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 219DEG 54KT 3027 9107