Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected
today, roughly from noon to 8 PM eastern time. Damaging wind
gusts may be most widespread toward Interstate 69 and eastward
into Ohio. The extended forecast remains largely dry at this
time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Continued strong confidence in multiple severe weather events,
especially eastern half of CWA this afternoon. Area of concern
developing on leading edge of dryline advancing eastward into
southwest Indiana/KEVV vicinity. Hi-res satellite data showing
rapid transition to convective streets and sheared towering
cumulus field. As this embedded mesoscale vorticity lifts north-
northeast. Effective shear, with speed shear largely attributing,
to 50-55 knots over northern Indiana coincident with moderate to
strong unstable airmass. Pockets of heating with surface
temperatures into middle 80s and dewpoints in middle 70s with
3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE early this afternoon will continue to
provide upscale growth of linear segments, potential LEWP with an
embedded tornado, though by far the greatest risk is for
widespread damaging wind gusts, significant tree and possible
structural damage in isolated areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening. The meteorology is described in the
below paragraphs. The basics are: discrete thunderstorms can develop
in the early afternoon and are expected to then form into a squall
line near and east of Interstate 69, tracking through northwest
Ohio. The initial starting point of the thunderstorms offers medium
confidence, but is perhaps near Indiana route 15. High confidence in
damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. The threat ends
near/after 8 PM EDT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

An upper-level trough digs in later Friday into Saturday with a
secondary cold front at 850 mb. The GFS has been adamant about rain
chances with this feature and it now seems the ECMWF is jumping on
board. However, timing varies. Thereafter, guidance attempts to
develop a cut-off low over the Northeast US (00z GFS) to the eastern
Great Lakes (00z ECMWF) as a towering ridge centered over Texas
overtakes the aformentioned upper-level trough. For now, will focus
on getting through today's severe thereat and carry on in the
extended with limited/nil rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

A 40 kt low level jet pushes towards the region ahead of a strong
cold front. Gusty synoptic winds are expected today between 25
and 30 kts out of the southwest before dying off after midnight
tonight. Thunderstorms will have the potential to create damaging
winds as well as the possibility of large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Heavy rain from thunderstorms will have the potential
to reduce CIGs/VISBY into IFR to LIFR threshold, but quick storm
motions should make those conditions brief. Storms should be out
of the area during the evening/early overnight. Then, a brief
period of MVFR CIGs are possible around 3z-5z as a secondary CAA
area moves through. Winds will continue to die down and clouds
will clear Thursday as the remnants of Cristobal move away from
the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Murphy
SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roller

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

INZ005>009-016>018-023>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-110800-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected
today. Please ensure you have a reliable method to receive weather
watches and warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions.

INZ003-MIZ077-110800-
La Porte-Berrien-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 /258 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Additionally, thunderstorms today could produce locally damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions.

INZ004-012>015-020-022-110800-
St. Joseph IN-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 /258 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms today could produce locally damaging wind gusts.
However, the severe thunderstorm risk is greatest toward eastern
Indiana, northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

LMZ043-046-110800-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory.

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