Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
718 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

The HRRR and NAMdng model wind gust products both show high wind
criteria Tuesday. The NAM indicates winds of 65kts at h800mb, the
top of the mix layer as indicated in Bufkit. These strong winds are
emanating from strong Pacific high pressure building through the
Rockies in the wake of 995mb low pressure across KS. The wind
forecast uses the guidance blend and a High Wind Warning is in place
across swrn Nebraska beginning early Tuesday morning and ending
Tuesday evening.

The POP and temperature forecast uses the short term model blend.
High temperatures Tuesday came in with upper 50s to lower 60s. These
are near record low highs and North Platte could tie or break the
previous record of 58 set in 1895.

There is little change in the POP forecast tonight through Tuesday
except that the storm system is slower and producing a prolonged
period of warp-around rain Tuesday associated with an inverted
h700mb trof across Nebraska, deformation and mid level
frontogenesis. Postfrontal elevated thunderstorms are in the
forecast along the h700mb warm air advection zone.

Severe storm development late this afternoon and this evening
revolves around storms firing on a sfc front draped across ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon. MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/KG and 45-50kt winds
at h500mb will fuel the expected development of supercells. The RAP
model indicates moderate CAPE and shear with no cap by 22z. The RAP
also indicates a zone of very strong sfc warm air advection
developing across wrn KS this afternoon, aimed at ncntl Nebraska.
This warm air advection should continue throughout the evening hours
as a triple point forms near Goodland KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Dry weather is in place Wednesday through Monday with just an
isolated thunderstorm chance Saturday night through Monday. The
anomalous storm system affecting Nebraska tonight and Tuesday will
phase with Tropical Depression Cristobal and be located across the
Great Lakes Wednesday. Pacific high pressure will build through
Nebraska Wednesday and Thursday. The Great Lakes storm will deepen
to around 983 mb and pull a batch of Canadian high pressure south
through the Midwest Friday and beyond. This will present little
opportunity for return moisture across Nebraska until Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Thunderstorms ongoing this evening from near KLBF northeast to
near and east of KANW. Some of these storms will be severe and
contain large hail, damaging winds, with an isolated tornado
possible. An advancing cold front will also bring northerly winds
up to 45 kts after 09Z and continuing through the day Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring this evening, which will cause
reductions in visibility at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

The short term model blend, the NAM, HRRR and RAP models continue
to advertise very heavy rainfall this evening associated with the
formation of a closed h700mb low across KS and a slow moving cold
front across Nebraska. Rain and elevated thunderstorms will
continue Tuesday as this upper low moves slowly east through KS.
The rain should end late Tuesday evening. These models all suggest
a heavy rain center will occur somewhere across ncntl Nebraska
tonight with 4 or more inches by Tuesday morning.

The Flood Watch for Custer county has been expanded north to include
most of north central Nebraska east of highway 83. WPC has been
suggesting high precipitable water, rainfall efficiency, training,
back-building and continued moisture flux for a few forecast cycles
across this area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ056>059-069>071.

Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ006>010-026>028-038.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 /236 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of southwest and north central Nebraska this evening.
Storms are expected to produce large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Repeating thunderstorms this evening could produce 1 to 2 inches
of rainfall over the same location which will lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue Tuesday with
localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
823 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TORNADO          8 W MERNA               41.48N 99.92W
06/08/2020                   CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
825 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARNOLD                  41.42N 100.19W
06/08/2020                   CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            1 FOOT OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 47 IN ARNOLD.

&&

SMELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
832 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             5 SW ATKINSON           42.48N 99.05W
06/08/2020  E1.75 INCH       HOLT               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CBROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
837 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ007-010-090200-
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
837 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT AND
NORTHWESTERN BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Naper, or 18 miles west of Spencer, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butte, Naper and Anoka.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 88 and 113.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4285 9890 4287 9923 4300 9923 4300 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 212DEG 28KT 4295 9905

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             22 NNE BREWSTER         42.21N 99.65W
06/08/2020  E1.50 INCH       ROCK               NE   PUBLIC

&&

SMELTZER

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