Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow:

The closed low is now located over western AR this afternoon with
surface convection spinning all around it. Some isolated severe
storms have developed within our CWA due to a weak trough located
over the LA coast. This feature is providing the lift needed to
aid in storm development along with about 35 kts of effective
bulk shear and some decent lapse rates. This kind of isolated to
scattered activity will continue into the evening before
dissipating. Overnight, there may be some isolated showers that
continue working their way around the upper low while temperatures
will fall into the mid 60s.

For Thursday, with the closed low a little closer overhead and
another disturbance set to move across the area, convection is again
anticipated. Although, the coverage will not be as widespread as
today as drier air aloft slides into the area. Instability will
not be as high but the effective bulk shear will remain high.
Therefore, a marginal risk for strong to severe storms will be in
place. The cold front associated with the closed low will also move
a little more into our area as well and will help to keep much of
the area in the low to mid 80s overall. /10/

Thursday night through Tuesday:

The persistent mid level cold core low over AR will begin opening
up and phasing with a northern stream wave moving into the OH
valley Thursday night as the leftover daytime convection
diminishes over the area. Though overall moisture will be on the
decrease Friday, convergence along trailing cold front will be
sufficient for scattered convection mainly during the heating of
the afternoon.

Drier air will slowly filter into the region Friday night increasing
during the day Saturday as dewpoints drop into the 50s. By Sunday,
diminishing cool air advection, ridging aloft and dry low level air
will promote increasingly efficient warming. In fact, a steady
increase in maximum temperatures from the upper 80s into the lower
90s is likely each day Sunday through Tuesday as heights aloft rise
and dry air remains spread over the area. /GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Currently all of our sites are VFR, but the scattered cloud cover
and storms will change this as storms move in and out of an area
this afternoon. Scattered convection will continue through the
afternoon and will drop flight categories at a site as it moves
through. A strong wind gust may be associated with any storm as
well. This convection will taper off this evening after 00Z with
some isolated showers/storms possible through the night. Some
lowering of ceilings and visibilities will be possible at sites in
east MS around 12Z Thursday, particularly PIB/HBG/GTR. Convection
on Thursday is again anticipated but is not expected to be as
widespread as today. /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  83  64  85 /  26  38  29  17
Meridian      63  86  64  85 /  37  32  34  26
Vicksburg     65  82  64  85 /  21  49  22  15
Hattiesburg   64  87  66  86 /  29  33  34  32
Natchez       64  81  64  84 /  14  40  24  16
Greenville    64  80  65  83 /  30  58  19  18
Greenwood     64  81  64  83 /  33  54  23  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

10/GG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032-
034>037-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062-281945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-
233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Thursday

Thursday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday.

MSZ031-033-038-039-044>046-049>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-281945-
Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon and again Thursday

Tonight, isolated severe storms will linger into the evening.
Thursday, isolated severe thunderstorms are again possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon and Thursday.

10

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             1 NNW GOSHEN SPRINGS    32.49N 89.92W
05/27/2020  E0.70 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF SMALL HAIL WAS SEEN ON TWITTER
            OFF OF MS-471.

&&

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

MSZ055-272200-
Simpson MS-
431 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Martinville, or near Mendenhall, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Martinville around 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8988 3205 8978 3205 8967 3199 8965
      3199 8966 3188 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 233DEG 19KT 3198 8979

22

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
444 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

MSZ064-065-272230-
Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-
444 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Carson, or 14 miles west of Collins, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lone Star around 500 PM CDT.
  Clem around 510 PM CDT.
  Mount Olive around 525 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8973 3161 8986 3177 8991 3178 8962
      3157 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 184DEG 20KT 3156 8979

TW