Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Indianapolis, IN

221 
WWUS53 KIND 111924
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INC015-157-111945-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200711T1945Z/
Carroll IN-Tippecanoe IN-
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES...

At 324 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brookston, or
11 miles southwest of Monticello, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Dayton, Battle Ground and Purdue
University.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 165 and 184.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4032 8670 4035 8690 4056 8699 4056 8677
      4062 8677 4065 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 313DEG 42KT 4060 8685 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Puma

547 
WWUS53 KIND 111939
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INC015-157-111949-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200711T1945Z/
Carroll IN-Tippecanoe IN-
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4032 8670 4035 8690 4056 8699 4056 8677
      4062 8677 4065 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 320DEG 36KT 4052 8672 

$$

Puma

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A pair of upper level weather disturbances will push across
Indiana tonight and on Sunday. This will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms to Central Indiana to close out the
weekend.

High pressure is then expected to build across the area for the
start of the work week...providing dry weather with slightly below
normal temperatures.

A warm front is expected to push across the area on Tuesday. This
will usher hot and humid air back to Central Indiana...along with
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms for the middle and
latter part of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
across the lower Mississippi river Valley and Low pressure over
upstate NY. This was resulting in a light W-NW flow across
Indiana...with dew point temps mainly in the low to mid 60s. A
convective complex was found over eastern IA and Nrn IL...pushing
SE within the flow aloft.

The air mass ahead of the approaching convection and subtle short
wave will be marginally favorable for convection. Forecast
soundings show CAPE around 1500 J/kg along with convective
temperatures in the upper 80s which should be reached. HRRR shows
scattered convection arriving late this afternoon and into the
early evening within the NW flow aloft. Thus will focus some pops
late this afternoon and early this evening given the impact of
daytime heating. Better forcing looks to arrive overnight in
association with the approaching short wave over the upper
Midwest. Time Height at that time suggest deep moisture and lift
in play. HRRR at that time also suggests more widespread
precipitation overspreading the area. Thus will once again trend
pops higher after midnight and into early Sunday as this feature
pushes across the area. Given the expected clouds and possible
precip...will trend lows at or above the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Tuesday/...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

GFS and NAM show the short wave departing on Early Sunday
morning. However forecast soundings by Sunday afternoon again
show favorable conditions for convection with steep lapse
rates...CAPE over 2500 J/KG and pwats over 1.5...and convective
temps in the lower 80s. Thus will keep some pops in the forecast
on Sunday through the hours of Diurnal heating. However of
note..any afternoon convection should be much more isolated.

Forecast soundings show good subsidence within the column on
Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night....as mid levels show good
drying. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure is expected to
build across Indiana and the Great Lakes...lowly passing across
the area through Tuesday. As the high pressure passes along with
the NW flow in place aloft on the lee side of an upper ridge over
the plains...more subsidence will be expected through Tuesday.
With Northeast winds expected around high...Dry weather will be
expected on Monday through Tuesday with slightly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night to Saturday/...

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Upper high pressure will expand into our area through the long
term. Recent models continue to trend with the high not moving
into the area quite as much as previous runs, thus have also been
trending towards highs only getting into the low 90s rather than
mid 90s or slightly higher. This will also place the region under
more zonal flow as well as on the periphery of the high... in
these cases, slight upper wave and mesoscale disturbances become
more influential for rain chances. These conditions lead to lower
confidence on specific rain events through the long term as models
fluctuate. Have generally accepted guidance, but did cap PoPs at
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
the exception of a few sites getting down to MVFR within storms
and expected lower ceilings tomorrow morning ahead of a front.

A frontal system will bring a line of storms into the area
starting tonight and lasting through the day tomorrow. Some
isolated storms are possible through the rest of this afternoon
and evening, ahead of the system. Winds will be shifting with the
passage of the front from westerly to northerly, which models show
will pass through central Indiana during the morning to midday
hours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....KH
AVIATION...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-121015-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
420 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and tonight. A
few storms may be severe this evening...especially over western
portions of central Indiana.

Hazards: Damaging winds...large hail...lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

Timing: Storms possible anytime after 4 pm. Greatest threat for
severe weather this evening.

Discussion: Today will be mainly dry as high pressure shifts east. An
upper level disturbance will approach the area by late day with
chances for thunderstorms increasing from late this afternoon into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday. Daily
chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return Tuesday
night and continue into next weekend.

Heat index values could approach 100 across all of central Indiana
on Thursday and Friday.

Discussion: The upper level disturbance will move across the Ohio
Valley on Sunday...bringing the best chance for numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the next week. After a couple dry days...
thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through Friday along with
a return to hot and humid conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan