Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS North Platte, NE

225 
WWUS53 KLBF 110205
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
905 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEC031-110245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200711T0245Z/
Cherry NE-
905 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM
CDT/845 PM MDT/ FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

At 903 PM CDT/803 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from near Cody to 7 miles southwest of Medicine Lake,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Kilgore, Nenzel, Medicine Lake, Merritt Reservoir, Crookston, 
Speckel Meir Lake, Eli, Anderson Bridge, Indian Hill, Steer Creek 
Campground, Morgan Lake, Schoolhouse Lake and Round Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 142 and 191.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 180 and 222.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 87 and 136.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 175 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4235 10042 4227 10195 4274 10204 4300 10139
      4300 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 313DEG 31KT 4299 10120 4264 10152 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

CDC

920 
WWUS53 KLBF 110219
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
919 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEC031-110245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200711T0245Z/
Cherry NE-
919 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM
CDT/845 PM MDT/ FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

At 918 PM CDT/818 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from near Kilgore to 10 miles southeast of Medicine
Lake, moving southeast at 35 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Kilgore, Nenzel, Medicine Lake, Merritt Reservoir, Crookston, 
Speckel Meir Lake, Steer Creek Campground, Morgan Lake, Schoolhouse 
Lake, Anderson Bridge, Round Lake, Schlagel Creek and Indian Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 160 and 191.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 180 and 211.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 87 and 136.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 175 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4235 10042 4227 10195 4261 10201 4300 10111
      4300 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 312DEG 31KT 4292 10102 4259 10135 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

CDC

812 
WWUS53 KLBF 110231
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
931 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEC031-110245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200711T0245Z/
Cherry NE-
931 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM
CDT/845 PM MDT/ FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

At 931 PM CDT/831 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from 11 miles north of Merritt Reservoir to 17 miles
southeast of Medicine Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore, Medicine Lake, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, Merritt
Reservoir, Crookston, Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River,
Speckel Meir Lake, Highway 61 crossing the Snake River, Steer Creek
Campground, Morgan Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, Intersection of Highway 61
and Survey Valley Road, Anderson Bridge State Wildlife Management
Area, Round Lake, Schlagel Creek State Wildlife Management Area,
Highway 97 crossing the Niobrara River, Indian Hill, Highway 97
crossing Big Creek, Big Alkali Lake State Wildlife Management Area
and Highway 83 crossing Goose Creek.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 172 and 191.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 180 and 203.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 87 and 136.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 175 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4235 10042 4227 10195 4249 10199 4300 10084
      4300 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 310DEG 35KT 4279 10079 4251 10123 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
709 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The main forecast challenges over next few days include
thunderstorms (and severe potential) tonight and heat over the
weekend. A vigorous area of low pressure and associated fronts and
dryline, along with a mid-level shortwave, provide the focus for
convection through the night. As of 20z, several rounds of storms
traversed far northern Nebraska, resulting in wind damage and large
hail.

This evening and tonight... A rather complex scenario is unfolding
regarding thunderstorm potential. The lone supercell remaining (as
of 20z) is crossing from Blaine into Custer Counties. Visible
satellite indicates a cumulus field over much of southwest Neb, with
little change in height observed from the office. Cumulus does
appear to be growing more agitated along the dryline in the
panhandle, as well as stemming from the outflow boundary extending
west from the supercell. Short range guidance has been handling
today's event rather poorly with coverage and large discrepancies
still exist for possible initiation along the dryline. The 20z LBF
RAOB shows a midlevel capping inversion with MLCIN around -70 j/kg,
but MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg (and MUCAPE of 4000). Should convection
occur in the western Sandhills as suggested by some CAMS, the storms
should easily become severe per ample instability and more than
enough deep layer shear (50+ kts). Supercell will likely be the mode
of choice for any activity before sundown, with the most favorable
area from the panhandle into southwest Neb. The CAPE has a fat
profile, and telling from previous storms today, forming large hail
has not been an issue. These storms will also have a serious wind
threat, as shown by 1600+ DCAPE and a well mixed layer with 40+ kts
mid-level flow above that. However, further development is
conditional and confidence is somewhat low, depending on cap
strength. Best thinking is isolated storms at most that get carried
east rather quickly with steering current and then along the LLJ
nose if they still exist. More confidence exists with the second
wave of convection, or a potential MCS that rolls through north
central Nebraska after dark. The beginning of that setup is underway
north of the Black Hills, and most guidance suggests it crosses our
forecast area between 02-06z. At that time in north central Neb,
there should be enough instability to support continued severe
weather, although it's difficult to tell the effects from this
morning's activity. Dew points have held in the 60s up north with
the help of easterly surface flow. Shear definitely supports a QLCS
or some other organized form of convection with forecast values
pushing 60 kts. Also cannot rule out a tornado, either ahead of the
main line or with it. Low level shear is maximized in the far north,
but imagine LCL's lower through the evening and helicity to increase
near the cool front and ahead of the LLJ.

Saturday and Saturday night... Surface high pressure settles onto
the northern Plains while isentropic downglide and overall
subsidence resume over Nebraska. This sets up a blue sky day and a
light northerly breeze. Have tempered forecast highs a smidge,
mainly across the north. Very weak CAA is forecast at H85 with the
northerly flow, about 2 to 3C cooler than today. Forecast max temps
range from mid 80s north to lower 90s southwest. With light winds
and continued mostly clear skies, temps should fall to a seasonably
cool upper 50s at night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Sunday and beyond... The upper ridge stays parked over the southern
Plains while a low wiggles through the Prairie Provinces, placing
Nebraska in quasi-zonal flow. Temperatures over the next week will
be similar to last week with a couple days of hot weather (highs 90s
Sun, Mon, Thu) and some more moderate with highs in the 80s. After a
primarily dry weekend, precip chances reappear Monday as the next
surface low and associated fronts line up the High Plains. Scattered
storm chances exist nearly every day, but perhaps the best chance of
widespread activity (and possibly severe) comes Tuesday with the
cool front passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of north
central Nebraska through the evening and overnight hours. Limited
impacts to aviation conditions are expected, however, any
thunderstorm can create erratic and gusty winds as well as
reductions in visibility. Quieter weather returns for Saturday
morning as high pressure begins to build into the region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
422 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
422 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 /322 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of southwest
and central Nebraska through the evening. Any storm will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and torrential
rainfall.

Additional storms are expected after sunset, primarily across
north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and very heavy rain are the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Near daily thunderstorm chances exist Monday through Thursday,
with the best chance of widespread precipitation coming late
Tuesday. Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather and
rainfall reports to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
745 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             E GATES                 41.65N 99.64W
07/10/2020  U0.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ABOUT 5 MILES OF CORN WAS SHREDDED BY LARGE HAIL AND
            DAMAGING WINDS

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
746 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             ANSLEY                  41.29N 99.38W
07/10/2020  U1.75 INCH       CUSTER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SUBSTANTIAL CROP DAMAGE BETWEEN ANSLEY AND MASON CITY

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
835 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             5 NNW MERRIMAN          42.99N 101.73W
07/10/2020  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
839 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             5 NNW MERRIMAN          42.99N 101.74W
07/10/2020  E2.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
843 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             3 WSW ELI               42.92N 101.50W
07/10/2020  E2.50 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             NE MERRIMAN             42.92N 101.70W
07/10/2020  M2.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA TWITTER

&&

RKULIK