Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will remain in the region through today which
will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms for areas
south and west of Columbus. High pressure building in from the
north will then bring slightly drier air to the area by late
Wednesday through the end of the week. Above normal temperatures
are expected by late in the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to widespread convection stretching along and south of
convergent boundary straddling the forecast area. While the
boundary is weak, the environment is primed with warm cloud
depths at 3.5-4k ft and a tight PW gradient from 1.3 near the US
35 corridor ramping up to 1.8 in portions of northern KY. Very
slow storm motion along with back-building potential, with
afternoon storms producing up to 1.5 inches of rain in 30
minutes and reports of flash flooding. Flash flood watch in
effect until 04z, though confidence in just how quickly the
convection will work its way south with the sagging boundary and
the loss of diurnal instability. SB CAPE values linger at 3k+
through 01-02z.

On top of the flash flood threat, some potential for isolated
severe storms, with DCAPE at 800-1000 J/Kg. Severe threat should
diminish in the 00-02z timeframe. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While the frontal boundary will become weaker and will settle
just south of the region, with high pressure working in from the
north. Drier conditions and a slightly more stable atmosphere
will settle into the region for Wednesday, but still a chance
for isolated to scattered afternoon storms. Less potential for
severe storms, with the most moisture-laden area having sunk
well south of the Ohio river, so while still the potential for
brief heavy rain in slow moving storms, not nearly the threat
for storm clustering as Tuesday, so no expectation for
additional flash flood watches at this time.

CAMs continue to perform fairly poorly with lack of a clear
steering mechanism for storms on Wednesday, but some potential
for SB CAPE values to be in the 2k-2500 range for Wednesday
afternoon.

Continued heat for Wednesday with highs near 90 in the north to
upper 80s in the south with a little greater cloud cover closer
to the lingering weak frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The period will begin with a omega type block over the U.S. into
southern Canada. The ridge portion of the block will extend over the
Mississippi Valley up into the western Great Lakes. The beginning of
the period should be dry as high pressure at the surface over
Wisconsin brings in more stable air. Temperatures will be above
normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The ridge will begin to expand in size as the eastern U.S. H5 low
pushes off to the east, while the western Canadian low lifts to the
north. Friday will be a tad hotter, with highs in the lower 90s for
everyone.

By the weekend, we start to see some differences in the model
solutions. The GFS and CMC pop some scattered convection each day,
while the ECMWF keeps the area dry. With the H5 ridge retreating,
feel that some isolated convection will be possible, so added some
20 PoPs for Sunday, but kept Saturday dry for now. Highs both days
will be 90-95.

By Monday, there should be enough return moisture for scattered
diurnal convection for the end of the period. Highs will remain
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convergent boundary straddling central Ohio and will slowly push
to the south through this evening. Along and to the SW of this
boundary, very slow moving thunderstorms will result in
occasional MVFR to even IFR visibility and even cigs in heavy
rain. This will mainly be at KILN/KCVG/KLUK, though a
possibility at KDAY through about 22z, as well. KCMH/KLCK are
expected to remain rain free, though can't completely rule out a
VCTS.

With a very moist boundary layer, the most vulnerable locations
can expect some BR/FG between 06-13z, namely KLUK/KILN.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ060-
     070>072-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-073-074-012000-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070>072-077>082-088-
012000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm,
with damaging wind being the primary threat. The threat for isolated
severe storms diminishes through the overnight hours. Please listen
to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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