Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Late afternoon through Friday: as we go through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening, considerable coverage of showers and
storms will continue with strong low level flow help to organize a
couple of arcing lines of storms. There is one line moving into
northeast Louisiana and west Central MS, and this should continue to
affect northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region while a stronger
convective line moves into southern portions of the forecast area
over the next few hours. Overall, the cloud cover helped to limit
low level destabilization today, but there was more significant
heating in the Pine Belt region where low level lapse rates are
steepest and more supportive stronger downdrafts - so will maintain
a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts along/s of the Highway 84
corridor, especially given the unseasonably strong low level flow.

Storms should diminish quickly this evening with loss of heating,
and a pattern transition will begin to take shape in the next 24
hrs. The strong eastern CONUS trough responsible for the recent
active weather pattern is forecast to lift out and leave behind a
general weakness in the subtropical ridge over the ArkLaTex region
while heights build over the Lower MS Valley region. This should
result in greater anticyclonic flow, and less convective
precipitation coverage that is mostly focused on western/northern
portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. /EC/

Friday night through Wednesday: Persistent mid level troughiness
in a light flow regime will continue through at least the early
part of the weekend with another damp day in store Saturday.
Despite continued low level southerly flow, dewpoints in the 70s
and PWs around 1.75", mid level ridging will ensue Sunday and
begin to limit convective coverage over much of the area. The
exception will likely be in the south where southerly flow will
lead to an active sea breeze that can move well inland. While the
ridge will push east Monday, lighter low level southerly flow will
result in a less active sea breeze, but best convective coverage
will still be over the south.

For the remainder of the period, light north to northwesterly flow
regime with dewpoints in the 70s and PWs around 1.75" will result in
continued scattered diurnal slow-moving convection mainly around
peak heating times.

As the pattern evolves through the long term period, temperatures
will moderate closer to normal for this time of year, being
modulated by localized convection and density of dust aloft./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: Considerable coverage of mostly diurnal
SHRA/TSRA activity will continue to be the focus in the TAFs this
afternoon, but it looks like coverage will be more scattered in
nature as we go into Friday and the weekend. Otherwise, given the
very moist airmass, there will be a tendency for low stratus to
develop, especially during the early morning over southern
portions of the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  87  71  86 /  39  22  12  46
Meridian      68  88  71  87 /  37  24   7  36
Vicksburg     72  85  73  86 /  34  24  14  50
Hattiesburg   71  88  71  88 /  34  20  11  38
Natchez       71  85  71  85 /  22  23  13  50
Greenville    71  85  71  86 /  38  26  13  38
Greenwood     71  86  71  87 /  39  30  11  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>056-059-
261930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ060>066-072>074-261930-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into the evening

There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms containing
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ026-MSZ057-058-261930-
Concordia-Jasper-Clarke-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into the evening

There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms containing
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

LAZ025-MSZ053-059>061-251745-
Tensas LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Claiborne MS-
1157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH...
SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1157 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Stanton, or 12 miles east of Natchez, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hamburg around 1200 PM CDT.
  Stampley and Church Hill around 1205 PM CDT.
  Mcnair around 1210 PM CDT.
  Fayette around 1215 PM CDT.
  Lorman and Red Lick around 1230 PM CDT.
  Port Gibson, Pattison and Hermanville around 1245 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Roxie and Meadville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9117 3157 9117 3168 9138 3195 9134
      3198 9072 3136 9075 3134 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 216DEG 27KT 3161 9119

GRG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

MSZ047-048-251915-
Warren MS-Hinds MS-
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WARREN AND WESTERN HINDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Utica, or 17 miles southeast of Vicksburg, moving northeast at
25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Raymond around 205 PM CDT.
  Bolton around 210 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Learned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 9069 3236 9039 3216 9032 3205 9061
      3205 9065 3215 9073 3222 9073 3219 9077
      3222 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 232DEG 24KT 3217 9064

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

MSZ043-048-049-252000-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RANKIN...EAST CENTRAL
HINDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Jackson, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Richland around 225 PM CDT.
  Pearl and Flowood around 235 PM CDT.
  Ridgeland around 240 PM CDT.
  Madison and Brandon around 245 PM CDT.
  Fannin around 300 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near the Ross Barnett Reservoir, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 9028 3226 9039 3238 9035 3254 8995
      3229 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 251DEG 24KT 3233 9023

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
301 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

LAZ026-MSZ060-252045-
Concordia LA-Adams MS-
301 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Deer Park, or 9 miles east of Monterey, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Natchez and Vidalia around 320 PM CDT.
  Spokane around 330 PM CDT.
  Stanton around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ridgecrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 9176 3161 9174 3164 9171 3174 9168
      3173 9165 3176 9159 3172 9155 3175 9154
      3176 9142 3173 9138 3175 9132 3165 9127
      3163 9115 3135 9116 3137 9127 3129 9153
      3143 9173 3146 9173 3147 9179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 217DEG 35KT 3142 9156

19

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>