Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Wilmington, OH

988 
WGUS71 KILN 302015
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

OHC015-025-302025-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200630T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clermont OH-Brown OH-
415 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3901 8416 3912 8420 3926 8416 3925 8392
      3902 8391

$$

JDR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
219 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will remain in the region through today which
will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms for areas
south and west of Columbus. High pressure building in from the
north will then bring slightly drier air to the area by late
Wednesday through the end of the week. Above normal temperatures
are expected by late in the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current KILN radar has area clear from convection, though
visible satellite imagery beginning to show active development
in near and SW of US 35, so expect to see convection begin
between 16-18z. Have lowered precipitation chances through that
time, and then focused along/southwest of the boundary
stretching through the area. 12z KILN sounding has PW of 1.25",
though areas to our southwest quickly ramp up to closer to 1.8,
so expectation is thunderstorms that develop, especially with
the weak steering pattern, will have the potential to dump some
heavy rain. This combined with DCAPE values between 800-1000
J/Kg will also mean isolated damaging winds.

Still holding on the decision to issue a flash flood watch, as
not enough confidence in how widespread developing convection
may be. Area with greatest potential continues to be all of
northern KY, far SE Indiana and SW Ohio.

Temperature forecast appears on track, so no adjustments here.
Upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Will see diurnally-driven storm activity near the Tri-State
shift to the SW and wane fairly quickly after sunset with the
loss of a good deal of instby. Cannot completely rule out a
lingering shower or storm in northern KY or southeast IN past
midnight with the continued high-moisture environment and
maintenance of at least some weak instby through the overnight
hours. But any coverage deep into the overnight will be isolated
in nature.

Renewed diurnally-driven activity will develop again on
Wednesday, although will not be as widespread as has been the
case the past several days -- even in the southwestern parts of
the area where the higher PWATs/instby will be maintained even
on Wednesday. Any degree of forcing for ascent appears at this
time like it will be relatively weak/limited in nature, so
activity will be more of the pop-up variety near/south of the
Ohio River and perhaps across southwest OH/southeast IN
Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the heat will be building, as
temps reach again to near 90 in central Ohio, with some spots
reaching the lower 90s as slightly drier air begins to work in
from the NE to envelop a larger part of the ILN FA by Wednesday
evening. Conditions should be mainly dry area-wide for Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture and instability gradient suppressed a little southwest
Wednesday. With the loss of daytime heating will just carry a very
low pop early Wednesday evening across the far south.

General drying trend continues to be observed in model solutions
Thursday with a skinny ridge building to ILN/s west and surface high
pressure building across the eastern Great Lakes. Can not rule out
an isold shower or storm far south but with lack of forcing will go
with a dry fcst. Warm readings with highs Thursday in the upper 80s
to around 90.

Mid level ridge to continue to build over the Upper MS Valley
Friday. This will continue to limit convection chances, so will
continue a dry forecast Friday. Expect warm highs Friday from the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Some model solution differences this weekend into early next week on
exact placement of the ridge. General trend shows a little more flow
from the northwest around the periphery of the ridge Sunday and
Monday. Have kept Saturday dry, allowing for only slight chance pops
south on Sunday and chance pops Monday -- as moisture begins to
increase. Very warm to hot temperatures expected Saturday through
Monday with highs generally in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convergent boundary straddling central Ohio and will slowly push
to the south through this evening. Along and to the SW of this
boundary, very slow moving thunderstorms will result in
occasional MVFR to even IFR visibility and even cigs in heavy
rain. This will mainly be at KILN/KCVG/KLUK, though a
possibility at KDAY through about 22z, as well. KCMH/KLCK are
expected to remain rain free, though can't completely rule out a
VCTS.

With a very moist boundary layer, the most vulnerable locations
can expect some BR/FG between 06-13z, namely KLUK/KILN.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074-010815-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-
412 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051-060>062-070>072-
077>082-088-010815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
412 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. Heavy rain rates will be possible with this activity, which
may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1241 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

OHZ071-301715-
Warren OH-
1241 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM EDT...

At 1241 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Lebanon,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Middletown, Mason, Lebanon, Monroe, Morrow, Hunter, Kings Island,
Highpoint, Four Bridges, South Lebanon, Maineville, Butlerville,
Murdock, State Route 123 at State Route 132, Hageman, State Route 63
at State Route 741, Fort Ancient, Kings Mills, Pekin and Socialville.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 20 and 35.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 29 and 32.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3944 8434 3949 8434 3954 8417 3928 8401
      3929 8427 3929 8435 3934 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 331DEG 10KT 3944 8423

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW LEBANON           39.46N 84.30W
06/30/2020                   WARREN             OH   PUBLIC

            MODERATE STREET FLOODING.

&&