Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Late afternoon through Friday: as we go through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening, considerable coverage of showers and
storms will continue with strong low level flow help to organize a
couple of arcing lines of storms. There is one line moving into
northeast Louisiana and west Central MS, and this should continue to
affect northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region while a stronger
convective line moves into southern portions of the forecast area
over the next few hours. Overall, the cloud cover helped to limit
low level destabilization today, but there was more significant
heating in the Pine Belt region where low level lapse rates are
steepest and more supportive stronger downdrafts - so will maintain
a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts along/s of the Highway 84
corridor, especially given the unseasonably strong low level flow.

Storms should diminish quickly this evening with loss of heating,
and a pattern transition will begin to take shape in the next 24
hrs. The strong eastern CONUS trough responsible for the recent
active weather pattern is forecast to lift out and leave behind a
general weakness in the subtropical ridge over the ArkLaTex region
while heights build over the Lower MS Valley region. This should
result in greater anticyclonic flow, and less convective
precipitation coverage that is mostly focused on western/northern
portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. /EC/

Friday night through Wednesday: Persistent mid level troughiness
in a light flow regime will continue through at least the early
part of the weekend with another damp day in store Saturday.
Despite continued low level southerly flow, dewpoints in the 70s
and PWs around 1.75", mid level ridging will ensue Sunday and
begin to limit convective coverage over much of the area. The
exception will likely be in the south where southerly flow will
lead to an active sea breeze that can move well inland. While the
ridge will push east Monday, lighter low level southerly flow will
result in a less active sea breeze, but best convective coverage
will still be over the south.

For the remainder of the period, light north to northwesterly flow
regime with dewpoints in the 70s and PWs around 1.75" will result in
continued scattered diurnal slow-moving convection mainly around
peak heating times.

As the pattern evolves through the long term period, temperatures
will moderate closer to normal for this time of year, being
modulated by localized convection and density of dust aloft./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: Considerable coverage of mostly diurnal
SHRA/TSRA activity will continue to be the focus in the TAFs this
afternoon, but it looks like coverage will be more scattered in
nature as we go into Friday and the weekend. Otherwise, given the
very moist airmass, there will be a tendency for low stratus to
develop, especially during the early morning over southern
portions of the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  87  71  86 /  39  22  12  46
Meridian      68  88  71  87 /  37  24   7  36
Vicksburg     72  85  73  86 /  34  24  14  50
Hattiesburg   71  88  71  88 /  34  20  11  38
Natchez       71  85  71  85 /  22  23  13  50
Greenville    71  85  71  86 /  38  26  13  38
Greenwood     71  86  71  87 /  39  30  11  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>056-059-
261930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ060>066-072>074-261930-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into the evening

There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms containing
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ026-MSZ057-058-261930-
Concordia-Jasper-Clarke-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into the evening

There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms containing
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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