Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Indianapolis, IN

499 
WWUS53 KIND 112137
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
537 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INC005-081-145-112200-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200711T2200Z/
Shelby IN-Johnson IN-Bartholomew IN-
537 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTH CENTRAL
BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES...

At 537 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Franklin, or 12
miles southwest of Shelbyville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Edinburgh, Flat Rock, Marietta and Taylorsville. 

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 74 and 90.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 8609 3951 8600 3940 8576 3926 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 316DEG 13KT 3945 8600 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Puma

325 
WWUS53 KIND 112151
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INC005-081-145-112201-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200711T2200Z/
Shelby IN-Johnson IN-Bartholomew IN-
551 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTH CENTRAL BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3945 8609 3951 8600 3940 8576 3926 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 313DEG 31KT 3937 8594 

$$

Puma

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
454 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A pair of upper level weather disturbances will push across
Indiana tonight and on Sunday. This will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms to Central Indiana to close out the
weekend.

High pressure is then expected to build across the area for the
start of the work week...providing dry weather with slightly below
normal temperatures.

A warm front is expected to push across the area on Tuesday. This
will usher hot and humid air back to Central Indiana...along with
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms for the middle and
latter part of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
across the lower Mississippi river Valley and Low pressure over
upstate NY. This was resulting in a light W-NW flow across
Indiana...with dew point temps mainly in the low to mid 60s. A
convective complex was found over eastern IA and Nrn IL...pushing
SE within the flow aloft.

The air mass ahead of the approaching convection and subtle short
wave will be marginally favorable for convection. Forecast
soundings show CAPE around 1500 J/kg along with convective
temperatures in the upper 80s which should be reached. HRRR shows
scattered convection arriving late this afternoon and into the
early evening within the NW flow aloft. Thus will focus some pops
late this afternoon and early this evening given the impact of
daytime heating. Better forcing looks to arrive overnight in
association with the approaching short wave over the upper
Midwest. Time Height at that time suggest deep moisture and lift
in play. HRRR at that time also suggests more widespread
precipitation overspreading the area. Thus will once again trend
pops higher after midnight and into early Sunday as this feature
pushes across the area. Given the expected clouds and possible
precip...will trend lows at or above the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Tuesday/...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

GFS and NAM show the short wave departing on Early Sunday
morning. However forecast soundings by Sunday afternoon again
show favorable conditions for convection with steep lapse
rates...CAPE over 2500 J/KG and pwats over 1.5...and convective
temps in the lower 80s. Thus will keep some pops in the forecast
on Sunday through the hours of Diurnal heating. However of
note..any afternoon convection should be much more isolated.

Forecast soundings show good subsidence within the column on
Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night....as mid levels show good
drying. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure is expected to
build across Indiana and the Great Lakes...lowly passing across
the area through Tuesday. As the high pressure passes along with
the NW flow in place aloft on the lee side of an upper ridge over
the plains...more subsidence will be expected through Tuesday.
With Northeast winds expected around high...Dry weather will be
expected on Monday through Tuesday with slightly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night to Saturday/...

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Upper high pressure will expand into our area through the long
term. Recent models continue to trend with the high not moving
into the area quite as much as previous runs, thus have also been
trending towards highs only getting into the low 90s rather than
mid 90s or slightly higher. This will also place the region under
more zonal flow as well as on the periphery of the high... in
these cases, slight upper wave and mesoscale disturbances become
more influential for rain chances. These conditions lead to lower
confidence on specific rain events through the long term as models
fluctuate. Have generally accepted guidance, but did cap PoPs at
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/21Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 451 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Update...
Thunderstorms will impact KIND over the next hour. Expect quick
drops in visibilities.

Previous Discussion...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
the exception of a few sites getting down to MVFR within storms
and expected lower ceilings tomorrow morning ahead of a front.

A frontal system will bring a line of storms into the area
starting tonight and lasting through the day tomorrow. Some
isolated storms are possible through the rest of this afternoon
and evening, ahead of the system. Winds will be shifting with the
passage of the front from westerly to northerly, which models show
will pass through central Indiana during the morning to midday
hours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....KH
AVIATION...KH/TDUD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-121015-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
420 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and tonight. A
few storms may be severe this evening...especially over western
portions of central Indiana.

Hazards: Damaging winds...large hail...lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

Timing: Storms possible anytime after 4 pm. Greatest threat for
severe weather this evening.

Discussion: Today will be mainly dry as high pressure shifts east. An
upper level disturbance will approach the area by late day with
chances for thunderstorms increasing from late this afternoon into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday. Daily
chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return Tuesday
night and continue into next weekend.

Heat index values could approach 100 across all of central Indiana
on Thursday and Friday.

Discussion: The upper level disturbance will move across the Ohio
Valley on Sunday...bringing the best chance for numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the next week. After a couple dry days...
thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through Friday along with
a return to hot and humid conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               40.28N 86.51W
07/11/2020  E0.70 INCH       CLINTON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
452 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             1 WNW CROWS NEST        39.86N 86.20W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR 56TH AND MICHIGAN RD.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
453 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MERIDIAN HILLS    39.90N 86.22W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR 79TH AND MICHIGAN RD.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E EAGLE CREEK RESERVO 39.85N 86.26W
07/11/2020                   MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            6 INCH TREE LIMBS BROKE NEAR 56TH STREET AND
            LAFAYETTE RD.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             MONUMENT CIRCLE         39.77N 86.15W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL DOWNTOWN.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
507 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BEECH GROVE       39.72N 86.12W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT KEYSTONE AVE AND TROY
            AVE.

&&

JP