Tornado Warning 6, NWS Wilmington, OH

594 
WWUS51 KILN 090243
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

KYC117-090253-
/O.CAN.KILN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200409T0300Z/
Kenton KY-
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN KENTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for northern
Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio.

LAT...LON 3891 8426 3894 8445 3895 8445 3898 8443
      3899 8443 3898 8445 3905 8444 3905 8442
      3904 8441 3904 8437 3901 8431 3900 8430
      3897 8430 3895 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 287DEG 43KT 3899 8442 

$$

KYC037-090300-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200409T0300Z/
Campbell KY-
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
CAMPBELL COUNTY...
    
At 1043 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Alexandria, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Highland Heights, Claryville, New Richmond, Silver Grove,
Melbourne, Cold Spring, Ryland Heights, Crestview and California.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 8426 3894 8445 3895 8445 3898 8443
      3899 8443 3898 8445 3905 8444 3905 8442
      3904 8441 3904 8437 3901 8431 3900 8430
      3897 8430 3895 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 287DEG 43KT 3899 8442 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and bring one more
round of showers and thunderstorms. A few showers will follow
Thursday and Thursday evening, with temperatures about 20
degrees cooler from today's highs expected on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch #91 is now in effect for a portion of the NWS
Wilmington OH forecast area.

Current surface analysis indicates a cold front extends from
near Chicago to the southwest, with a wave of low pressure along
the front in central Illinois, soon to move east into western
Indiana. There is also a well-defined 850mb wave riding
basically along with the front, and favorable divergence aloft
ahead of a very well defined 500mb jet streak. Large scale
ascent ahead of these features has led to lots of convection
developing within the warm sector -- discrete cells in and near
southern Illinois, and clusters of cells (with a few isolated
supercells) closer to the cold front further north. Over the
next few hours, as these storms make their way into the ILN CWA,
these storms are expected to continue to grow upscale into a
linear feature (perhaps a bowing MCS) with some potential for
continued discrete development ahead of it. The model signal has
been very consistent with regards to MCS/bow/QLCS type storm
morphology affecting the southwestern quadrant of the ILN CWA in
the 02Z-03Z time frame, then spreading ESE from there in the
04Z-06Z time frame. This forecast still appears to be on track.

The biggest question mark with regards to the severe threat
tonight is with low-level moisture. Dewpoints mixed out
impressively today, with T/Td depressions of over 30F being
observed all across the ILN forecast area. Looking at model
theta-e projections, it is clear that there will be an
impressive but short-lived surge of moisture coming into the
area, but only in the 2-3 hours immediately before the storms
arrive. With light and variable winds observed in the Cincinnati
area at 7PM, it is expected that this switch to SSW flow is
about to begin. If the boundary layer is not able to appreciably
moisten, surface-based instability may be somewhat limited by
inhibition. This would end up supporting an outflow-dominant
storm mode and in that case, the dry air could actually end up
exacerbating the threat for strong wind. What will keep these
storms strong, regardless of the above, is the combination of
strong forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Though the questions about boundary layer stability
may also inhibit tornado potential, the 0-1km shear (which does
include some turning very low to the ground) is at least a
little bit concerning, along with the presence of the surface
wave and a pseudo-warm frontal boundary that the storms might be
running along.

Ultimately, the main issue tonight is expected to be a wind
damage threat, with at least some potential for swaths of
significant wind damage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will be hard pressed to recover more than a handful
of degrees on Thursday given the cold advection and northwest
winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. This will make it feel a
good 10-15 degrees colder than ambient temperatures. After our
past few days of high temps in the 70s, it will definitely feel
blustery.

Highs will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, maxing out
around noon or the early afternoon. Cold air may also present
enough overturning in the daytime for some scattered showers.

During the evening, an area of showers is expected to cross nnw
to sse as an energetic upper trough oriented w-e crosses in the
early evening. The upper dynamics will help to push a secondary
surface pressure trough/wind shift southward ahead of it.

Low temperatures will be fairly uniform with a good wnw wind
overnight, ranging from 33-35 for most of the area. This could
present an issue with a freeze warning becoming necessary, but
there is not any real threat of frost given the wind speed.
Given expected convective weather tonight, will not include
mention of this potential freeze until after this threat is
over.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley to
the Carolina Coast Friday into Saturday. This will keep us mainly
dry and cool through the end of the week. Temperatures on Friday
will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Friday night will also be cool with lows in the lower 30s
and areas of frost likely.

Mid level short wave energy will eject out of the southern Plains
Saturday night into Sunday helping to carve out a broad upper level
trough over much of the CONUS through mid week. An associated
strengthening surface low will lift northeast across the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. Models continue
to struggle with the timing/placement/strength of the surface low
but both the GEFS and ECMWF means keep the surface low just off to
our west as it tracks up toward the Great Lakes. This will lead to
an increasing chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night and will
allow for some categorical pops to overspread the region. Degree of
destabilization is somewhat in doubt ahead of the low, but given the
possible strength of the low, will at least allow for a slight
chance of thunder. Ahead of the low, temperatures will moderate
through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in 50s, with highs on
Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

There are a lot of model differences late in the period. Will hang
on to some lower end pops given the upper level trough and potential
for weak disturbances working through. This will also result in well
below normal temperatures through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Two main concerns for the TAFs in the next 24 hours.

First is the potential for thunderstorms tonight. Storms are
expected to move across the TAF sites between 02Z and 06Z. There
is high confidence in thunderstorms with IFR conditions
occurring at KCVG/KLUK/KILN, and moderate confidence at
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. In addition, the storms at KCVG/KLUK/KILN may
produce strong to severe winds. Gusts have been included in
tempo groups at these airports, and these gusts may need to be
increased in future forecasts.

Some MVFR ceilings and continuing showers are expected behind
the storms, and after a few hours, a front will move through the
area. This front will switch winds to the northwest, and these
winds will then gradually increase through the rest of the
overnight and into tomorrow. This is the second item of concern
for the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow, but as wind
gusts continue to increase, they will get to around 30 knots.
There is some chance of winds exceeding 35 knots, and thus these
wind gusts tomorrow morning/afternoon may need to be increased
in future TAFs as well.

Some clouds and a chance of showers will move back into the
airports late tomorrow afternoon / tomorrow evening, but VFR
conditions are expected.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms are possible Sunday
and Sunday night. Gusty winds are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hatzos

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-091200-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
414 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move southeast across the region later this
evening into the early morning hours. Damaging winds, large hail,
heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Frost will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning as
temperatures drop into the lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>054-060>064-070>074-080>082-088-091200-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
414 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move southeast across the region later this
evening into the early morning hours. Damaging winds, large hail,
heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado will be possible with the
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Frost will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning as
temperatures drop into the lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-055-056-065-091200-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Franklin OH-
Licking-Fairfield-
414 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible later this evening into the early
morning hours. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threat,
but a tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Frost will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning as
temperatures drop into the lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                39.40N 84.56W
04/08/2020  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             OH   PUBLIC

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLERAIN TOWNSHIP       39.26N 84.63W
04/08/2020                   HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND PEA-SIZED HAIL

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             BLUE ASH                39.25N 84.38W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1032 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCEBURG            39.09N 84.86W
04/08/2020  M67 MPH          DEARBORN           IN   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             LANDEN                  39.31N 84.28W
04/08/2020  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1034 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     TSTM WND GST     KHAO HAMILTON APT       39.36N 84.52W
04/08/2020  M54 MPH          BUTLER             OH   ASOS

&&

JEG