Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
420 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 420 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Showers and storms exit into central Ohio this evening with drier,
less humid and breezy conditions. Quiet weather will prevail for
the next several days. There is just a low chance of a showere
late Friday night into Saturday. Otherwise, it will be dry with
seasonably cool temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures
will gradually warm early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Misovorticies along mid level moisture/dryline interface taking
advantage of favorable environment /3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE and
50-55 knots effective layer shear/ upstream environment.
Strong/near uni-directional flow providing storm motion 60-70 mph
to north-northeast. Accelerating downdraft/weak reflectivity
notches easily producing severe limit winds with a few
significant/extreme damaging wind events this afternoon. Will
continue to follow line and cancel watch with eastward progression
and expect to clear east of CWA by 2230 UTC.

Slight bump in winds for both this evening and midday Thursday
with steep low level lapse rates/momentum transfer. Full airmass
exchange for Thursday/dry and notably less humid and seasonably
cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Gradual building Plains ridge through the weekend with continued
north central Canadian waves digging through downstream side of
ridge. There are weak signals for a clipper like system to bring a
low chance showers late Friday night into early Saturday.
Thereafter, surface/aloft ridging to envelop Upper Great Lakes
offers continuation of dry conditions and thermal moderation early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

A 40 kt low level jet pushes towards the region ahead of a strong
cold front. Gusty synoptic winds are expected today between 25
and 30 kts out of the southwest before dying off after midnight
tonight. Thunderstorms will have the potential to create damaging
winds as well as the possibility of large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Heavy rain from thunderstorms will have the potential
to reduce CIGs/VISBY into IFR to LIFR threshold, but quick storm
motions should make those conditions brief. Storms should be out
of the area during the evening/early overnight. Then, a brief
period of MVFR CIGs are possible around 3z-5z as a secondary CAA
area moves through. Winds will continue to die down and clouds
will clear Thursday as the remnants of Cristobal move away from
the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...Roller

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

INZ005>009-016>018-023>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-110800-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected
today. Please ensure you have a reliable method to receive weather
watches and warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions.

INZ003-MIZ077-110800-
La Porte-Berrien-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 /258 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Additionally, thunderstorms today could produce locally damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions.

INZ004-012>015-020-022-110800-
St. Joseph IN-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 /258 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms today could produce locally damaging wind gusts.
However, the severe thunderstorm risk is greatest toward eastern
Indiana, northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

LMZ043-046-110800-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory.

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