Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Lincoln, IL

777 
WWUS53 KILX 282248
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
548 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ILC129-179-282257-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200428T2315Z/
Menard-Tazewell-
548 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MENARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4014 8997 4021 8968 4035 8964 4034 8943
      4000 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 289DEG 26KT 4020 8967 

$$

ILC107-125-282315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200428T2315Z/
Logan-Mason-
548 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 547 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mason City,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mason City, Greenview, San Jose, Emden, Middletown, New Holland and
Sweetwater.

This includes Interstate 155 between mile markers 10 and 12.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 8997 4021 8968 4035 8964 4034 8943
      4000 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 289DEG 26KT 4020 8967 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Auten

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

A cold front will trigger thunderstorms across central Illinois
this evening...a few of which could become severe. The storms will
push into Indiana toward midnight, with just scattered showers
lingering overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1004mb low over southeast
Minnesota with a cold front extending southwestward to near the
Kansas City metro. The airmass ahead of the front has become
moderately unstable as per SPC mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE values
of 1000-1500J/kg near the Mississippi River. CAMs have been
consistently indicating robust convective initiation west of the
I-55 corridor between 21z/4pm and 22z/5pm. Given strengthening
instability and modest 0-6km bulk shear of around 40kt, think a
low-end severe risk will accompany the storms as they track
eastward and eventually congeal into a line early this evening.
Main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts/hail: however, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as the cells first get
organized. The tornado threat will be confined to the western KILX
CWA during the first couple hours of the event until the storms
form a solid line east of I-55 by around 01z/8pm. The storms will
then push steadily eastward and exit into Indiana by late
evening. Once the initial line departs, widely scattered showers
will remain possible for the remainder of the night. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the Illinois River
Valley...to the middle 50s near the Indiana border.

A short-wave trough will dig into the region and form a closed
low over Illinois on Thursday. Given cold core aloft during peak
heating, showers will become numerous from late morning through
early evening. With extensive cloud cover limiting boundary layer
heating, instability will remain meager: however, think a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible as MUCAPE values exceed
100J/kg. May also see a few small hailstones and perhaps even a
funnel cloud or two as the cold core moves overhead. High
temperatures will remain in the 50s across much of the area, with
lower 60s noted east of the I-57 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

The upper low will be slow to depart as several 12z models suggest
scattered showers will linger across the E/SE CWA into Thursday.
have included chance PoPs east of the I-55 corridor accordingly.
Have also lowered highs by a few degrees due to cloud cover...with
readings ranging from the middle 50s east to around 60 in the
Illinois River Valley. Once the low finally exits, rising upper
heights will lead to a significant warming trend for the end of
the week. Highs will climb into the 60s on Friday, then will soar
well into the 70s by Saturday. After that, the next storm system
will come into the picture late Saturday night through Sunday
night as low pressure tracks through the region. Once that feature
passes, a return to mild/dry weather is anticipated for
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Main aviation forecast concern is timing of convection this
evening. Latest satellite/radar mosaic shows a line of showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms developing ahead of an
approaching cold front across eastern Iowa into northern Missouri.
Based on latest radar trends and HRRR forecasts, have included a
TEMPO group for thunder and MVFR ceilings at KPIA between 23z and
01z...then further east to KCMI/KDEC between 01z and 03z. Once the
front passes, showers/storms will come to an end and S/SW winds
will veer to W/NW overnight into Wednesday morning. Deep upper low
will then settle into the region during the day Wednesday,
bringing MVFR ceilings and scattered showers to the TAF sites.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ILZ027>031-037-038-042>046-051>057-061>063-291100-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-McLean-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-
Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 10 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ036-040-041-047>050-291100-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

Minor flooding is occurring on the Illinois River at Havana and
Beardstown. Minor flooding is occurring on the lower Sangamon
river at Chandlerville and Oakford.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

Minor flooding will continue on the Illinois River at Beardstown,
Havana, and Valley City, and the Sangamon River at Chandlerville
and Oakford through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 8 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ066>068-071>073-291100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

Minor flooding is occurring on the Little Wabash river near Clay
City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

The Little Wabash river at Clay City will continue to remain above
or near flood stage through much of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 8 pm and 11 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Auten