Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A cold core low over the southern Plains is very slowly on the move
towards the east currently. Over the next 24 hours though, this
system will move very little. As for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, the ongoing convection will continue through 00Z before its
eventual waning. A strong storm will remain possible with a strong
wind gust and heavy downpours being the primary threats. Overnight,
some isolated convection will continue to linger as a boundary works
its way through the CWA. Going into Wednesday, the upper low will be
a little better positioned so that a marginal severe threat will be
in place for part of the area. With cool mid-level temps in place
due to the mid-level low, decent mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. The instability
will increase through the morning and, based on the CAMS,  storms
look to fire over the Pine Belt region and push towards the
northeast through the afternoon. The main threats will be strong
wind gusts and hail, along with some heavy downpours. This threat
will linger into the evening before the storms move out of the
area/dissipate due to lack of diurnal heating. With the high chance
of pops in place and extensive cloud cover, high temps are expected
to only top out in the low 80s tomorrow. /10/

Wednesday night through Monday: Although cold core mid level low
will remain over the ArkLaTex at the beginning of the period, a weak
shortwave ridge rotating around the low will push across the area,
diminish the remaining evening convection, and scour away a
significant amount of the PW, dropping below 1.5". The low will push
into AR Thursday and north MS Friday as it begins to open up and
shear out. While abundant cloud cover will still hinder warming,
limited moisture should keep convection more scattered in nature.

Meanwhile, high amplitude ridging from the west Friday will drop a
cold front to our northwest doorstep by Friday evening. This front
will sweep south Friday night and usher much drier/slightly cooler
air into the region Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will be
slightly cooler both these days, but lows at night will be
noticeably cooler around 60. By Monday, the ridging aloft and dry
air at the surface will promote a rather warm day as highs approach
90 once again./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Low level cloud cover has flight conditions across the area set at
MVFR or below for the majority of today. With scattered showers
and a couple isolated storms expected, ceilings may not improve
throughout the forecast period unless the cloud cover can break up
a bit this afternoon. The isolated convection is traveling
southwest to northeast this afternoon and could bring a lowering
in flight categories to any particular site with its passing.
Expect this activity to begin waning this evening after approx.
02Z. Ceilings will remain low overnight and even lower after 06Z
to IFR category. While ceilings will lift after 12Z, convection is
again expected on Wednesday and will keep flight categories below
VFR. /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  81  65  84 /  64  68  27  31
Meridian      67  83  66  87 /  73  79  38  34
Vicksburg     67  81  67  83 /  52  53  27  35
Hattiesburg   67  83  66  87 /  70  75  28  33
Natchez       65  81  66  82 /  48  37  17  32
Greenville    67  81  66  80 /  65  61  39  48
Greenwood     68  81  66  82 /  72  74  38  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

10/GG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-
047-048-053-054-059>061-272000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-
Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ039-045-046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-272000-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Wednesday

On Wednesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday night
for portions of southeast Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

10

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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