Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

High cloudiness moving across western Nebraska, with isolated storms
beginning to develop to our west. A weak frontal boundary was
analyzed from near Valentine through Mullen then back southwest
through Sidney and then west to near Lander, WY. A dryline extended
south from near Merriman through Ogallala and Wray, CO. Rich
dewpoints from 65 to 70 east of this dryline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

An organized severe weather event expected this evening. A
disturbance currently moving across sctrl WY and nctrl CO will
move eastward this evening within fairly strong 500mb winds near
45KT and 0-6km shear from 40-50KT. A storms initiate to our west
this afternoon, steep boundary-layer lapse rates and intense
vertical mixing will produce areas of DCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. A
surface dryline from near Ogallala to Mullen will separate MLCAPE
increasing from around 1000-1500 J/kg to the west and much higher
from 2000- 4000 J/kg to the east.

After initial discrete to semi-discrete storm develop early
evening, convection should organize upscale in association with
developing outflows. One or more clusters of resulting cold-pool-
driven thunderstorm cluster is likely and should accelerate
eastward into richer low-level moisture. as has been the case with
other supercells or thunderstorm clusters this past week, an
organized severe wind threat is expected mid to late evening
within surging segments and bowing clusters supportive of 80+ mph
gusts. Significant large hail 2"+ is also possible, especially
with discrete storms initially. An isolated tornado is also
possible within the moisture rich environment across the south
and east.

The most intense storms should quickly move east of the area by 06Z
with chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight behind an
advancing cold front. Showers chances linger Tuesday morning mainly
north of Highway 2. Much cooler behind the front with considerable
stratus and stratocumulus persisting into the afternoon. HIghs were
lowered a few degrees from near 70 northeast to near 75 southwest
with a breezy northeast wind 15 to 25 mph.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday night as an
h500 trough moves into the area. Given the post frontal airmass,
showers and thunderstorms will be elevated and only general
thunderstorms are predicted.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Chances for showers Wednesday morning as a mid-level disturbance
moves to the southeast of the area. Looks dry in the afternoon with
increased sunshine and warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A warm front lifts north Wednesday night as a weak disturbance moves
eastward overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the
best chances over Cherry County. No strong storms are expected as
the better wind shear and instability will be across eastern CO
and Kansas.

A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern Plains
into the sern U.S. this week. The models are in very good agreement
warming 850mb temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska to
around 30C by Friday and Saturday followed by a cooldown Sunday
and Monday. The GFS and ECM show this ridge tapping subtropical
moisture north into Nebraska by this weekend.

The very warm temperatures aloft are generating a dry forecast
Friday and Saturday with highs in the 90s to near 100. Thunderstorm
chances Thursday associated with warm air advection, steepening
lapse rates and a disturbance aloft. a few of the storms could be
strong. Thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday associated
with deepening moisture and a weakening cap. Given the subtropical
moisture increase shown by the ECM and GFS, thunderstorms could
contain heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday. A front is forecast to
drop south on Sunday, and given the high instability, isolated
strong or severe storm development would still be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact both sites tonight.
KLBF has a better chance to see thunderstorms, possibly severe, with
large hail and damaging winds. Both sites will likely see heavy
rainfall reducing visibilities. Overcast skies continue into Tuesday
with rain showers expected on and off throughout the day. Severe
weather is not anticipated on Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 /300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

The combination of intense heating and a relatively moist airmass
will provide the fuel needed for severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. A cold front and a surface trough will
provide the focus with storm development to the west. The storms
look to move east off the higher terrain into southwest and west
central Nebraska late this afternoon. The activity is expected to
be severe with very large hail, heavy rainfall and extreme wind
gusts being the primary threats. Though the potential is low, an
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The thunderstorms are
expected to track east, possibly into north central Nebraska
late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Daily thunderstorm chances exist for Tuesday through Sunday. At
this time the threat for severe weather through this timeframe is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
914 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND GST     MAXWELL                 41.08N 100.53W
07/13/2020  M60 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   STORM CHASER

&&

NMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
917 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 N CURTIS              40.76N 100.49W
07/13/2020  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CBROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NEZ005-008-009-140330-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Rock NE-
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHERRY...NORTHWESTERN
ROCK AND CENTRAL BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 932 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Johnstown, or 14 miles southwest of Ainsworth, moving
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Bassett, Long Pine, Hofeld Lake, Jones Lake and Moon Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 164 and 198.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 236 and 259.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4233 10016 4251 10020 4267 9955 4230 9950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 262DEG 24KT 4243 10009

Buttler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
945 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRADY                   41.02N 100.37W
07/13/2020  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SMELTZER

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