Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
714 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

An active weather pattern will continue to bring periods of
SHRA/TSRA activity accompanied by poor aviation conditions and
mainly diurnal in nature. Expect an increasing risk for late night
early morning MVFR stratus development. Otherwise, surface wind
should be mostly light and southerly. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...
Strong instability and residual boundaries from previous
convection have resulted in increasing coverage of convection this
afternoon. A few of these storms have already been rather robust.
Damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts are the primary threat
with these storms, though marginally severe hail cannot be ruled
out. Environmental shear is rather weak, so most of these storms
have been short lived, but if a composite outflow develops, one or
two clusters of storms may be able to sustain over a longer
period of time. Activity may persist well into this evening,
especially across the Delta, as an MCV from a remnant convective
complex near the ArkLaTex continues eastward over the next several
hours. HREF PMM 24 hour QPF suggests potential for a localized
band of higher rainfall totals from S AR into NW MS tonight.
Though we won't advertise a flash flood threat in the HWO given
the area of concern is mainly outside of our area, localized flash
flooding isn't out of the question in the Delta.

Any lingering convection should weaken overnight, with low clouds
developing across much of the area through mid-morning. Tonight, yet
another MCS will likely develop upstream across the Southern Plains
pushing eastward overnight. Though this complex will likely weaken
before reaching our area, its remnants may serve as a focusing
mechanism for renewed convection on Monday afternoon. Diurnal
heating will again lead to moderate to strong instability, with some
hints at stronger deep shear than exists today. While confidence is
low in specific timing and evolution, there are enough ingredients
in place to advertise another marginal risk for severe storms. We
should begin to get a better sense of how things will evolve later
on tonight. /DL/

Tomorrow night through Saturday...
Most of the region gets into a summer-like pattern with heat and
humidity...fueling the chances for periodic showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. An upper low parks just north
of the Great Lakes and weak ridging dominates the Plains. As a
result, flow into the region is split between a more
west/northwesterly pattern in the northern half of the Gulf
States...and a far weaker westerly pattern along the Coast. Weak
surface ridging just to the east sets up south/southwesterly winds
at the surface constantly reinforcing the warm and humid air in
place over the region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be
the rule, with mesoscale influences from convection steering the
short term weather and longevity of any convection into the
overnight hours. Models are having some issues with delineating
between diurnal convection, southerly extent of waves pivoting
around the upper trough, and what looks to be an almost feedback
signal. As a result, the forecast is dominated by chances for
precip at least daily through the end of the week. Given how much
south/southwesterly flow the pattern is signaling, the models are
not varying much in the thermal profile of the midlevels. Forecast
highs and lows are very close to seasonal normals, depending on
the extent of afternoon/early evening precip and cloud cover
limiting the max heat of day. Tuesday and Wednesday are the only
exceptions at this point, a couple degrees below normals due to
precip coverage. /HJS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  71  87 /  39  57  19  80
Meridian      70  92  71  88 /  26  64  17  78
Vicksburg     73  91  74  87 /  42  52  21  80
Hattiesburg   72  91  71  89 /  21  62  11  77
Natchez       72  88  71  86 /  22  61  11  80
Greenville    73  90  72  84 /  76  46  52  83
Greenwood     72  91  71  84 /  60  54  53  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>038-
040>044-047>049-053-059-222045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Jefferson-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening and again on Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening
and again on Monday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern with these storms, but hail up to the size of quarters
will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are again possible on Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

LAZ026-MSZ031-039-045-046-050-051-054-060-222045-
Concordia-Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Copiah-
Adams-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi and Concordia Parish, Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MSZ052-055>058-061>066-072>074-222045-
Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
southeastern Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
723 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSETT                33.13N 91.96W
06/21/2020                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWNED IN CROSSETT. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
723 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MSZ048-054-220100-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-
723 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL HINDS AND NORTH
CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Utica, or 11 miles northwest of Crystal Springs, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dry Grove around 735 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Learned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 9065 3227 9052 3219 9034 3194 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 207DEG 26KT 3207 9053

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
729 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MSZ042>044-047>050-220115-
Scott MS-Warren MS-Hinds MS-Leake MS-Yazoo MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
729 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEAKE...NORTHEASTERN RANKIN...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN...NORTHWESTERN SCOTT...SOUTHERN YAZOO...NORTHERN
HINDS AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Renfroe to 6 miles north of
Annandale to near Oak Ridge. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Carthage and Renfroe around 735 PM CDT.
  Canton around 740 PM CDT.
  Edinburg and Edwards around 750 PM CDT.
  Madden around 755 PM CDT.
  Brownsville around 805 PM CDT.
  Bolton around 810 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Lena, Redwater,
Standing Pine and Bentonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 8932 3245 9003 3225 9072 3252 9082
      3283 8989 3293 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 293DEG 21KT 3280 8947 3260 9015 3245 9071

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
752 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE ONWARD            32.68N 90.92W
06/21/2020                   SHARKEY            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TO 3 TREES DOWNED ALONG LOW WATER BRIDGE
            ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 61. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
            ON RADAR.

&&

DC

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