Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1240 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Currently all of our sites are VFR, but the scattered cloud cover
and storms will change this as storms move in and out of an area
this afternoon. Scattered convection will continue through the
afternoon and will drop flight categories at a site as it moves
through. A strong wind gust may be associated with any storm as
well. This convection will taper off this evening after 00Z with
some isolated showers/storms possible through the night. Some
lowering of ceilings and visibilities will be possible at sites in
east MS around 12Z Thursday, particularly PIB/HBG/GTR. Convection
on Thursday is again anticipated but is not expected to be as
widespread as today. /10/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, not much change in the thinking for today. A marginal
risk of severe storms is still warranted as well as a mention of
heavy downpours. The current convection festering over eastern MS
will continue to be aided by the rear entrance region of an upper
jet and will be the area where stronger storms initiate this
afternoon with the additional aid of peak heating. Strong wind
gusts will be the primary threat, followed by hail and heavy
downpours. While most of the convection is expected to affect
areas east of I-55, a boundary in the western part of the CWA
currently moving eastward will help to initiate some more isolated
storms in the rest of the area today. With the scattered rainfall
and cloud cover, highs in the low 80s are expected but could be a
bit higher if an isolated location manages more sunshine than
most. /10/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...Strong ridging just offshore of the east coast,
will continue to slow the eastward progression of a closed low
centered over the southern plains and its attendant broad trough
which reside over the forecast area.  This troughing over the
region, in addition to daytime heating as highs climb into the 80s,
will continue to yield a good coverage of showers and storms across
the forecast area this morning through at least this evening.  With
better instability and lapse rates across eastern portions of the
CWA this afternoon, along with a little better wind shear compared
to Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible there this
afternoon into early this evening.  Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
and hail to the size of quarters will both be possible with the most
intense storms.  In addition, heavy downpours could also result in
localized flash flooding, especially on roads and in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.  This potential could be further increased if
storms train across the same locations in a short amount of time.

A good bit of the convection will subside through the evening hours
as daytime heating is lost, and some drier air aloft gets pulled up
into the region.  Still, some isolated convection can't be ruled out
across the CWA during the overnight hours as troughing persists
across the region.  With at least partly cloudy skies across the
region, lows tonight will fall into the 60s. /19/

Thursday through next Tuesday...Showers and storms will continue
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold core low approaches the
region. We have introduced a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms for most of the CWA for Thursday as a moist/unstable
air mass will exist, along with decent deep layer shear.
Scattered showers and storms will continue Friday as a cold front
approaches from the north. This activity will be moving out Friday
night into Saturday as the front moves through, and drier and
slightly cooler air is ushered into the region for the weekend.
Expect dry weather Monday and Tuesday as high pressure ridging
will be in place across the area. As for temperatures, highs will
be in the 80s through the period, then warming to near 90 for
portions of the area by Monday, and especially Tuesday. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  63  83  64 /  71  22  28  33
Meridian      81  64  86  64 /  83  49  23  33
Vicksburg     82  65  83  65 /  39  25  35  29
Hattiesburg   82  65  88  66 /  77  37  18  35
Natchez       82  64  82  64 /  36  23  29  27
Greenville    81  65  81  65 /  68  39  51  22
Greenwood     82  64  82  64 /  72  40  50  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032-
034>037-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062-272000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-
328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over much of the
outlook area on Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday.

MSZ031-033-038-039-044>046-049>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-272000-
Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and hail to the size
of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over much of the
outlook area on Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Thursday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1232 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

MSZ074-271800-
Forrest MS-
1232 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FORREST COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1231 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Maxie, or 10 miles northwest of Wiggins, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maxie around 1235 PM CDT.
  Brooklyn around 1240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8934 3100 8934 3100 8935 3114 8935
      3123 8915 3100 8915 3100 8914 3091 8914
      3091 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 240DEG 48KT 3097 8926

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1235 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

MSZ065-073-271800-
Covington MS-Lamar MS-
1235 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sumrall, or 10 miles northwest of West Hattiesburg, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sanford around 1255 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8962 3144 8961 3144 8959 3146 8959
      3159 8946 3155 8940 3144 8940 3143 8941
      3143 8945 3139 8945 3136 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 218DEG 13KT 3143 8949

DB