Gale Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION...

KGPT currently at VLIFR with sea fog, and likely to remain there
until front arrives. Remaining terminals range from IFR to MVFR
ceilings outside of convection. At 05Z, cold front has moved
through KMCB and KBTR, but there is elevated convection behind the
front affecting both terminals. Front will take the remainder of
the night to traverse the remaining terminals. With convective
coverage currently increasing, cannot remove thunder from any
terminal at this time. After 12z, threat of TSRA should diminish. Not
seeing much in the way of wind gusts at this time, but with 50
knot winds below FL030 on the 00z LIX sounding, several sites will
carry LLWS for the next few hours. Expect only slow improvement
to MVFR during the morning, then VFR beyond 07/00z. Do anticipate
25-30 knot gusts behind the front at KNEW and KMSY later in the
morning. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)...

Large, potent and slow moving mid/upper trough and associated cold
front will move east through the central Gulf coast region tonight
and Thursday. Sufficient instability and shear will remain in
place to support both strong to severe thunderstorms and very
heavy rainfall due to high precipitable water content that remains
in place. One impulse in the broad southwest flow aloft appears to
be moving through the northern/eastern portion of the forecast
area late this afternoon, and additional, hard to time
disturbances will continue to move northeast through the region
tonight and in areas closer to the coast and east of our area on
Thursday. Regardless of any individual disturbances, the large
scale lifting from the right entrance region of the upper jet that
shifts from west to east across the region tonight and Thursday
morning will cause the low level wind response and help ignite
areas of deep convection. Seriously considered expanded the Flash
Flood Watch into more of the forecast area, but decided to hold
off given the lull in activity that is occurring late this
afternoon.

Surface to near surface based storms will occur in advance of the
cold front tonight and Thursday morning, then additional showers
and some elevated thunderstorms will continue on the cool side of
the cold front late tonight into Thursday before rain diminishes
from the west and northwest on Thursday. Much cooler/colder air
will then move into the region as surface high pressure builds.
Lows Thursday night are expected to remain above freezing under
clearing skies, but in the mid to upper 30s across most areas
except the immediate southeast Louisiana coastal areas that should
remain in the lower 40s.

High pressure will continue to dominate with clear or mostly
clear/sunny skies expected Friday through Saturday. Friday will be
a bit below normal for temperatures, but then warmer than normal
temperatures will quickly return for Saturday and beyond as more
zonal (west to east) flow sets up over the U.S. A weak shortwave
trough may brush the area Saturday, so have some low rain chances
back in the forecast.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...

Broad southwest flow will set up again over Mexico and the
southern U.S. Sunday into early next week as a large upper
low/trough develops near the west coast and a mid/upper high/ridge
extends from the Atlantic to the east Gulf of Mexico. There should
be a lull in any rain in the forecast Saturday night into Sunday,
then rain chances increase again Sunday night into Monday and
remain in the forecast through Wednesday. Temperatures are
expected to be mild to warm through the period.

AVIATION...

Conditions should trend from MVFR currently back down to
IFR to LIFR again tonight into Thursday morning. SHRA/TSRA will
continue to bring much lower VSBY and lower CIGS at times through
the forecast period, except for an evening lull at many airports.
Southerly winds will also remain moderate with gusts near 20
knots or higher at times through tonight before the cold front
shifts the winds to west to northwest during the 06z-15z time
period.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through Thursday as
the next strong cold front moves near and through the coastal
waters. This front should move through Thursday morning. Strong
northwest winds of 25 to 35 kt with higher gusts are expected
behind the front for much of Thu night and a Gale Watch remains in
effect for that time frame. Winds will ease back to west to
southwest at around 10 knots or less Friday afternoon and
southerly around 10 knots or less on Saturday. A tighter pressure
gradient between high pressure moving east and lower pressure to
the west will result in southeast winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday
night into Sunday and possibly up to 15 to 20 knots Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  57  35  57 /  90  60   0   0
BTR  50  53  35  60 /  90  60   0   0
ASD  54  60  36  58 / 100  80  10   0
MSY  55  58  39  59 / 100  80  10   0
GPT  57  62  38  56 / 100  90  10   0
PQL  58  65  36  58 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ530-534.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ080>082.

GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ534.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1158 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             2 NNW PRAIRIEVILLE      30.33N 90.98W
02/05/2020  E1.00 INCH       ASCENSION          LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON JEFFERSON HIGHWAY NORTH OF
            PRAIRIEVILLE.

&&

MEFFERSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             WALKER                  30.48N 90.87W
02/06/2020  E1.00 INCH       LIVINGSTON         LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WALKER, LA

&&

MEFFERSO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

LAZ039-MSZ070-071-077-060645-
Washington-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
1217 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WASHINGTON PARISH...
WALTHALL...SOUTHEASTERN PIKE AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 1217 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mount Herman,
or 8 miles northwest of Franklinton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklinton, Tylertown, Varnado, Dexter, Mount Herman and Angie.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3118 9003 3117 9000 3113 9000 3113 8994
      3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8983 3100 8968
      3095 8966 3076 9024 3110 9034 3122 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 240DEG 48KT 3096 9021

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 AM CST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     HAIL             3 ESE DENHAM SPRINGS    30.47N 90.92W
02/05/2020  E1.00 INCH       LIVINGSTON         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR JUBAN ROAD.

&&

CBANNAN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
101 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

MSZ068-069-060730-
Wilkinson-Amite-
101 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WILKINSON AND
NORTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES...

At 101 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Woodville, or
17 miles north of Jackson, moving northeast at 70 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Gloster and Crosby.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3135 9121 3134 9115 3132 9112 3134 9106
      3133 9106 3133 9103 3135 9102 3133 9099
      3135 9098 3135 9088 3130 9076 3101 9123
      3110 9139 3137 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 221DEG 63KT 3109 9127