Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Jackson, MS

014 
WGUS74 KJAN 262143
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

MSC035-073-262153-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200526T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-
443 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3128 8965 3143 8949 3143 8915 3114 8915
      3100 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942 3098 8943
      3098 8948 3100 8948 3100 8950 3101 8950
      3101 8955 3100 8955 3100 8965

$$

TW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A cold core low over the southern Plains is very slowly on the move
towards the east currently. Over the next 24 hours though, this
system will move very little. As for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, the ongoing convection will continue through 00Z before its
eventual waning. A strong storm will remain possible with a strong
wind gust and heavy downpours being the primary threats. Overnight,
some isolated convection will continue to linger as a boundary works
its way through the CWA. Going into Wednesday, the upper low will be
a little better positioned so that a marginal severe threat will be
in place for part of the area. With cool mid-level temps in place
due to the mid-level low, decent mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. The instability
will increase through the morning and, based on the CAMS,  storms
look to fire over the Pine Belt region and push towards the
northeast through the afternoon. The main threats will be strong
wind gusts and hail, along with some heavy downpours. This threat
will linger into the evening before the storms move out of the
area/dissipate due to lack of diurnal heating. With the high chance
of pops in place and extensive cloud cover, high temps are expected
to only top out in the low 80s tomorrow. /10/

Wednesday night through Monday: Although cold core mid level low
will remain over the ArkLaTex at the beginning of the period, a weak
shortwave ridge rotating around the low will push across the area,
diminish the remaining evening convection, and scour away a
significant amount of the PW, dropping below 1.5". The low will push
into AR Thursday and north MS Friday as it begins to open up and
shear out. While abundant cloud cover will still hinder warming,
limited moisture should keep convection more scattered in nature.

Meanwhile, high amplitude ridging from the west Friday will drop a
cold front to our northwest doorstep by Friday evening. This front
will sweep south Friday night and usher much drier/slightly cooler
air into the region Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will be
slightly cooler both these days, but lows at night will be
noticeably cooler around 60. By Monday, the ridging aloft and dry
air at the surface will promote a rather warm day as highs approach
90 once again./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Low level cloud cover has flight conditions across the area set at
MVFR or below for the majority of today. With scattered showers
and a couple isolated storms expected, ceilings may not improve
throughout the forecast period unless the cloud cover can break up
a bit this afternoon. The isolated convection is traveling
southwest to northeast this afternoon and could bring a lowering
in flight categories to any particular site with its passing.
Expect this activity to begin waning this evening after approx.
02Z. Ceilings will remain low overnight and even lower after 06Z
to IFR category. While ceilings will lift after 12Z, convection is
again expected on Wednesday and will keep flight categories below
VFR. /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  81  65  84 /  64  68  27  31
Meridian      67  83  66  87 /  73  79  38  34
Vicksburg     67  81  67  83 /  52  53  27  35
Hattiesburg   67  83  66  87 /  70  75  28  33
Natchez       65  81  66  82 /  48  37  17  32
Greenville    67  81  66  80 /  65  61  39  48
Greenwood     68  81  66  82 /  72  74  38  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

10/GG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-
047-048-053-054-059>061-272000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-
Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ039-045-046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-272000-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
249 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Wednesday

On Wednesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday night
for portions of southeast Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

10

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
228 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

MSZ048-049-054-055-262015-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
228 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON...SOUTH CENTRAL HINDS AND NORTHEASTERN COPIAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 228 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Hopewell, or near Crystal Springs, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hopewell around 235 PM CDT.
  Whites around 300 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 9032 3207 9043 3214 9019 3195 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 240DEG 13KT 3197 9027

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

MSZ048-049-262015-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
234 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Byram, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson around 240 PM CDT.
  Byram around 245 PM CDT.
  Richland around 310 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 9046 3240 9013 3235 9011 3232 9015
      3230 9016 3229 9015 3217 9008 3208 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 241DEG 14KT 3221 9033

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
252 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

MSZ049-055-262100-
Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
252 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SIMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 252 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Clinton to near Florence to near
Rockport. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Jackson around 300 PM CDT.
  Florence around 310 PM CDT.
  Monterey around 320 PM CDT.
  Star and Harrisville around 325 PM CDT.
  Piney Woods around 340 PM CDT.
  Pearl and Flowood around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Braxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 9019 3217 9008 3230 9016 3232 9015
      3233 9013 3235 9011 3217 8998 3199 8996
      3195 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 262DEG 12KT 3228 9034 3214 9019 3186 9018

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

MSZ073-074-262115-
Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
310 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles north of Baxterville, or 13 miles southwest of
West Hattiesburg, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pine Ridge around 315 PM CDT.
  Hattiesburg around 325 PM CDT.
  Sumrall around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8965 3143 8914 3110 8915 3110 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 172DEG 17KT 3120 8954

TW