Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Radar is filling up with rain and showers a bit slower than the
model based forecast suggested. So slowed things up a bit.

Added 5 mph to the gusts using the HRRR model. Wind gusts should
pick up across Custer county this afternoon where an area of
deeper mixing will occur. Farther west, the HRRR indicates lower
wind gusts. This is a result of rain and cooler temperatures
causing less mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Near term concerns revolve around the continuing potential for heavy
rain and significant winds ongoing or expected to develop later this
morning. Satellite analysis depicts a strong shortwave trough
centered over the central Rockies with the remnants of TC Cristobal
moving up into the middle Mississippi Valley. Morning rain and
thunderstorms are being driven by strong frontogenesis as a strong
cool front surges south and east across much of the area. Some
elevated instability remains with SPC Mesoanalysis depicting upwards
of 1000 j/kg MUCAPE across the area. This is expected to diminish
through the day as CAA depletes lapse rates aloft and drier air
works in. Fgen will gradually shift east through the day and weaken
as the front pushes further south and east and WAA focuses further
south. A strong cyclone will develop across Kansas thanks in part to
a modest coupled-jet setup. This will allow mass fields to increase
in response to the deepening system and lead to a deformation area
setting up across the area. A break from the precipitation appears
likely through late morning across much of the area before the
aforementioned deformation band sets up and allows the regeneration
of rain and a few thunderstorms across the area. Latest trends have
been to shift the focus of this further south and east of the area.
As such, have decreased PoPs slightly during the afternoon and
evening hours. The system will continue to track east through the
late afternoon and evening, dragging with it the last of the
precipitation, which should clear the area by early Wednesday
morning. With respect to the winds today...the surface boundary
moving through is fairly strong...with pressure rises approaching 6
hPa/hour south of Highway 2...and this will help generate a strong
pressure gradient from north to south. Given progression of the
front and already seeing reports of gusts approaching 50 knots
across the NE Panhandle into southwest Nebraska, made the decision
to bump up the start time of the High Wind Warning to 08z as well as
expand to include Garden through Custer Counties. Held off on
including Grant through Wheeler Counties given later arrival of
winds as well as further displacement from greater pressure rises
and core of h85 jet max. Will need to monitor through day for any
additional expansions. Winds should begin to decrease during the
evening hours as the system moves further east and begins to fill
in. Thinking wind gusts will climb to 50+ for most locations with
the exception of for the far northwest Sandhills, but 60 mph and
higher gusts are likely to remain generally along and south of
Highway 92. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we've
been seeing lately and feel like a Fall day when combined with the
expected winds. Highs will range from the low 50s to low
60s...nearly 25 degrees below normal in spots. Lows Tuesday night
will be chilly, falling into the low 40s across the west to low 50s
in the east thanks to the dry Canadian airmass working in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Beginning 12z Wednesday. The period begins with broad northwest flow
aloft as mid-level heights rise behind the departing system. The
last of the precipitation will have exited the area. Modest ridging
will develop across the Great Basin with surface high pressure in
place to the west. Generally tranquil weather is expected over the
following few days with a strengthening ridge across the southern
Plains. This will allow warmer temperatures to work their way back
in with h85 temperatures returning to the mid-teens by Wednesday and
the 20s by Thursday. This will translate to a relatively cool day on
Wednesday but right back to above-normal temperatures for Thursday
through the weekend. Given ridging continues to build in through at
least Saturday, thinking chances for precipitation are pretty
insignificant if not non-existent through that time. Ridge axis will
begin to shift east of the area by Sunday. Subtle timing differences
on this feature between the ECMWF and GFS also mean different timing
on return for precipitation chances. GFS is quicker...likely owing
to a strong mid-level disturbance upstream and thus develops a
stronger low-level jet Saturday evening. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
slower with the troughing in the west...likely due to interaction
with a smaller disturbance moving onshore California and thus keeps
Saturday dry. Will meet in the middle and keep Slight Chance PoPs in
place across the western zones. Beyond that, precipitation chances
will be on the increase as both models...to varying
strengths...advertise a strong disturbance tracking along the
Canadian border. This will drop another cool front into the area in
the Sunday/Monday timeframe with rain and thunderstorm chances, but
increasing uncertainty beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Models are in fair agreement with variable cloud heights across
the area this afternoon through 10/00Z. As the upper low/trough
moves east of the Plains clouds will lift and precip ending
before midnight CT. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
remain possible that will bring brief reduced visibility and
lowered ceilings. Wind shear will remain problemmatic through 05Z
with high winds diminishing across the southwest and west central
beyond 03Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ022-035>038-056>059-069>071.

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ006>010-026>028-
038.

&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...Jurgensen
LONG TERM...Jurgensen
AVIATION...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1053 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-101600-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1053 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 /953 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for west central and southwest
Nebraska through 9 pm CDT / 8 pm MDT this evening. North winds at
30 to 40 mph and gusts to 60 mph are forecast. Refer to the latest
warning statement for full details.

General thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening
across most of the area. A marginal risk for severe storms extends
across the southeast portions of Wheeler and Custer counties.
Hail and strong winds will be the main threats with these
thunderstorms.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 pm CDT for portions of
north central Nebraska. An additional 1 to 2 inches are possible
that could lead to additional flood impacts. Refer to the latest
flood statement for full details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

If storm hazards or impacts are observered forward details to the
office.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STAPLETON               41.48N 100.51W
06/09/2020  M3.86 INCH       LOGAN              NE   MESONET

            24HR RAINFALL STATION EW7579

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HALSEY                  41.90N 100.27W
06/09/2020  M3.39 INCH       THOMAS             NE   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            BESSEY RAWS

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HEAVY RAIN       14 NNE BROWNLEE         42.48N 100.52W
06/09/2020  M1.42 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            RAWS 24 HR TOTAL VRFN1

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
108 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W MAXWELL             41.08N 100.54W
06/09/2020                   LINCOLN            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 80

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
113 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NW PAXTON             41.20N 101.44W
06/09/2020                   KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH IN DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

CBROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
121 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

NEZ010-091900-
Holt NE-
121 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

At 120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chambers, or 20 miles southwest of O'neill, moving north at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
O'Neill, Chambers and Emmet.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 294 and 310.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 169 and 197.

LAT...LON 4210 9869 4212 9893 4268 9890 4265 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 186DEG 31KT 4219 9880

CDC