Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
113 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conds wl prevail until after 10Z and no additional TSRA is
expected. After 10Z TSRA activity is expected to move in vcty of
GLH and spread east to GWO by 12Z. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs are
possible until 15Z. VFR conds are expected after 15Z until TAF
sites become impacted by SHRA/TSRA activity through the aftn. TSRA
activity wl gradually dissipate after 00Z Tue. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

With convective precipitation winding down and the airmass over
the forecast area mostly overturned, it will be difficult to get
much renewed convection later tonight even with the approach of an
MCV, but there is enough forcing/moisture to require maintaining
TSRA chances through the near term. Overall, so significant
adjustments were necessary to the forecast other than blending in
the latest obs/guidance. The next challenge will be determining
how much airmass recovery can occur over northern/central portions
of the ArkLaMiss region for Monday for getting new storm
development. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Monday...

Activity may persist well into this evening, especially across
the Delta, as an MCV from a remnant convective complex near the
ArkLaTex continues eastward over the next several hours. HREF PMM
24 hour QPF suggests potential for a localized band of higher
rainfall totals from S AR into NW MS tonight. Though we won't
advertise a flash flood threat in the HWO given the area of
concern is mainly outside of our area, localized flash flooding
isn't out of the question in the Delta.

Any lingering convection should weaken overnight, with low clouds
developing across much of the area through mid-morning. Tonight, yet
another MCS will likely develop upstream across the Southern Plains
pushing eastward overnight. Though this complex will likely weaken
before reaching our area, its remnants may serve as a focusing
mechanism for renewed convection on Monday afternoon. Diurnal
heating will again lead to moderate to strong instability, with some
hints at stronger deep shear than exists today. While confidence is
low in specific timing and evolution, there are enough ingredients
in place to advertise another marginal risk for severe storms. We
should begin to get a better sense of how things will evolve later
on tonight. /DL/

Tomorrow night through Saturday...
Most of the region gets into a summer-like pattern with heat and
humidity...fueling the chances for periodic showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. An upper low parks just north
of the Great Lakes and weak ridging dominates the Plains. As a
result, flow into the region is split between a more
west/northwesterly pattern in the northern half of the Gulf
States...and a far weaker westerly pattern along the Coast. Weak
surface ridging just to the east sets up south/southwesterly winds
at the surface constantly reinforcing the warm and humid air in
place over the region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be
the rule, with mesoscale influences from convection steering the
short term weather and longevity of any convection into the
overnight hours. Models are having some issues with delineating
between diurnal convection, southerly extent of waves pivoting
around the upper trough, and what looks to be an almost feedback
signal. As a result, the forecast is dominated by chances for
precip at least daily through the end of the week. Given how much
south/southwesterly flow the pattern is signaling, the models are
not varying much in the thermal profile of the midlevels. Forecast
highs and lows are very close to seasonal normals, depending on
the extent of afternoon/early evening precip and cloud cover
limiting the max heat of day. Tuesday and Wednesday are the only
exceptions at this point, a couple degrees below normals due to
precip coverage. /HJS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  71  87  70 /  57  19  80  80
Meridian      92  71  88  69 /  64  17  78  77
Vicksburg     91  74  87  72 /  52  21  80  78
Hattiesburg   91  71  89  71 /  62  11  77  56
Natchez       88  71  86  70 /  61  11  80  72
Greenville    90  72  84  69 /  46  52  83  68
Greenwood     91  71  84  69 /  54  53  84  75

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/22/HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>038-
040>044-047>049-053-059-222045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Jefferson-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening and again on Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening
and again on Monday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern with these storms, but hail up to the size of quarters
will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are again possible on Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

LAZ026-MSZ031-039-045-046-050-051-054-060-222045-
Concordia-Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Copiah-
Adams-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi and Concordia Parish, Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MSZ052-055>058-061>066-072>074-222045-
Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
southeastern Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
421 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ARZ074-075-221000-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-
421 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHICOT AND ASHLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

At 421 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near West Crossett, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crossett around 425 AM CDT.
  North Crossett around 430 AM CDT.
  Old Milo around 440 AM CDT.
  Hamburg and Fountain Hill around 445 AM CDT.
  Snyder around 500 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Blanchton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9208 3324 9209 3325 9205 3328 9204
      3328 9200 3330 9200 3331 9198 3335 9199
      3335 9197 3338 9196 3339 9199 3339 9146
      3356 9145 3356 9142 3315 9143 3305 9210
      3321 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 246DEG 32KT 3320 9204

22